A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Dynamic Server Selection using Bandwidth Probing in Wide-Area Networks

Replication is a commonly proposed solution to problems of scale associated with distributed services. However, when a service is replicated, each client must be assigned a server. Prior work has generally assumed that assignment to be static. In contrast, we propose dynamic server selection, and show that it enables application-level congestion avoidance. To make dynamic server selection practical, we demonstrate the use of three tools. In addition to direct measurements of round-trip latency, we introduce and validate two new tools: bprobe, which estimates the maximum possible bandwidth along a given path; and cprobe, which estimates the current congestion along a path. Using these tools we demonstrate dynamic server selection and compare it to previous static approaches. We show that dynamic server selection consistently outperforms static policies by as much as 50%. Furthermore, we demonstrate the importance of each of our tools in performing dynamic server selection.