On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Men and missions / by William T. Ellis ; with a foreword by John B. Sleman, Jr. ; and with a statistical and historical appendix compiled by Abigail J. Davies.

http://www.archive.org/details/menandmissions003181mbp

The Encyclopaedia of missions : descriptive, historical, biographical, statistical : with a full assortment of maps, a complete bibliography, and lists of Bible versions, missionary societies, mission stations, and a general index / edited by Edwin Munsell Bliss.

http://www.archive.org/details/encyclopaediamis02unknuoft

A Note On the Statistical Difference of Small Direct Products

We demonstrate that if two probability distributions D and E of sufficiently small min-entropy have statistical difference ε, then the direct-product distributions D^l and E^l have statistical difference at least roughly ε\s√l, provided that l is sufficiently small, smaller than roughly ε^{4/3}. Previously known bounds did not work for few repetitions l, requiring l>ε^2.

TCP-friendly SIMD Congestion Control and Its Convergence Behavior

The increased diversity of Internet application requirements has spurred recent interests in flexible congestion control mechanisms. Window-based congestion control schemes use increase rules to probe available bandwidth, and decrease rules to back off when congestion is detected. The parameterization of these control rules is done so as to ensure that the resulting protocol is TCP-friendly in terms of the relationship between throughput and packet loss rate. In this paper, we propose a novel window-based congestion control algorithm called SIMD (Square-Increase/Multiplicative-Decrease). Contrary to previous memory-less controls, SIMD utilizes history information in its control rules. It uses multiplicative decrease but the increase in window size is in proportion to the square of the time elapsed since the detection of the last loss event. Thus, SIMD can efficiently probe available bandwidth. Nevertheless, SIMD is TCP-friendly as well as TCP-compatible under RED, and it has much better convergence behavior than TCP-friendly AIMD and binomial algorithms proposed recently.

Multiplexing VBR Traffic Flows with Guaranteed Application-level QoS Using Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling

Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees are required by an increasing number of applications to ensure a minimal level of fidelity in the delivery of application data units through the network. Application-level QoS does not necessarily follow from any transport-level QoS guarantees regarding the delivery of the individual cells (e.g. ATM cells) which comprise the application's data units. The distinction between application-level and transport-level QoS guarantees is due primarily to the fragmentation that occurs when transmitting large application data units (e.g. IP packets, or video frames) using much smaller network cells, whereby the partial delivery of a data unit is useless; and, bandwidth spent to partially transmit the data unit is wasted. The data units transmitted by an application may vary in size while being constant in rate, which results in a variable bit rate (VBR) data flow. That data flow requires QoS guarantees. Statistical multiplexing is inadequate, because no guarantees can be made and no firewall property exists between different data flows. In this paper, we present a novel resource management paradigm for the maintenance of application-level QoS for VBR flows. Our paradigm is based on Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling (SRMS), in which (1) each application generates its variable-size data units at a fixed rate, (2) the partial delivery of data units is of no value to the application, and (3) the QoS guarantee extended to the application is the probability that an arbitrary data unit will be successfully transmitted through the network to/from the application.

Design and Implementation of Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling in KURT Linux

Statistical Rate Monotonic Scheduling (SRMS) is a generalization of the classical RMS results of Liu and Layland [LL73] for periodic tasks with highly variable execution times and statistical QoS requirements. The main tenet of SRMS is that the variability in task resource requirements could be smoothed through aggregation to yield guaranteed QoS. This aggregation is done over time for a given task and across multiple tasks for a given period of time. Similar to RMS, SRMS has two components: a feasibility test and a scheduling algorithm. SRMS feasibility test ensures that it is possible for a given periodic task set to share a given resource without violating any of the statistical QoS constraints imposed on each task in the set. The SRMS scheduling algorithm consists of two parts: a job admission controller and a scheduler. The SRMS scheduler is a simple, preemptive, fixed-priority scheduler. The SRMS job admission controller manages the QoS delivered to the various tasks through admit/reject and priority assignment decisions. In particular, it ensures the important property of task isolation, whereby tasks do not infringe on each other. In this paper we present the design and implementation of SRMS within the KURT Linux Operating System [HSPN98, SPH 98, Sri98]. KURT Linux supports conventional tasks as well as real-time tasks. It provides a mechanism for transitioning from normal Linux scheduling to a mixed scheduling of conventional and real-time tasks, and to a focused mode where only real-time tasks are scheduled. We overview the technical issues that we had to overcome in order to integrate SRMS into KURT Linux and present the API we have developed for scheduling periodic real-time tasks using SRMS.

An Adaptive Policy Management Approach to BGP Convergence

The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the current inter-domain routing protocol used to exchange reachability information between Autonomous Systems (ASes) in the Internet. BGP supports policy-based routing which allows each AS to independently adopt a set of local policies that specify which routes it accepts and advertises from/to other networks, as well as which route it prefers when more than one route becomes available. However, independently chosen local policies may cause global conflicts, which result in protocol divergence. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called Adaptive Policy Management Scheme (APMS), to resolve policy conflicts in a distributed manner. Akin to distributed feedback control systems, each AS independently classifies the state of the network as either conflict-free or potentially-conflicting by observing its local history only (namely, route flaps). Based on the degree of measured conflicts (policy conflict-avoidance vs. -control mode), each AS dynamically adjusts its own path preferences—increasing its preference for observably stable paths over flapping paths. APMS also includes a mechanism to distinguish route flaps due to topology changes, so as not to confuse them with those due to policy conflicts. A correctness and convergence analysis of APMS based on the substability property of chosen paths is presented. Implementation in the SSF network simulator is performed, and simulation results for different performance metrics are presented. The metrics capture the dynamic performance (in terms of instantaneous throughput, delay, routing load, etc.) of APMS and other competing solutions, thus exposing the often neglected aspects of performance.

Statistical Properties of Single and Competing Non-Linear Fast-Slow Oscillators in Noise

Statistical properties offast-slow Ellias-Grossberg oscillators are studied in response to deterministic and noisy inputs. Oscillatory responses remain stable in noise due to the slow inhibitory variable, which establishes an adaptation level that centers the oscillatory responses of the fast excitatory variable to deterministic and noisy inputs. Competitive interactions between oscillators improve the stability in noise. Although individual oscillation amplitudes decrease with input amplitude, the average to'tal activity increases with input amplitude, thereby suggesting that oscillator output is evaluated by a slow process at downstream network sites.