On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Ergodicity and Mixing Rate of One-Dimensional Cellular Automata

One-and two-dimensional cellular automata which are known to be fault-tolerant are very complex. On the other hand, only very simple cellular automata have actually been proven to lack fault-tolerance, i.e., to be mixing. The latter either have large noise probability ε or belong to the small family of two-state nearest-neighbor monotonic rules which includes local majority voting. For a certain simple automaton L called the soldiers rule, this problem has intrigued researchers for the last two decades since L is clearly more robust than local voting: in the absence of noise, L eliminates any finite island of perturbation from an initial configuration of all 0's or all 1's. The same holds for a 4-state monotonic variant of L, K, called two-line voting. We will prove that the probabilistic cellular automata Kε and Lε asymptotically lose all information about their initial state when subject to small, strongly biased noise. The mixing property trivially implies that the systems are ergodic. The finite-time information-retaining quality of a mixing system can be represented by its relaxation time Relax(⋅), which measures the time before the onset of significant information loss. This is known to grow as (1/ε)^c for noisy local voting. The impressive error-correction ability of L has prompted some researchers to conjecture that Relax(Lε) = 2^(c/ε). We prove the tight bound 2^(c1log^21/ε) ＜ Relax(Lε) ＜ 2^(c2log^21/ε) for a biased error model. The same holds for Kε. Moreover, the lower bound is independent of the bias assumption. The strong bias assumption makes it possible to apply sparsity/renormalization techniques, the main tools of our investigation, used earlier in the opposite context of proving fault-tolerance.

Eliminating Redundant Training Data Using Unsupervised Clustering Techniques

Training data for supervised learning neural networks can be clustered such that the input/output pairs in each cluster are redundant. Redundant training data can adversely affect training time. In this paper we apply two clustering algorithms, ART2 -A and the Generalized Equality Classifier, to identify training data clusters and thus reduce the training data and training time. The approach is demonstrated for a high dimensional nonlinear continuous time mapping. The demonstration shows six-fold decrease in training time at little or no loss of accuracy in the handling of evaluation data.