On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

How Well Can TCP Infer Network State?

The Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) has been the protocol of choice for many Internet applications requiring reliable connections. The design of TCP has been challenged by the extension of connections over wireless links. We ask a fundamental question: What is the basic predictive power of TCP of network state, including wireless error conditions? The goal is to improve or readily exploit this predictive power to enable TCP (or variants) to perform well in generalized network settings. To that end, we use Maximum Likelihood Ratio tests to evaluate TCP as a detector/estimator. We quantify how well network state can be estimated, given network response such as distributions of packet delays or TCP throughput that are conditioned on the type of packet loss. Using our model-based approach and extensive simulations, we demonstrate that congestion-induced losses and losses due to wireless transmission errors produce sufficiently different statistics upon which an efficient detector can be built; distributions of network loads can provide effective means for estimating packet loss type; and packet delay is a better signal of network state than short-term throughput. We demonstrate how estimation accuracy is influenced by different proportions of congestion versus wireless losses and penalties on incorrect estimation.

A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Characterization of Network-Wide Anomalies in Traffic Flows

Detecting and understanding anomalies in IP networks is an open and ill-defined problem. Toward this end, we have recently proposed the subspace method for anomaly diagnosis. In this paper we present the first large-scale exploration of the power of the subspace method when applied to flow traffic. An important aspect of this approach is that it fuses information from flow measurements taken throughout a network. We apply the subspace method to three different types of sampled flow traffic in a large academic network: multivariate timeseries of byte counts, packet counts, and IP-flow counts. We show that each traffic type brings into focus a different set of anomalies via the subspace method. We illustrate and classify the set of anomalies detected. We find that almost all of the anomalies detected represent events of interest to network operators. Furthermore, the anomalies span a remarkably wide spectrum of event types, including denial of service attacks (single-source and distributed), flash crowds, port scanning, downstream traffic engineering, high-rate flows, worm propagation, and network outage.

Bayesian Packet Loss Detection for TCP

One of TCP's critical tasks is to determine which packets are lost in the network, as a basis for control actions (flow control and packet retransmission). Modern TCP implementations use two mechanisms: timeout, and fast retransmit. Detection via timeout is necessarily a time-consuming operation; fast retransmit, while much quicker, is only effective for a small fraction of packet losses. In this paper we consider the problem of packet loss detection in TCP more generally. We concentrate on the fact that TCP's control actions are necessarily triggered by inference of packet loss, rather than conclusive knowledge. This suggests that one might analyze TCP's packet loss detection in a standard inferencing framework based on probability of detection and probability of false alarm. This paper makes two contributions to that end: First, we study an example of more general packet loss inference, namely optimal Bayesian packet loss detection based on round trip time. We show that for long-lived flows, it is frequently possible to achieve high detection probability and low false alarm probability based on measured round trip time. Second, we construct an analytic performance model that incorporates general packet loss inference into TCP. We show that for realistic detection and false alarm probabilities (as are achievable via our Bayesian detector) and for moderate packet loss rates, the use of more general packet loss inference in TCP can improve throughput by as much as 25%.

On the Relationship Between File Sizes, Transport Protocols, and Self-Similar Network Traffic

Recent measurements of local-area and wide-area traffic have shown that network traffic exhibits variability at a wide range of scales self-similarity. In this paper, we examine a mechanism that gives rise to self-similar network traffic and present some of its performance implications. The mechanism we study is the transfer of files or messages whose size is drawn from a heavy-tailed distribution. We examine its effects through detailed transport-level simulations of multiple TCP streams in an internetwork. First, we show that in a "realistic" client/server network environment i.e., one with bounded resources and coupling among traffic sources competing for resources the degree to which file sizes are heavy-tailed can directly determine the degree of traffic self-similarity at the link level. We show that this causal relationship is not significantly affected by changes in network resources (bottleneck bandwidth and buffer capacity), network topology, the influence of cross-traffic, or the distribution of interarrival times. Second, we show that properties of the transport layer play an important role in preserving and modulating this relationship. In particular, the reliable transmission and flow control mechanisms of TCP (Reno, Tahoe, or Vegas) serve to maintain the long-range dependency structure induced by heavy-tailed file size distributions. In contrast, if a non-flow-controlled and unreliable (UDP-based) transport protocol is used, the resulting traffic shows little self-similar characteristics: although still bursty at short time scales, it has little long-range dependence. If flow-controlled, unreliable transport is employed, the degree of traffic self-similarity is positively correlated with the degree of throttling at the source. Third, in exploring the relationship between file sizes, transport protocols, and self-similarity, we are also able to show some of the performance implications of self-similarity. We present data on the relationship between traffic self-similarity and network performance as captured by performance measures including packet loss rate, retransmission rate, and queueing delay. Increased self-similarity, as expected, results in degradation of performance. Queueing delay, in particular, exhibits a drastic increase with increasing self-similarity. Throughput-related measures such as packet loss and retransmission rate, however, increase only gradually with increasing traffic self-similarity as long as reliable, flow-controlled transport protocol is used.

Inference and Labeling of Metric-Induced Network Topologies

The development and deployment of distributed network-aware applications and services over the Internet require the ability to compile and maintain a model of the underlying network resources with respect to (one or more) characteristic properties of interest. To be manageable, such models must be compact, and must enable a representation of properties along temporal, spatial, and measurement resolution dimensions. In this paper, we propose a general framework for the construction of such metric-induced models using end-to-end measurements. We instantiate our approach using one such property, packet loss rates, and present an analytical framework for the characterization of Internet loss topologies. From the perspective of a server the loss topology is a logical tree rooted at the server with clients at its leaves, in which edges represent lossy paths between a pair of internal network nodes. We show how end-to-end unicast packet probing techniques could b e used to (1) infer a loss topology and (2) identify the loss rates of links in an existing loss topology. Correct, efficient inference of loss topology information enables new techniques for aggregate congestion control, QoS admission control, connection scheduling and mirror site selection. We report on simulation, implementation, and Internet deployment results that show the effectiveness of our approach and its robustness in terms of its accuracy and convergence over a wide range of network conditions.

Accelerating Internet Streaming Media Delivery Using Network-Aware Partial Caching

Internet streaming applications are adversely affected by network conditions such as high packet loss rates and long delays. This paper aims at mitigating such effects by leveraging the availability of client-side caching proxies. We present a novel caching architecture (and associated cache management algorithms) that turn edge caches into accelerators of streaming media delivery. A salient feature of our caching algorithms is that they allow partial caching of streaming media objects and joint delivery of content from caches and origin servers. The caching algorithms we propose are both network-aware and stream-aware; they take into account the popularity of streaming media objects, their bit-rate requirements, and the available bandwidth between clients and servers. Using realistic models of Internet bandwidth (derived from proxy cache logs and measured over real Internet paths), we have conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of various cache management alternatives. Our experiments demonstrate that network-aware caching algorithms can significantly reduce service delay and improve overall stream quality. Also, our experiments show that partial caching is particularly effective when bandwidth variability is not very high.

Preserving Bandwidth Using A Lazy Packet Discard Policy in ATM Networks

A number of recent studies have pointed out that TCP's performance over ATM networks tends to suffer, especially under congestion and switch buffer limitations. Switch-level enhancements and link-level flow control have been proposed to improve TCP's performance in ATM networks. Selective Cell Discard (SCD) and Early Packet Discard (EPD) ensure that partial packets are discarded from the network "as early as possible", thus reducing wasted bandwidth. While such techniques improve the achievable throughput, their effectiveness tends to degrade in multi-hop networks. In this paper, we introduce Lazy Packet Discard (LPD), an AAL-level enhancement that improves effective throughput, reduces response time, and minimizes wasted bandwidth for TCP/IP over ATM. In contrast to the SCD and EPD policies, LPD delays as much as possible the removal from the network of cells belonging to a partially communicated packet. We outline the implementation of LPD and show the performance advantage of TCP/LPD, compared to plain TCP and TCP/EPD through analysis and simulations.

Unicast-based Characterization of Network Loss Topologies

Current Internet transport protocols make end-to-end measurements and maintain per-connection state to regulate the use of shared network resources. When a number of such connections share a common endpoint, that endpoint has the opportunity to correlate these end-to-end measurements to better diagnose and control the use of shared resources. A valuable characterization of such shared resources is the "loss topology". From the perspective of a server with concurrent connections to multiple clients, the loss topology is a logical tree rooted at the server in which edges represent lossy paths between a pair of internal network nodes. We develop an end-to-end unicast packet probing technique and an associated analytical framework to: (1) infer loss topologies, (2) identify loss rates of links in an existing loss topology, and (3) augment a topology to incorporate the arrival of a new connection. Correct, efficient inference of loss topology information enables new techniques for aggregate congestion control, QoS admission control, connection scheduling and mirror site selection. Our extensive simulation results demonstrate that our approach is robust in terms of its accuracy and convergence over a wide range of network conditions.