Simultaneous Learning of Non-Linear Manifold and Dynamical Models for High-Dimensional Time Series

The goal of this work is to learn a parsimonious and informative representation for high-dimensional time series. Conceptually, this comprises two distinct yet tightly coupled tasks: learning a low-dimensional manifold and modeling the dynamical process. These two tasks have a complementary relationship as the temporal constraints provide valuable neighborhood information for dimensionality reduction and conversely, the low-dimensional space allows dynamics to be learnt efficiently. Solving these two tasks simultaneously allows important information to be exchanged mutually. If nonlinear models are required to capture the rich complexity of time series, then the learning problem becomes harder as the nonlinearities in both tasks are coupled. The proposed solution approximates the nonlinear manifold and dynamics using piecewise linear models. The interactions among the linear models are captured in a graphical model. The model structure setup and parameter learning are done using a variational Bayesian approach, which enables automatic Bayesian model structure selection, hence solving the problem of over-fitting. By exploiting the model structure, efficient inference and learning algorithms are obtained without oversimplifying the model of the underlying dynamical process. Evaluation of the proposed framework with competing approaches is conducted in three sets of experiments: dimensionality reduction and reconstruction using synthetic time series, video synthesis using a dynamic texture database, and human motion synthesis, classification and tracking on a benchmark data set. In all experiments, the proposed approach provides superior performance.

Statistical Properties of Single and Competing Non-Linear Fast-Slow Oscillators in Noise

Statistical properties offast-slow Ellias-Grossberg oscillators are studied in response to deterministic and noisy inputs. Oscillatory responses remain stable in noise due to the slow inhibitory variable, which establishes an adaptation level that centers the oscillatory responses of the fast excitatory variable to deterministic and noisy inputs. Competitive interactions between oscillators improve the stability in noise. Although individual oscillation amplitudes decrease with input amplitude, the average to'tal activity increases with input amplitude, thereby suggesting that oscillator output is evaluated by a slow process at downstream network sites.

Emergence of Tri-Phasic Muscle Activation from the Non-linear Interactions of Central and Spinal Neural Network Circuits

The origin of the tri-phasic burst pattern, observed in the EMGs of opponent muscles during rapid self-terminated movements, has been controversial. Here we show by computer simulation that the pattern emerges from interactions between a central neural trajectory controller (VITE circuit) and a peripheral neuromuscularforce controller (FLETE circuit). Both neural models have been derived from simple functional constraints that have led to principled explanations of a wide variety of behavioral and neurobiological data, including, as shown here, the generation of tri-phasic bursts.

The Construction of Arbitrary Stable Dynamics in Non-Linear Neural Networks

In this paper, two methods for constructing systems of ordinary differential equations realizing any fixed finite set of equilibria in any fixed finite dimension are introduced; no spurious equilibria are possible for either method. By using the first method, one can construct a system with the fewest number of equilibria, given a fixed set of attractors. Using a strict Lyapunov function for each of these differential equations, a large class of systems with the same set of equilibria is constructed. A method of fitting these nonlinear systems to trajectories is proposed. In addition, a general method which will produce an arbitrary number of periodic orbits of shapes of arbitrary complexity is also discussed. A more general second method is given to construct a differential equation which converges to a fixed given finite set of equilibria. This technique is much more general in that it allows this set of equilibria to have any of a large class of indices which are consistent with the Morse Inequalities. It is clear that this class is not universal, because there is a large class of additional vector fields with convergent dynamics which cannot be constructed by the above method. The easiest way to see this is to enumerate the set of Morse indices which can be obtained by the above method and compare this class with the class of Morse indices of arbitrary differential equations with convergent dynamics. The former set of indices are a proper subclass of the latter, therefore, the above construction cannot be universal. In general, it is a difficult open problem to construct a specific example of a differential equation with a given fixed set of equilibria, permissible Morse indices, and permissible connections between stable and unstable manifolds. A strict Lyapunov function is given for this second case as well. This strict Lyapunov function as above enables construction of a large class of examples consistent with these more complicated dynamics and indices. The determination of all the basins of attraction in the general case for these systems is also difficult and open.

The Synthesis of Arbitrary Stable Dynamics in Non-linear Neural Networks II: Feedback and Universality

We wish to construct a realization theory of stable neural networks and use this theory to model the variety of stable dynamics apparent in natural data. Such a theory should have numerous applications to constructing specific artificial neural networks with desired dynamical behavior. The networks used in this theory should have well understood dynamics yet be as diverse as possible to capture natural diversity. In this article, I describe a parameterized family of higher order, gradient-like neural networks which have known arbitrary equilibria with unstable manifolds of known specified dimension. Moreover, any system with hyperbolic dynamics is conjugate to one of these systems in a neighborhood of the equilibrium points. Prior work on how to synthesize attractors using dynamical systems theory, optimization, or direct parametric. fits to known stable systems, is either non-constructive, lacks generality, or has unspecified attracting equilibria. More specifically, We construct a parameterized family of gradient-like neural networks with a simple feedback rule which will generate equilibrium points with a set of unstable manifolds of specified dimension. Strict Lyapunov functions and nested periodic orbits are obtained for these systems and used as a method of synthesis to generate a large family of systems with the same local dynamics. This work is applied to show how one can interpolate finite sets of data, on nested periodic orbits.

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.