On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Measuring Bottleneck Link Speed in Package-Switched Networks

The quality of available network connections can often have a large impact on the performance of distributed applications. For example, document transfer applications such as FTP, Gopher and the World Wide Web suffer increased response times as a result of network congestion. For these applications, the document transfer time is directly related to the available bandwidth of the connection. Available bandwidth depends on two things: 1) the underlying capacity of the path from client to server, which is limited by the bottleneck link; and 2) the amount of other traffic competing for links on the path. If measurements of these quantities were available to the application, the current utilization of connections could be calculated. Network utilization could then be used as a basis for selection from a set of alternative connections or servers, thus providing reduced response time. Such a dynamic server selection scheme would be especially important in a mobile computing environment in which the set of available servers is frequently changing. In order to provide these measurements at the application level, we introduce two tools: bprobe, which provides an estimate of the uncongested bandwidth of a path; and cprobe, which gives an estimate of the current congestion along a path. These two measures may be used in combination to provide the application with an estimate of available bandwidth between server and client thereby enabling application-level congestion avoidance. In this paper we discuss the design and implementation of our probe tools, specifically illustrating the techniques used to achieve accuracy and robustness. We present validation studies for both tools which demonstrate their reliability in the face of actual Internet conditions; and we give results of a survey of available bandwidth to a random set of WWW servers as a sample application of our probe technique. We conclude with descriptions of other applications of our measurement tools, several of which are currently under development.

TCP Boston: A Fragmentation-tolerant TCP Protocol for ATM Networks

The popularity of TCP/IP coupled with the premise of high speed communication using Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology have prompted the network research community to propose a number of techniques to adapt TCP/IP to ATM network environments. ATM offers Available Bit Rate (ABR) and Unspecified Bit Rate (UBR) services for best-effort traffic, such as conventional file transfer. However, recent studies have shown that TCP/IP, when implemented using ABR or UBR, leads to serious performance degradations, especially when the utilization of network resources (such as switch buffers) is high. Proposed techniques-switch-level enhancements, for example-that attempt to patch up TCP/IP over ATMs have had limited success in alleviating this problem. The major reason for TCP/IP's poor performance over ATMs has been consistently attributed to packet fragmentation, which is the result of ATM's 53-byte cell-oriented switching architecture. In this paper, we present a new transport protocol, TCP Boston, that turns ATM's 53-byte cell-oriented switching architecture into an advantage for TCP/IP. At the core of TCP Boston is the Adaptive Information Dispersal Algorithm (AIDA), an efficient encoding technique that allows for dynamic redundancy control. AIDA makes TCP/IP's performance less sensitive to cell losses, thus ensuring a graceful degradation of TCP/IP's performance when faced with congested resources. In this paper, we introduce AIDA and overview the main features of TCP Boston. We present detailed simulation results that show the superiority of our protocol when compared to other adaptations of TCP/IP over ATMs. In particular, we show that TCP Boston improves TCP/IP's performance over ATMs for both network-centric metrics (e.g., effective throughput) and application-centric metrics (e.g., response time).

Service Provisioning in Mobile Networks Through Distributed Coordinated Resource Management

The pervasiveness of personal computing platforms offers an unprecedented opportunity to deploy large-scale services that are distributed over wide physical spaces. Two major challenges face the deployment of such services: the often resource-limited nature of these platforms, and the necessity of preserving the autonomy of the owner of these devices. These challenges preclude using centralized control and preclude considering services that are subject to performance guarantees. To that end, this thesis advances a number of new distributed resource management techniques that are shown to be effective in such settings, focusing on two application domains: distributed Field Monitoring Applications (FMAs), and Message Delivery Applications (MDAs). In the context of FMA, this thesis presents two techniques that are well-suited to the fairly limited storage and power resources of autonomously mobile sensor nodes. The first technique relies on amorphous placement of sensory data through the use of novel storage management and sample diffusion techniques. The second approach relies on an information-theoretic framework to optimize local resource management decisions. Both approaches are proactive in that they aim to provide nodes with a view of the monitored field that reflects the characteristics of queries over that field, enabling them to handle more queries locally, and thus reduce communication overheads. Then, this thesis recognizes node mobility as a resource to be leveraged, and in that respect proposes novel mobility coordination techniques for FMAs and MDAs. Assuming that node mobility is governed by a spatio-temporal schedule featuring some slack, this thesis presents novel algorithms of various computational complexities to orchestrate the use of this slack to improve the performance of supported applications. The findings in this thesis, which are supported by analysis and extensive simulations, highlight the importance of two general design principles for distributed systems. First, a-priori knowledge (e.g., about the target phenomena of FMAs and/or the workload of either FMAs or DMAs) could be used effectively for local resource management. Second, judicious leverage and coordination of node mobility could lead to significant performance gains for distributed applications deployed over resource-impoverished infrastructures.

Fast Shortest Path Distance Estimation in Large Networks

We study the problem of preprocessing a large graph so that point-to-point shortest-path queries can be answered very fast. Computing shortest paths is a well studied problem, but exact algorithms do not scale to huge graphs encountered on the web, social networks, and other applications. In this paper we focus on approximate methods for distance estimation, in particular using landmark-based distance indexing. This approach involves selecting a subset of nodes as landmarks and computing (offline) the distances from each node in the graph to those landmarks. At runtime, when the distance between a pair of nodes is needed, we can estimate it quickly by combining the precomputed distances of the two nodes to the landmarks. We prove that selecting the optimal set of landmarks is an NP-hard problem, and thus heuristic solutions need to be employed. Given a budget of memory for the index, which translates directly into a budget of landmarks, different landmark selection strategies can yield dramatically different results in terms of accuracy. A number of simple methods that scale well to large graphs are therefore developed and experimentally compared. The simplest methods choose central nodes of the graph, while the more elaborate ones select central nodes that are also far away from one another. The efficiency of the suggested techniques is tested experimentally using five different real world graphs with millions of edges; for a given accuracy, they require as much as 250 times less space than the current approach in the literature which considers selecting landmarks at random. Finally, we study applications of our method in two problems arising naturally in large-scale networks, namely, social search and community detection.

Preserving Bandwidth Using A Lazy Packet Discard Policy in ATM Networks

A number of recent studies have pointed out that TCP's performance over ATM networks tends to suffer, especially under congestion and switch buffer limitations. Switch-level enhancements and link-level flow control have been proposed to improve TCP's performance in ATM networks. Selective Cell Discard (SCD) and Early Packet Discard (EPD) ensure that partial packets are discarded from the network "as early as possible", thus reducing wasted bandwidth. While such techniques improve the achievable throughput, their effectiveness tends to degrade in multi-hop networks. In this paper, we introduce Lazy Packet Discard (LPD), an AAL-level enhancement that improves effective throughput, reduces response time, and minimizes wasted bandwidth for TCP/IP over ATM. In contrast to the SCD and EPD policies, LPD delays as much as possible the removal from the network of cells belonging to a partially communicated packet. We outline the implementation of LPD and show the performance advantage of TCP/LPD, compared to plain TCP and TCP/EPD through analysis and simulations.

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.

Eliminating Redundant Training Data Using Unsupervised Clustering Techniques

Training data for supervised learning neural networks can be clustered such that the input/output pairs in each cluster are redundant. Redundant training data can adversely affect training time. In this paper we apply two clustering algorithms, ART2 -A and the Generalized Equality Classifier, to identify training data clusters and thus reduce the training data and training time. The approach is demonstrated for a high dimensional nonlinear continuous time mapping. The demonstration shows six-fold decrease in training time at little or no loss of accuracy in the handling of evaluation data.