A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

A brief history of the Bhopal principality in Central India : from the period of its foundation, about one hundred and fifty years ago, to the present time.

http://www.archive.org/details/briefhistoryofth014373mbp

Proceedings of Sixth International Workshop on Unification

Swiss National Science Foundation; Austrian Federal Ministry of Science and Research; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 314); Christ Church, Oxford; Oxford University Computing Laboratory

On Learning Counting Functions With Queries

We investigate the problem of learning disjunctions of counting functions, which are general cases of parity and modulo functions, with equivalence and membership queries. We prove that, for any prime number p, the class of disjunctions of integer-weighted counting functions with modulus p over the domain Znq (or Zn) for any given integer q ≥ 2 is polynomial time learnable using at most n + 1 equivalence queries, where the hypotheses issued by the learner are disjunctions of at most n counting functions with weights from Zp. The result is obtained through learning linear systems over an arbitrary field. In general a counting function may have a composite modulus. We prove that, for any given integer q ≥ 2, over the domain Zn2, the class of read-once disjunctions of Boolean-weighted counting functions with modulus q is polynomial time learnable with only one equivalence query, and the class of disjunctions of log log n Boolean-weighted counting functions with modulus q is polynomial time learnable. Finally, we present an algorithm for learning graph-based counting functions.

Mapping Parallel Iterative Algorithms onto Workstation Networks

For communication-intensive parallel applications, the maximum degree of concurrency achievable is limited by the communication throughput made available by the network. In previous work [HPS94], we showed experimentally that the performance of certain parallel applications running on a workstation network can be improved significantly if a congestion control protocol is used to enhance network performance. In this paper, we characterize and analyze the communication requirements of a large class of supercomputing applications that fall under the category of fixed-point problems, amenable to solution by parallel iterative methods. This results in a set of interface and architectural features sufficient for the efficient implementation of the applications over a large-scale distributed system. In particular, we propose a direct link between the application and network layer, supporting congestion control actions at both ends. This in turn enhances the system's responsiveness to network congestion, improving performance. Measurements are given showing the efficacy of our scheme to support large-scale parallel computations.

Adding Polymorphic Abstraction to ML (Detailed Abstract)

The ML programming language restricts type polymorphism to occur only in the "let-in" construct and requires every occurrence of a formal parameter of a function (a lambda abstraction) to have the same type. Milner in 1978 refers to this restriction (which was adopted to help ML achieve automatic type inference) as a serious limitation. We show that this restriction can be relaxed enough to allow universal polymorphic abstraction without losing automatic type inference. This extension is equivalent to the rank-2 fragment of system F. We precisely characterize the additional program phrases (lambda terms) that can be typed with this extension and we describe typing anomalies both before and after the extension. We discuss how macros may be used to gain some of the power of rank-3 types without losing automatic type inference. We also discuss user-interface problems in how to inform the programmer of the possible types a program phrase may have.

Fixed Point vs. First-Order Logic on Finite Ordered Structures with Unary Relations

We prove that first order logic is strictly weaker than fixed point logic over every infinite classes of finite ordered structures with unary relations: Over these classes there is always an inductive unary relation which cannot be defined by a first-order formula, even when every inductive sentence (i.e., closed formula) can be expressed in first-order over this particular class. Our proof first establishes a property valid for every unary relation definable by first-order logic over these classes which is peculiar to classes of ordered structures with unary relations. In a second step we show that this property itself can be expressed in fixed point logic and can be used to construct a non-elementary unary relation.

A Characterization of First-Order Definable Subsets on Classes of Finite Total Orders

We give an explicit and easy-to-verify characterization for subsets in finite total orders (infinitely many of them in general) to be uniformly definable by a first-order formula. From this characterization we derive immediately that Beth's definability theorem does not hold in any class of finite total orders, as well as that McColm's first conjecture is true for all classes of finite total orders. Another consequence is a natural 0-1 law for definable subsets on finite total orders expressed as a statement about the possible densities of first-order definable subsets.

On the Size Distribution of Autonomous Systems

This paper explores reasons for the high degree of variability in the sizes of ASes that have recently been observed, and the processes by which this variable distribution develops. AS size distribution is important for a number of reasons. First, when modeling network topologies, an AS size distribution assists in labeling routers with an associated AS. Second, AS size has been found to be positively correlated with the degree of the AS (number of peering links), so understanding the distribution of AS sizes has implications for AS connectivity properties. Our model accounts for AS births, growth, and mergers. We analyze two models: one incorporates only the growth of hosts and ASes, and a second extends that model to include mergers of ASes. We show analytically that, given reasonable assumptions about the nature of mergers, the resulting size distribution exhibits a power law tail with the exponent independent of the details of the merging process. We estimate parameters of the models from measurements obtained from Internet registries and from BGP tables. We then compare the models solutions to empirical AS size distribution taken from Mercator and Skitter datasets, and find that the simple growth-based model yields general agreement with empirical data. Our analysis of the model in which mergers occur in a manner independent of the size of the merging ASes suggests that more detailed analysis of merger processes is needed.

Geometric Generalizations of the Power of Two Choices

A well-known paradigm for load balancing in distributed systems is the``power of two choices,''whereby an item is stored at the less loaded of two (or more) random alternative servers. We investigate the power of two choices in natural settings for distributed computing where items and servers reside in a geometric space and each item is associated with the server that is its nearest neighbor. This is in fact the backdrop for distributed hash tables such as Chord, where the geometric space is determined by clockwise distance on a one-dimensional ring. Theoretically, we consider the following load balancing problem. Suppose that servers are initially hashed uniformly at random to points in the space. Sequentially, each item then considers d candidate insertion points also chosen uniformly at random from the space,and selects the insertion point whose associated server has the least load. For the one-dimensional ring, and for Euclidean distance on the two-dimensional torus, we demonstrate that when n data items are hashed to n servers,the maximum load at any server is log log n / log d + O(1) with high probability. While our results match the well-known bounds in the standard setting in which each server is selected equiprobably, our applications do not have this feature, since the sizes of the nearest-neighbor regions around servers are non-uniform. Therefore, the novelty in our methods lies in developing appropriate tail bounds on the distribution of nearest-neighbor region sizes and in adapting previous arguments to this more general setting. In addition, we provide simulation results demonstrating the load balance that results as the system size scales into the millions.

On the Emergence of Highly Variable Distributions in the Autonomous System Topology

Recent studies have noted that vertex degree in the autonomous system (AS) graph exhibits a highly variable distribution [15, 22]. The most prominent explanatory model for this phenomenon is the Barabási-Albert (B-A) model [5, 2]. A central feature of the B-A model is preferential connectivity—meaning that the likelihood a new node in a growing graph will connect to an existing node is proportional to the existing node’s degree. In this paper we ask whether a more general explanation than the B-A model, and absent the assumption of preferential connectivity, is consistent with empirical data. We are motivated by two observations: first, AS degree and AS size are highly correlated [11]; and second, highly variable AS size can arise simply through exponential growth. We construct a model incorporating exponential growth in the size of the Internet, and in the number of ASes. We then show via analysis that such a model yields a size distribution exhibiting a power-law tail. In such a model, if an AS’s link formation is roughly proportional to its size, then AS degree will also show high variability. We instantiate such a model with empirically derived estimates of growth rates and show that the resulting degree distribution is in good agreement with that of real AS graphs.

Skin Color-Based Video Segmentation under Time-Varying Illumination

A novel approach for real-time skin segmentation in video sequences is described. The approach enables reliable skin segmentation despite wide variation in illumination during tracking. An explicit second order Markov model is used to predict evolution of the skin-color (HSV) histogram over time. Histograms are dynamically updated based on feedback from the current segmentation and predictions of the Markov model. The evolution of the skin-color distribution at each frame is parameterized by translation, scaling and rotation in color space. Consequent changes in geometric parameterization of the distribution are propagated by warping and resampling the histogram. The parameters of the discrete-time dynamic Markov model are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation, and also evolve over time. The accuracy of the new dynamic skin color segmentation algorithm is compared to that obtained via a static color model. Segmentation accuracy is evaluated using labeled ground-truth video sequences taken from staged experiments and popular movies. An overall increase in segmentation accuracy of up to 24% is observed in 17 out of 21 test sequences. In all but one case the skin-color classification rates for our system were higher, with background classification rates comparable to those of the static segmentation.

The Specialized Mappings Architecture

A probabilistic, nonlinear supervised learning model is proposed: the Specialized Mappings Architecture (SMA). The SMA employs a set of several forward mapping functions that are estimated automatically from training data. Each specialized function maps certain domains of the input space (e.g., image features) onto the output space (e.g., articulated body parameters). The SMA can model ambiguous, one-to-many mappings that may yield multiple valid output hypotheses. Once learned, the mapping functions generate a set of output hypotheses for a given input via a statistical inference procedure. The SMA inference procedure incorporates an inverse mapping or feedback function in evaluating the likelihood of each of the hypothesis. Possible feedback functions include computer graphics rendering routines that can generate images for given hypotheses. The SMA employs a variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for simultaneous learning of the specialized domains along with the mapping functions, and approximate strategies for inference. The framework is demonstrated in a computer vision system that can estimate the articulated pose parameters of a human’s body or hands, given silhouettes from a single image. The accuracy and stability of the SMA are also tested using synthetic images of human bodies and hands, where ground truth is known.

Discovering Clusters in Motion Time-Series Data

A new approach is proposed for clustering time-series data. The approach can be used to discover groupings of similar object motions that were observed in a video collection. A finite mixture of hidden Markov models (HMMs) is fitted to the motion data using the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. Previous approaches for HMM-based clustering employ a k-means formulation, where each sequence is assigned to only a single HMM. In contrast, the formulation presented in this paper allows each sequence to belong to more than a single HMM with some probability, and the hard decision about the sequence class membership can be deferred until a later time when such a decision is required. Experiments with simulated data demonstrate the benefit of using this EM-based approach when there is more "overlap" in the processes generating the data. Experiments with real data show the promising potential of HMM-based motion clustering in a number of applications.

Estimating 3D Hand Pose from a Cluttered Image

A method is proposed that can generate a ranked list of plausible three-dimensional hand configurations that best match an input image. Hand pose estimation is formulated as an image database indexing problem, where the closest matches for an input hand image are retrieved from a large database of synthetic hand images. In contrast to previous approaches, the system can function in the presence of clutter, thanks to two novel clutter-tolerant indexing methods. First, a computationally efficient approximation of the image-to-model chamfer distance is obtained by embedding binary edge images into a high-dimensional Euclide an space. Second, a general-purpose, probabilistic line matching method identifies those line segment correspondences between model and input images that are the least likely to have occurred by chance. The performance of this clutter-tolerant approach is demonstrated in quantitative experiments with hundreds of real hand images.