On the Convergence of Statistical Techniques for Inferring Network Traffic Demands

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study strategies to improve the convergence of a powerful statistical technique based on an Expectation-Maximization iterative algorithm. First we analyze modeling approaches to generating starting points. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we study the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm and compare it against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

Slack Stealing Job Admission Control Scheduling

In this paper, we present Slack Stealing Job Admission Control (SSJAC)---a methodology for scheduling periodic firm-deadline tasks with variable resource requirements, subject to controllable Quality of Service (QoS) constraints. In a system that uses Rate Monotonic Scheduling, SSJAC augments the slack stealing algorithm of Thuel et al with an admission control policy to manage the variability in the resource requirements of the periodic tasks. This enables SSJAC to take advantage of the 31\% of utilization that RMS cannot use, as well as any utilization unclaimed by jobs that are not admitted into the system. Using SSJAC, each task in the system is assigned a resource utilization threshold that guarantees the minimal acceptable QoS for that task (expressed as an upper bound on the rate of missed deadlines). Job admission control is used to ensure that (1) only those jobs that will complete by their deadlines are admitted, and (2) tasks do not interfere with each other, thus a job can only monopolize the slack in the system, but not the time guaranteed to jobs of other tasks. We have evaluated SSJAC against RMS and Statistical RMS (SRMS). Ignoring overhead issues, SSJAC consistently provides better performance than RMS in overload, and, in certain conditions, better performance than SRMS. In addition, to evaluate optimality of SSJAC in an absolute sense, we have characterized the performance of SSJAC by comparing it to an inefficient, yet optimal scheduler for task sets with harmonic periods.