The Retail Market for Bednets in Kenya: How Well Is It Working?

Background Achieving the goals set by Roll Back Malaria and the Government of Kenya for use of insecticide treated bednets (ITNs) will require that the private retail market for nets and insecticide treatments grow substantially. This paper applies some basic concepts of market structure and pricing to a set of recently-collected retail price data from Kenya in order to answer the question, “How well are Kenyan retail markets for ITNs working?” Methods Data on the availability and prices of ITNs at a wide range of retail outlets throughout Kenya were collected in January 2002, and vendors and manufacturers were interviewed regarding market structure. Findings Untreated nets are manufactured in Kenya by a number of companies and are widely available in large and medium-sized towns. Availability in smaller villages is limited. There is relatively little geographic price variation, and nets can be found at competitive prices in towns and cities. Marketing margins on prices appear to be within normal ranges. No finished nets are imported. Few pre-treated nets or net+treatment combinations are available, with the exception of the subsidized Supanet/Power Tab combination marketed by a donor-funded social marketing project. Conclusions Retail markets for untreated nets in Kenya are well established and appear to be competitive. Markets for treated nets and insecticide treatment kits are not well established. The role of subsidized ITN marketing projects should be monitored to ensure that these projects support, rather than hinder, the development of retail markets.

Household Health and Cocoa Production: A Baseline Survey of Smallholder Farming Households in Western Region, Ghana

Background Chronic illness and premature mortality from malaria, water-borne diseases, and respiratory illnesses have long been known to diminish the welfare of individuals and households in developing countries. Previous research has also shown that chronic diseases among farming populations suppress labor productivity and agricultural output. As the illness and death toll from HIV/AIDS continues to climb in most of sub-Saharan Africa, concern has arisen that the loss of household labor it causes will reduce crop yields, impoverish farming households, intensify malnutrition, and suppress growth in the agricultural sector. If chronic morbidity and premature mortality among individuals in farming households have substantial impacts on household production, and if a large number of households are affected, it is possible that an increase in morbidity and mortality from HIV/AIDS or other diseases could affect national aggregate output and exports. If, on the other hand, the impact at the household farm level is modest, or if relatively few households are affected, there is likely to be little effect on aggregate production across an entire country. Which of these outcomes is more likely in West Africa is unknown. Little rigorous, quantitative research has been published on the impacts of AIDS on smallholder farm production, particularly in West Africa. The handful of studies that have been conducted have looked mainly at small populations in areas of very high HIV prevalence in southern and eastern Africa. Conclusions about how HIV/AIDS, and other causes of chronic morbidity and mortality, are affecting agriculture across the continent cannot be drawn from these studies. In view of the importance of agriculture, and particularly smallholder agriculture, in the economies of most African countries and the scarcity of resources for health interventions, it is valuable to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of chronic morbidity and mortality on smallholder production of important crops in West Africa. One such crop is cocoa. In Ghana, cocoa is a crop of national importance that is produced almost exclusively by smallholder households. In 2003, Ghana was the world’s second-largest producer of cocoa. Cocoa accounted for a quarter of Ghana’s export revenues that year and generated 15 percent of employment. The success and growth of the cocoa industry is thus vital to the country’s overall social and economic development. Study Objectives and Methods In February and March 2005, the Center for International Health and Development of Boston University (CIHD) and the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness (DAEA) of the University of Ghana, with financial support from the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development and from Mars, Inc., which is a major purchaser of West African cocoa, conducted a survey of a random sample of cocoa farming households in the Western Region of Ghana. The survey documented the extent of chronic morbidity and mortality in cocoa growing households in the Western Region of Ghana, the country’s largest cocoa growing region, and analyzed the impact of morbidity and mortality on cocoa production. It aimed to answer three specific research questions. (1) What is the baseline status of the study population in terms of household size and composition, acute and chronic morbidity, recent mortality, and cocoa production? (2) What is the relationship between household size and cocoa production, and how can this relationship be used to understand the impact of adult mortality and chronic morbidity on the production of cocoa at the household level? The study population was the approximately 42,000 cocoa farming households in the southern part of Ghana’s Western Region. A random sample of households was selected from a roster of eligible households developed from existing administrative information. Under the supervision of the University of Ghana field team, enumerators were graduate students of the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness or employees of the Cocoa Services Division. A total of 632 eligible farmers participated in the survey. Of these, 610 provided complete responses to all questions needed to complete the multivariate statistical analysis reported here.

PROPAGATION OF SONIC BOOMS THROUGH A REAL, STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERE

Sonic boom propagation in a quiet) stratified) lossy atmosphere is the subject of this dissertation. Two questions are considered in detail: (1) Does waveform freezing occur? (2) Are sonic booms shocks in steady state? Both assumptions have been invoked in the past to predict sonic boom waveforms at the ground. A very general form of the Burgers equation is derived and used as the model for the problem. The derivation begins with the basic conservation equations. The effects of nonlinearity) attenuation and dispersion due to multiple relaxations) viscosity) and heat conduction) geometrical spreading) and stratification of the medium are included. When the absorption and dispersion terms are neglected) an analytical solution is available. The analytical solution is used to answer the first question. Geometrical spreading and stratification of the medium are found to slow down the nonlinear distortion of finite-amplitude waves. In certain cases the distortion reaches an absolute limit) a phenomenon called waveform freezing. Judging by the maturity of the distortion mechanism, sonic booms generated by aircraft at 18 km altitude are not frozen when they reach the ground. On the other hand, judging by the approach of the waveform to its asymptotic shape, N waves generated by aircraft at 18 km altitude are frozen when they reach the ground. To answer the second question we solve the full Burgers equation and for this purpose develop a new computer code, THOR. The code is based on an algorithm by Lee and Hamilton (J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 97, 906-917, 1995) and has the novel feature that all its calculations are done in the time domain, including absorption and dispersion. Results from the code compare very well with analytical solutions. In a NASA exercise to compare sonic boom computer programs, THOR gave results that agree well with those of other participants and ran faster. We show that sonic booms are not steady state waves because they travel through a varying medium, suffer spreading, and fail to approximate step shocks closely enough. Although developed to predict sonic boom propagation, THOR can solve other problems for which the extended Burgers equation is a good propagation model.

A Linearization of the Lambda-Calculus and Consequences

If every lambda-abstraction in a lambda-term M binds at most one variable occurrence, then M is said to be "linear". Many questions about linear lambda-terms are relatively easy to answer, e.g. they all are beta-strongly normalizing and all are simply-typable. We extend the syntax of the standard lambda-calculus L to a non-standard lambda-calculus L^ satisfying a linearity condition generalizing the notion in the standard case. Specifically, in L^ a subterm Q of a term M can be applied to several subterms R1,...,Rk in parallel, which we write as (Q. R1 \wedge ... \wedge Rk). The appropriate notion of beta-reduction beta^ for the calculus L^ is such that, if Q is the lambda-abstraction (\lambda x.P) with m\geq 0 bound occurrences of x, the reduction can be carried out provided k = max(m,1). Every M in L^ is thus beta^-SN. We relate standard beta-reduction and non-standard beta^-reduction in several different ways, and draw several consequences, e.g. a new simple proof for the fact that a standard term M is beta-SN iff M can be assigned a so-called "intersection" type ("top" type disallowed).

Amorphous Placement and Informed Diffusion for Timely Monitoring by Autonomous, Resource-Constrained, Mobile Sensors

Personal communication devices are increasingly equipped with sensors for passive monitoring of encounters and surroundings. We envision the emergence of services that enable a community of mobile users carrying such resource-limited devices to query such information at remote locations in the field in which they collectively roam. One approach to implement such a service is directed placement and retrieval (DPR), whereby readings/queries about a specific location are routed to a node responsible for that location. In a mobile, potentially sparse setting, where end-to-end paths are unavailable, DPR is not an attractive solution as it would require the use of delay-tolerant (flooding-based store-carry-forward) routing of both readings and queries, which is inappropriate for applications with data freshness constraints, and which is incompatible with stringent device power/memory constraints. Alternatively, we propose the use of amorphous placement and retrieval (APR), in which routing and field monitoring are integrated through the use of a cache management scheme coupled with an informed exchange of cached samples to diffuse sensory data throughout the network, in such a way that a query answer is likely to be found close to the query origin. We argue that knowledge of the distribution of query targets could be used effectively by an informed cache management policy to maximize the utility of collective storage of all devices. Using a simple analytical model, we show that the use of informed cache management is particularly important when the mobility model results in a non-uniform distribution of users over the field. We present results from extensive simulations which show that in sparsely-connected networks, APR is more cost-effective than DPR, that it provides extra resilience to node failure and packet losses, and that its use of informed cache management yields superior performance.

An Information Theoretic Framework for Field Monitoring Using Autonomously Mobile Sensors

We consider a mobile sensor network monitoring a spatio-temporal field. Given limited cache sizes at the sensor nodes, the goal is to develop a distributed cache management algorithm to efficiently answer queries with a known probability distribution over the spatial dimension. First, we propose a novel distributed information theoretic approach in which the nodes locally update their caches based on full knowledge of the space-time distribution of the monitored phenomenon. At each time instant, local decisions are made at the mobile nodes concerning which samples to keep and whether or not a new sample should be acquired at the current location. These decisions account for minimizing an entropic utility function that captures the average amount of uncertainty in queries given the probability distribution of query locations. Second, we propose a different correlation-based technique, which only requires knowledge of the second-order statistics, thus relaxing the stringent constraint of having a priori knowledge of the query distribution, while significantly reducing the computational overhead. It is shown that the proposed approaches considerably improve the average field estimation error by maintaining efficient cache content. It is further shown that the correlation-based technique is robust to model mismatch in case of imperfect knowledge of the underlying generative correlation structure.

Measuring Web Performance in the Wide Area

One of the most vexing questions facing researchers interested in the World Wide Web is why users often experience long delays in document retrieval. The Internet's size, complexity, and continued growth make this a difficult question to answer. We describe the Wide Area Web Measurement project (WAWM) which uses an infrastructure distributed across the Internet to study Web performance. The infrastructure enables simultaneous measurements of Web client performance, network performance and Web server performance. The infrastructure uses a Web traffic generator to create representative workloads on servers, and both active and passive tools to measure performance characteristics. Initial results based on a prototype installation of the infrastructure are presented in this paper.

Fast Synchronization of Perpetual Grouping in Laminar Visual Cortical Circuits

Perceptual grouping is well-known to be a fundamental process during visual perception, notably grouping across scenic regions that do not receive contrastive visual inputs. Illusory contours are a classical example of such groupings. Recent psychophysical and neurophysiological evidence have shown that the grouping process can facilitate rapid synchronization of the cells that are bound together by a grouping, even when the grouping must be completed across regions that receive no contrastive inputs. Synchronous grouping can hereby bind together different object parts that may have become desynchronized due to a variety of factors, and can enhance the efficiency of cortical transmission. Neural models of perceptual grouping have clarified how such fast synchronization may occur by using bipole grouping cells, whose predicted properties have been supported by psychophysical, anatomical, and neurophysiological experiments. These models have not, however, incorporated some of the realistic constraints on which groupings in the brain are conditioned, notably the measured spatial extent of long-range interactions in layer 2/3 of a grouping network, and realistic synaptic and axonal signaling delays within and across cells in different cortical layers. This work addresses the question: Can long-range interactions that obey the bipole constraint achieve fast synchronization under realistic anatomical and neurophysiological constraints that initially desynchronize grouping signals? Can the cells that synchronize retain their analog sensitivity to changing input amplitudes? Can the grouping process complete and synchronize illusory contours across gaps in bottom-up inputs? Our simulations show that the answer to these questions is Yes.

From Synapse to Self: Spikes, Synchrony, and Attentive Learning by Laminar Thalamocortical Circuits

How do our brains transform the "blooming buzzing confusion" of daily experience into a coherent sense of self that can learn and selectively attend to important information? How do local signals at multiple processing stages, none of which has a global view of brain dynamics or behavioral outcomes, trigger learning at multiple synaptic sites when appropriate, and prevent learning when inappropriate, to achieve useful behavioral goals in a continually changing world? How does the brain allow synaptic plasticity at a remarkably rapid rate, as anyone who has gone to an exciting movie is readily aware, yet also protect useful memories from catastrophic forgetting? A neural model provides a unified answer by explaining and quantitatively simulating data about single cell biophysics and neurophysiology, laminar neuroanatomy, aggregate cell recordings (current-source densities, local field potentials), large-scale oscillations (beta, gamma), and spike-timing dependent plasticity, and functionally linking them all to cognitive information processing requirements.