A Two-step Statistical Approach for Inferring Network Traffic Demands (Revises Technical Report BUCS-2003-003)

Accurate knowledge of traffic demands in a communication network enables or enhances a variety of traffic engineering and network management tasks of paramount importance for operational networks. Directly measuring a complete set of these demands is prohibitively expensive because of the huge amounts of data that must be collected and the performance impact that such measurements would impose on the regular behavior of the network. As a consequence, we must rely on statistical techniques to produce estimates of actual traffic demands from partial information. The performance of such techniques is however limited due to their reliance on limited information and the high amount of computations they incur, which limits their convergence behavior. In this paper we study a two-step approach for inferring network traffic demands. First we elaborate and evaluate a modeling approach for generating good starting points to be fed to iterative statistical inference techniques. We call these starting points informed priors since they are obtained using actual network information such as packet traces and SNMP link counts. Second we provide a very fast variant of the EM algorithm which extends its computation range, increasing its accuracy and decreasing its dependence on the quality of the starting point. Finally, we evaluate and compare alternative mechanisms for generating starting points and the convergence characteristics of our EM algorithm against a recently proposed Weighted Least Squares approach.

A Quantitative Evaluation of the AVITEWRITE Model of Handwriting Learning

Much sensory-motor behavior develops through imitation, as during the learning of handwriting by children. Such complex sequential acts are broken down into distinct motor control synergies, or muscle groups, whose activities overlap in time to generate continuous, curved movements that obey an intense relation between curvature and speed. The Adaptive Vector Integration to Endpoint (AVITEWRITE) model of Grossberg and Paine (2000) proposed how such complex movements may be learned through attentive imitation. The model suggest how frontal, parietal, and motor cortical mechanisms, such as difference vector encoding, under volitional control from the basal ganglia, interact with adaptively-timed, predictive cerebellar learning during movement imitation and predictive performance. Key psycophysical and neural data about learning to make curved movements were simulated, including a decrease in writing time as learning progresses; generation of unimodal, bell-shaped velocity profiles for each movement synergy; size scaling with isochrony, and speed scaling with preservation of the letter shape and the shapes of the velocity profiles; an inverse relation between curvature and tangential velocity; and a Two-Thirds Power Law relation between angular velocity and curvature. However, the model learned from letter trajectories of only one subject, and only qualitative kinematic comparisons were made with previously published human data. The present work describes a quantitative test of AVITEWRITE through direct comparison of a corpus of human handwriting data with the model's performance when it learns by tracing human trajectories. The results show that model performance was variable across subjects, with an average correlation between the model and human data of 89+/-10%. The present data from simulations using the AVITEWRITE model highlight some of its strengths while focusing attention on areas, such as novel shape learning in children, where all models of handwriting and learning of other complex sensory-motor skills would benefit from further research.

From Parallel Sequence Representations to Calligraphic Control: A Conspiracy of Neural Circuits

Calligraphic writing presents a rich set of challenges to the human movement control system. These challenges include: initial learning, and recall from memory, of prescribed stroke sequences; critical timing of stroke onsets and durations; fine control of grip and contact forces; and letter-form invariance under voluntary size scaling, which entails fine control of stroke direction and amplitude during recruitment and derecruitment of musculoskeletal degrees of freedom. Experimental and computational studies in behavioral neuroscience have made rapid progress toward explaining the learning, planning and contTOl exercised in tasks that share features with calligraphic writing and drawing. This article summarizes computational neuroscience models and related neurobiological data that reveal critical operations spanning from parallel sequence representations to fine force control. Part one addresses stroke sequencing. It treats competitive queuing (CQ) models of sequence representation, performance, learning, and recall. Part two addresses letter size scaling and motor equivalence. It treats cursive handwriting models together with models in which sensory-motor tmnsformations are performed by circuits that learn inverse differential kinematic mappings. Part three addresses fine-grained control of timing and transient forces, by treating circuit models that learn to solve inverse dynamics problems.