Estimating dynamic models with aggregate shocks and an application to mortgage default in Colombia

We estimate a dynamic model of mortgage default for a cohort of Colombian debtors between 1997 and 2004. We use the estimated model to study the effects on default of a class of policies that affected the evolution of mortgage balances in Colombia during the 1990's. We propose a framework for estimating dynamic behavioral models accounting for the presence of unobserved state variables that are correlated across individuals and across time periods. We extend the standard literature on the structural estimation of dynamic models by incorporating an unobserved common correlated shock that affects all individuals' static payoffs and the dynamic continuation payoffs associated with different decisions. Given a standard parametric specification the dynamic problem, we show that the aggregate shocks are identified from the variation in the observed aggregate behavior. The shocks and their transition are separately identified, provided there is enough cross-sectionavl ariation of the observeds tates.

Some parameters that affect CDMA capacity analysis. Results using GIS based simulation

In previous papers we describe a model for capacity analysis in CDMA systems using DC-Cell, a GIS based planning tool developed at Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, and MATLAB. We show some initial results of that model, and now, we are exploring different parameters like cell size, proximity between cells, number of cells in the system and “clustering” CDMA in order to improve the planning process for third generation systems. In this paper we show the results for variations of some of these parameters, specifically the cell size and number of cells. In CDMA systems is quite common to suppose only one carrier frequency for capacity estimation, and it is intuitive to think that for more base stations, mean more users. However the multiple access interference problem in CDMA systems could establish a limit for that supposition in a similar way that occurs in FDMA and TDMA systems.