Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Pervasive eHealth services a security and privacy risk awareness survey

The human factor is often recognised as a major aspect of cyber-security research. Risk and situational perception are identified as key factors in the decision making process, often playing a lead role in the adoption of security mechanisms. However, risk awareness and perception have been poorly investigated in the field of eHealth wearables. Whilst end-users often have limited understanding of privacy and security of wearables, assessing the perceived risks and consequences will help shape the usability of future security mechanisms. This paper present a survey of the the risks and situational awareness in eHealth services. An analysis of the lack of security and privacy measures in connected health devices is described with recommendations to circumvent critical situations.

Re-focusing risk assessment in forensic mental health nursing.

Editorial in the Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing, 2015, 22(7)

The effects of ageing and exercise on skeletal muscle structure and function

Musculoskeletal ageing is associated with profound morphological and functional changes that increase fall risk and disease incidence and is characterised by age-related reductions in motor unit number and atrophy of muscle fibres, particularly type II fibres. Decrements in functional strength and power are relatively modest until the 6th decade, after which the rate of loss exponentially accelerates, particularly beyond the 8th decade of life. Physical activity is a therapeutic modality that can significantly attenuate age-related decline. The underlying signature of ageing, as manifested by perturbed redox homeostasis, leads to a blunting of acute and chronic redox regulated exercise adaptations. Impaired redox regulated exercise adaptations are mechanistically related to altered exercise-induced reactive oxygen and nitrogen species generation and a resultant failure to properly activate redox regulated signaling cascades. Despite the aforementioned specific impairment in redox signaling, exercise induces a plethora of beneficial effects, irrespective of age. There is, therefore, strong evidence for promoting regular physical exercise, especially progressive resistance training as a lifelong habitual practice.