Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

The role of glucocorticoids in naturally fasting grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups: dexamethasone stimulates mass loss and protein utilisation, but not departure from the colony

Seals must manage their energy reserves carefully while they fast on land to ensure that they go to sea with sufficient fuel to sustain them until they find food. Glucocorticoids (GCs) have been implicated in the control of fuel metabolism and termination of fasting in pinnipeds. Here we tested the hypothesis that dexamethasone, an artificial GC, increases fat and protein catabolism, and induces departure from the breeding colony in wild, fasting grey seal pups. A single intramuscular dose of dexamethasone completely suppressed cortisol production for 24–72 h, demonstrating activation of GC receptors. In experiment 1, we compared the effects of a single dose of dexamethasone or saline administered 10 days after weaning on fasting mass and body composition changes, cortisol, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and glucose levels, and timing of departure from the colony. In experiment 2, we investigated the effects of dexamethasone on short-term (5 days) changes in mass loss, body composition and BUN levels. In experiment 1, dexamethasone induced a short-lived increase in mass loss, but there was no difference in timing of departure between dexamethasone- and saline-treated pups (N=10). In experiment 2, dexamethasone increased protein and water loss and prevented a decrease in BUN levels (N=11). Our data suggest changes in cortisol contribute to regulation of protein catabolism in fasting seal pups, irrespective of the sex of the animal, but do not terminate fasting. By affecting the rate of protein depletion, lasting changes in cortisol levels could influence the amount of time seal pups have to find food, and thus may have important consequences for their survival.