Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Assisting digital forensic analysis via exploratory information visualisation

Background: Digital forensics is a rapidly expanding field, due to the continuing advances in computer technology and increases in data stage capabilities of devices. However, the tools supporting digital forensics investigations have not kept pace with this evolution, often leaving the investigator to analyse large volumes of textual data and rely heavily on their own intuition and experience. Aim: This research proposes that given the ability of information visualisation to provide an end user with an intuitive way to rapidly analyse large volumes of complex data, such approached could be applied to digital forensics datasets. Such methods will be investigated; supported by a review of literature regarding the use of such techniques in other fields. The hypothesis of this research body is that by utilising exploratory information visualisation techniques in the form of a tool to support digital forensic investigations, gains in investigative effectiveness can be realised. Method:To test the hypothesis, this research examines three different case studies which look at different forms of information visualisation and their implementation with a digital forensic dataset. Two of these case studies take the form of prototype tools developed by the researcher, and one case study utilises a tool created by a third party research group. A pilot study by the researcher is conducted on these cases, with the strengths and weaknesses of each being drawn into the next case study. The culmination of these case studies is a prototype tool which was developed to resemble a timeline visualisation of the user behaviour on a device. This tool was subjected to an experiment involving a class of university digital forensics students who were given a number of questions about a synthetic digital forensic dataset. Approximately half were given the prototype tool, named Insight, to use, and the others given a common open-source tool. The assessed metrics included: how long the participants took to complete all tasks, how accurate their answers to the tasks were, and how easy the participants found the tasks to complete. They were also asked for their feedback at multiple points throughout the task. Results:The results showed that there was a statistically significant increase in accuracy for one of the six tasks for the participants using the Insight prototype tool. Participants also found completing two of the six tasks significantly easier when using the prototype tool. There were no statistically significant different difference between the completion times of both participant groups. There were no statistically significant differences in the accuracy of participant answers for five of the six tasks. Conclusions: The results from this body of research show that there is evidence to suggest that there is the potential for gains in investigative effectiveness when information visualisation techniques are applied to a digital forensic dataset. Specifically, in some scenarios, the investigator can draw conclusions which are more accurate than those drawn when using primarily textual tools. There is also evidence so suggest that the investigators found these conclusions to be reached significantly more easily when using a tool with a visual format. None of the scenarios led to the investigators being at a significant disadvantage in terms of accuracy or usability when using the prototype visual tool over the textual tool. It is noted that this research did not show that the use of information visualisation techniques leads to any statistically significant difference in the time taken to complete a digital forensics investigation.

Design, modelling, simulation and integration of cyber physical systems: methods and applications

The main drivers for the development and evolution of Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) are the reduction of development costs and time along with the enhancement of the designed products. The aim of this survey paper is to provide an overview of different types of system and the associated transition process from mechatronics to CPS and cloud-based (IoT) systems. It will further consider the requirement that methodologies for CPS-design should be part of a multi-disciplinary development process within which designers should focus not only on the separate physical and computational components, but also on their integration and interaction. Challenges related to CPS-design are therefore considered in the paper from the perspectives of the physical processes, computation and integration respectively. Illustrative case studies are selected from different system levels starting with the description of the overlaying concept of Cyber Physical Production Systems (CPPSs). The analysis and evaluation of the specific properties of a sub-system using a condition monitoring system, important for the maintenance purposes, is then given for a wind turbine.