Factors influencing the radiative surface temperature of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups during early and late lactation

The aim of this study was to examine the variation in body surface temperature of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups throughout lactation in response to different environmental conditions. Radiative surface temperatures (T r, °C) of pups were measured on the Isle of May (56°11′N, 02°33′W), southeast Scotland from 29 October to 25 November 2003. Records were obtained from a total of 60 pups (32 female and 28 male) from three different pupping sites during early and late lactation. Pups were sheltered from high wind speeds but air temperature, humidity and solar radiation at pupping sites were similar to general meteorological conditions. The mean T r of all pups was 15.8°C (range 7.7–29.7°C) at an average air temperature of 10.2°C (range 6.5–13.8°C). There was no difference in the mean T r of pups between early and late lactation. However, the T r varied between different regions of the body with hind flippers on average 2–6°C warmer than all other areas measured. There was no difference in mean T r of male and female pups and pup body mass did not account for the variation in T r during early or late lactation. Throughout the day there was an increase in the T r of pups and this explained 20–28% of the variation in T r depending on stage of lactation. There was no difference in the mean T r of pups between pupping sites or associated with different substrate types. Wind speed and substrate temperature had no effect on the T r of pups. However, solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity accounted for 48% of the variation in mean T r of pups during early lactation. During late lactation air temperature and solar radiation alone accounted for 43% of the variation in T r. These results indicate that environmental conditions explain only some of the variation in T r of grey seal pups in natural conditions. Differences in T r however indicate that the cost of thermoregulation for pups will vary throughout lactation. Further studies examining intrinsic factors such as blubber thickness and activity levels are necessary before developing reliable biophysical models for grey seals.

Performance of protective factors assessment in risk prediction for adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

Protective factors are neglected in risk assessment in adult psychiatric and criminal justice populations. This review investigated the predictive efficacy of selected tools that assess protective factors. Five databases were searched using comprehensive terms for records up to June 2014, resulting in 17 studies (n = 2,198). Results were combined in a multilevel meta-analysis using the R (R Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2015) metafor package (Viechtbauer, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010, 36, 1). Prediction of outcomes was poor relative to a reference category of violent offending, with the exception of prediction of discharge from secure units. There were no significant differences between the predictive efficacy of risk scales, protective scales, and summary judgments. Protective factor assessment may be clinically useful, but more development is required. Claims that use of these tools is therapeutically beneficial require testing.

Indoor environment and the impact on the health of pre-exisiting asthmatics at work: the development of a risk management framework

This thesis examines the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in Guernsey and the impacts on pre-existing asthmatics. Whilst air quality in Guernsey is generally good, the levels of NO2 exceed UK standards in several locations. The evidence indicates that people suffering from asthma have exacerbation of their symptoms if exposed to elevated levels of air pollutants including NO2, although this research has never been carried out in Guernsey before. In addition, exposure assessment of individuals is rarely carried out and research in this area is limited due to the complexity of undertaking such a study, which will include a combination of exposures in the home, the workplace and ambient exposures, which vary depending on the individual daily experience. For the first time in Guernsey, this research has examined NO2 levels in correlation with asthma patient admissions to hospital, assessment of NO2 exposures in typical homes and typical workplaces in Guernsey. The data showed a temporal correlation between NO2 levels and the number of hospital admissions and the trend from 2008-2012 was upwards. Statistical analysis of the data did not show a significant linear correlation due to the small size of the data sets. Exposure assessment of individuals showed a spatial variation in exposures in Guernsey and assessment in indoor environments showed that real-time analysis of NO2 levels needs to be undertaken if indoor micro environments for NO2 are the be assessed adequately. There was temporal and spatial variation in NO2 concentrations measured using diffusion tubes, which provide a monthly mean value, and analysers measuring NO2 concentrations in real time. The research shows that building layout and design are important factors for good air flow and ventilation and the dispersion of NO2 indoors. Environmental Health Officers have statutory responsibilities for ambient air quality, hygiene of buildings and workplace environments and this role needs to be co-ordinated with healthcare professionals to improve health outcomes for asthmatics. The outcome of the thesis was the development of a risk management framework for pre-existing asthmatics at work for use by regulators of workplaces and an information leaflet to assist in improving health outcomes for asthmatics in Guernsey.