Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

Optimization of aqueous extraction conditions for the recovery of phenolic compounds and antioxidants from lemon pomace

The aim of this study was to optimize the aqueous extraction conditions for the recovery of phenolic compounds and antioxidant capacity of lemon pomace using response surface methodology. An experiment based on Box–Behnken design was conducted to analyse the effects of temperature, time and sample-to-water ratio on the extraction of total phenolic compounds, total flavonoids, proanthocyanidins and antioxidant capacity. Sample-to-solvent ratio had a negative effect on all the dependent variables, while extraction temperature and time had a positive effect only on TPC yields and ABTS antioxidant capacity. The optimal extraction conditions were 95 oC, 15 min, and a sample-to-solvent ratio of 1:100 g/ml. Under these conditions, the aqueous extracts had the same content of TPC and TF as well as antioxidant capacity in comparison with those of methanol extracts obtained by sonication. Therefore these conditions could be applied for further extraction and isolation of phenolic compounds from lemon pomace.

HSP70 abundance and antioxidant capacity in feeding and fasting gray seal pups: suckling is associated with higher levels of key cellular defenses

Heat shock proteins (HSPs) and antioxidants are key cellular defenses against stress. Seals routinely undergo protracted fasting, which is normally associated with physiological stress in other animals. We tested the hypotheses that (1) relative HSP70 protein abundance is higher in liver and blubber of fasting relative to suckling wild gray seal pups; (2) differences in HSP70 are mirrored in tissue superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase activity, as well as glutathione levels; (3) extracellular HSP70 correlates with hepatic and blubber HSP70 abundance; and (4) protein carbonylation, an index of oxidative damage, is lower in tissues with higher levels of these cellular stress markers. In contrast to our expectation, suckling pups had higher relative HSP70 abundance and glutathione levels in liver and blubber and higher hepatic catalase activity. Plasma HSP70 did not correlate with liver or blubber abundance of the protein. Suckling pups did not experience greater protein carbonylation, suggesting that cellular protective mechanisms prevent protein damage despite an apparent increase in cellular stress. SOD activity was not affected by nutritional state, but in blubber tissue, it was positively correlated with blubber thickness. Greater requirements for antioxidants and HSPs in suckling pups or in animals with thicker blubber could arise from rapid protein synthesis, high metabolic fuel availability, and/or exposure to lipophilic toxins. Developmental and nutritional changes in cellular defenses have important implications for gray seals’ susceptibility to additional stress exposure.

The role of glucocorticoids in naturally fasting grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups: dexamethasone stimulates mass loss and protein utilisation, but not departure from the colony

Seals must manage their energy reserves carefully while they fast on land to ensure that they go to sea with sufficient fuel to sustain them until they find food. Glucocorticoids (GCs) have been implicated in the control of fuel metabolism and termination of fasting in pinnipeds. Here we tested the hypothesis that dexamethasone, an artificial GC, increases fat and protein catabolism, and induces departure from the breeding colony in wild, fasting grey seal pups. A single intramuscular dose of dexamethasone completely suppressed cortisol production for 24–72 h, demonstrating activation of GC receptors. In experiment 1, we compared the effects of a single dose of dexamethasone or saline administered 10 days after weaning on fasting mass and body composition changes, cortisol, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and glucose levels, and timing of departure from the colony. In experiment 2, we investigated the effects of dexamethasone on short-term (5 days) changes in mass loss, body composition and BUN levels. In experiment 1, dexamethasone induced a short-lived increase in mass loss, but there was no difference in timing of departure between dexamethasone- and saline-treated pups (N=10). In experiment 2, dexamethasone increased protein and water loss and prevented a decrease in BUN levels (N=11). Our data suggest changes in cortisol contribute to regulation of protein catabolism in fasting seal pups, irrespective of the sex of the animal, but do not terminate fasting. By affecting the rate of protein depletion, lasting changes in cortisol levels could influence the amount of time seal pups have to find food, and thus may have important consequences for their survival.

The Effect of Mark Enhancement Techniques on the Subsequent Detection of Saliva

There appears to be a limited but growing body of research on the sequential analysis/treatment of multiple types of evidence. The development of an integrated forensic approach is necessary to maximise evidence recovery and to ensure that a particular treatment is not detrimental to other types of evidence. This study aims to assess the effect of latent and blood mark enhancement techniques (e.g. fluorescence, ninhydrin, acid violet 17, black iron-oxide powder suspension) on the subsequent detection of saliva. Saliva detection was performed by means of a presumptive test (Phadebas®) in addition to analysis by a rapid stain identification (RSID) kit test and confirmatory DNA testing. Additional variables included a saliva depletion series and a number of different substrates with varying porosities as well as different ageing periods. Examination and photography under white light and fluorescence was carried out prior to and after chemical enhancement All enhancement techniques (except Bluestar® Forensic Magnum luminol) employed in this study resulted in an improved visualisation of the saliva stains, although the inherent fluorescence of saliva was sometimes blocked after chemical treatment. The use of protein stains was, in general, detrimental to the detection of saliva. Positive results were less pronounced after the use of black iron-oxide powder suspension, cyanoacrylate fuming followed by BY40 and ninhydrin when compared to the respective positive controls. The application of Bluestar® Forensic Magnum luminol and black magnetic powder proved to be the least detrimental, with no significant difference between the test results and the positive controls. The use of non-destructive fluorescence examination provided good visualisation; however, only the first few marks in the depletion were observed. Of the samples selected for DNA analysis only depletion 1 samples contained sufficient DNA quantity for further processing using standard methodology. The 28 day delay between sample deposition and collection resulted in a 5-fold reduction in the amount of useable DNA. When sufficient DNA quantities were recovered, enhancement techniques did not have a detrimental effect on the ability to generate DNA profiles. This study aims to contribute to a strategy for maximising evidence recovery and efficiency for the detection of latent marks and saliva. The results demonstrate that most of the enhancement techniques employed in this study were not detrimental to the subsequent detection of saliva by means of presumptive, confirmative and DNA tests.

Encapsulation of ascorbic acid promotes the reduction of Maillard reaction products in UHT milk

The presence of amino groups and carbonyls renders fortified milk with ascorbic acid particularly susceptible to the reduction of available lysine and to the formation of Maillard reaction products (MRPs), as Nε-(Carboxyethyl)-L-lysine (CEL), Nε-(Carboxymethyl)-L-lysine (CML), Amadori products (APs) and off-flavors. A novel approach was proposed to control the Maillard reaction (MR) in fortified milk: ascorbic acid was encapsulated in a lipid coating and the effects were tested after a lab scale UHT treatment. Encapsulation promoted a delayed release of ascorbic acid and a reduction in the formation of MRPs. Total lysine increased up to 45% in milk with encapsulated ascorbic acid, while reductions in CML, CEL and furosine ranged from 10% to 53% compared with control samples. The effects were also investigated towards the formation of amide-AGEs (advanced glycation end products) by high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) revealing that several mechanisms coincide with the MR in the presence of ascorbic acid (AA).

Using passive acoustics and shore based surveys to investigate the use of Lundy Island’s near shore water by small odontocetes

The use of waters around Lundy by dolphins and porpoises was measured using summer shore-based watches and passive acoustic surveillance between July 2011 and July 2012. Common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) were the only cetacean species observed during shore-based surveys. C-PODs moored on the Ethel and MV Robert wrecks close to the Lundy coast showed a peak in delphinid vocal activity during August 2011. Passive acoustic detections of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) were highest during ebb tidal phases and most often associated with the tidal rip at the south of the island. These findings show tidal and monthly influences on odontocete behaviour and highlight the value of continuous, passive acoustic monitoring for these highly mobile marine predators around Lundy.

Effects of handling regime and sex on changes in cortisol, thyroid hormones and body mass in fasting grey seal pups

Survival of seal pups may be affected by their ability to respond appropriately to stress. Chronic stress can adversely affect secretion of cortisol and thyroid hormones, which contribute to the control of fuel utilisation. Repeated handling could disrupt the endocrine response to stress and/or negatively impact upon mass changes during fasting. Here we investigated the effects of handling regime on cortisol and thyroid hormone levels, and body mass changes, in fasting male and female grey seal pups (Halichoerus grypus). Females had higher thyroid hormone levels than males throughout fasting and showed a reduction in cortisol midway through the fast that was not seen in males. This may reflect sex-specific fuel allocation or development. Neither handling frequency nor cumulative contact time affected plasma cortisol or thyroid hormone levels, the rate of increase in cortisol over the first five minutes of physical contact or the pattern of mass loss during fasting in either sex. The endocrine response to stress and the control of energy balance in grey seal pups appear to be robust to repeated, short periods of handling. Our results suggest that routine handling should have no additional impact on these animals than general disturbance caused by researchers moving around the colony.

Functional analysis of the 5′ flanking region of the human G6PC3 gene: regulation of promoter activity by glucose, pyruvate, AMP kinase and the pentose phosphate pathway

G6PC3 is a widely expressed isoform of glucose-6-phosphatase, found in many foetal and adult tissues. Mutations in this gene cause developmental abnormalities and severe neutropenia due to abolition of glucose recycling between the cytoplasm and endoplasmic reticulum. Low G6PC3 expression as a result of promoter polymorphisms or dysregulation could produce similar outcomes. Here we investigated the regulation of human G6PC3 promoter activity. HeLa and H4IIE cells were transiently transfected with G6PC3 promoter coupled to the firefly luciferase gene, and promoter activity was measured by dual luciferase assay. Activity was highest in a 453 bp segment of the G6PC3 promoter, from − 455 to − 3 relative to the transcriptional start site. This promoter was unresponsive to glucostatic hormones. Its activity increased significantly between 1 and 5.5 mM glucose, and was not elevated further by glucose concentrations up to 25 mM. Pyruvate increased its activity, but β-hydroxybutyrate and sodium acetate did not. Promoter activity was reduced by inhibitors of hexokinase, glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase and the oxidative branch of the pentose phosphate pathway, but not by a transketolase inhibitor. Deletion of two adjacent Enhancer-boxes (− 274 to − 279 and − 299 to − 304) reduced promoter activity and abolished the glucose effect, suggesting they could function as a glucose response element. Deletion of an additional downstream 140 bp (− 140 to − 306) restored activity, but not the glucose response, suggesting the presence of repressor elements in this region. 5-Aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide 1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR) reduced promoter activity, showing dependence on AMP-kinase. Regulation of the G6PC3 promoter is thus radically different to that of the hepatic isoform, G6PC. It is sensitive to carbohydrate, but not to fatty acid metabolites, and at much lower physiological concentrations. Based on these findings, we speculate that reduced G6PC3 expression could occur during hypoglycemic episodes in vivo, which are common in utero and in the postnatal period. If such episodes lower G6PC3 expression they could place the foetus or infant at risk of impaired immune function and development, and this possibility requires further examination both in vitro and in vivo.

Effects of age and body mass on development of diving capabilities of gray seal pups: costs and benefits of the postweaning fast

Development of adequate diving capabilities is crucial for survival of seal pups and may depend on age and body size. We tracked the diving behavior of 20 gray seal pups during their first 3 mo at sea using satellite relay data loggers. We employed quantile analysis to track upper limits of dive duration and percentage time spent diving, and lower limits of surface intervals. When pups first left the breeding colony, extreme (ninety-fifth percentile) dive duration and percentage time spent diving were positively correlated with age, but not mass, at departure. Extreme dive durations and percentage time spent diving peaked at [Formula: see text] d of age at values comparable with those of adults, but were not sustained. Greater peaks in extreme percentage time spent diving occurred in pups that had higher initial values, were older at their peak, and were heavier at departure. Pups that were smaller and less capable divers when they left the colony improved extreme dive durations and percentage time spent diving more rapidly, once they were at sea. Minimum survival time correlated positively with departure mass. Pups that were heavier at weaning thus benefitted from being both larger and older at departure, but smaller pups faced a trade-off. While age at departure had a positive effect on early dive performance, departure mass impacted on peak percentage time spent diving and longer-term survival. We speculate that once small pups have attained a minimum degree of physiological development to support diving, they would benefit by leaving the colony when younger but larger to maximize limited fuel reserves, rather than undergoing further maturation on land away from potential food resources, because poor divers may be able to "catch up" once at sea.

Effects of mass and body composition on fasting fuel utilisation in grey seal pups (Halichoerus grypus Fabricius): an experimental study using supplementary feeding

This study used supplementary feeding to test the hypothesis that fuel partitioning during the postweaning fast in grey seal pups is affected by size and composition of energy reserves at weaning, and by extra provisioning. Mass and body composition changes were measured during suckling and fasting to investigate the effect of natural differences in energy reserves at weaning on subsequent allocation of fat and protein to energy use. We fed seven pups for 5 days after weaning, to investigate the effect of increased fuel availability, and particularly protein, on fuel utilisation. After correcting for protein used during the moult, the proportional contribution of fat was 86–99% of total energy use. Pups with greater energy reserves, i.e. those that were heavier and fatter at weaning, had higher rates of fat and energy use. There was no significant relationship between adiposity at weaning and proportional contribution of fat to energy use, perhaps due to a limited sample size or range of body masses and adiposity. Supplemented individuals used energy, specifically fat, much faster and utilised proportionally less of their endogenous protein by departure than non-supplemented individuals. Fat metabolism contributed a similar percentage to daily energy use in both groups. These findings show that pups spare protein, even when energy use is dramatically increased. Pups that receive greater maternal provisioning and lay down more protein may have increased survival chances at sea. This study highlights the importance of protein reserves in first year survival of grey seal pups.

Molecular cloning and expression of leptin in gray and harbor seal blubber, bone marrow, and lung and its potential role in marine mammal respiratory physiology

Leptin is a multifunctional hormone, produced predominantly in adipocytes. It regulates energy balance through its impact on appetite and fat metabolism, and its concentration indicates the size of body fat reserves. Leptin also plays a vital role in stretch-induced surfactant production during alveolar development in the fetus. The structure, expression pattern, and role of leptin have not previously been explored in marine mammals. Phocid seals undergo cyclical changes in body composition as a result of prolonged fasting and intensive foraging bouts and experience rapid, dramatic, and repeated changes in lung volume during diving. Here, we report the tissue-specific expression pattern of leptin in these animals. This is the first demonstration of leptin expression in the lung tissue of a mature mammal, in addition to its expression in the blubber and bone marrow, in common with other animals. We propose a role for leptin in seal pulmonary surfactant production, in addition to its likely role in long-term energy balance. We identify substitutions in the phocine leptin sequence in regions normally highly conserved between widely distinct vertebrate groups, and, using a purified seal leptin antiserum, we confirm the presence of the leptin protein in gray seal lung and serum fractions. Finally, we report the substantial inadequacies of using heterologous antibodies to measure leptin in unextracted gray seal serum.

Factors influencing the radiative surface temperature of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups during early and late lactation

The aim of this study was to examine the variation in body surface temperature of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups throughout lactation in response to different environmental conditions. Radiative surface temperatures (T r, °C) of pups were measured on the Isle of May (56°11′N, 02°33′W), southeast Scotland from 29 October to 25 November 2003. Records were obtained from a total of 60 pups (32 female and 28 male) from three different pupping sites during early and late lactation. Pups were sheltered from high wind speeds but air temperature, humidity and solar radiation at pupping sites were similar to general meteorological conditions. The mean T r of all pups was 15.8°C (range 7.7–29.7°C) at an average air temperature of 10.2°C (range 6.5–13.8°C). There was no difference in the mean T r of pups between early and late lactation. However, the T r varied between different regions of the body with hind flippers on average 2–6°C warmer than all other areas measured. There was no difference in mean T r of male and female pups and pup body mass did not account for the variation in T r during early or late lactation. Throughout the day there was an increase in the T r of pups and this explained 20–28% of the variation in T r depending on stage of lactation. There was no difference in the mean T r of pups between pupping sites or associated with different substrate types. Wind speed and substrate temperature had no effect on the T r of pups. However, solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity accounted for 48% of the variation in mean T r of pups during early lactation. During late lactation air temperature and solar radiation alone accounted for 43% of the variation in T r. These results indicate that environmental conditions explain only some of the variation in T r of grey seal pups in natural conditions. Differences in T r however indicate that the cost of thermoregulation for pups will vary throughout lactation. Further studies examining intrinsic factors such as blubber thickness and activity levels are necessary before developing reliable biophysical models for grey seals.

Diurnal and seasonal variations in the duration and depth of the longest dives in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina): possible physiological and behavioural constraints

This study seeks to understand how the physiological constraints of diving may change on a daily and seasonal basis. Dive data were obtained from southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from South Georgia using satellite relay data loggers. We analysed the longest (95th percentile) dive durations as proxies for physiological dive limits. A strong, significant relationship existed between the duration of these dives and the time of day and week of year in which they were performed. The depth of the deepest dives also showed a significant, but far less consistent, relationship with local time of day and season. Changes in the duration of the longest dives occurred irrespective of their depth. Dives were longest in the morning (04:00-12:00 h) and shortest in the evening (16:00-00:00 h). The size of the fluctuation varied among animals from 4.0 to 20.0 min. The daily pattern in dive depth was phase-shifted in relation to the diurnal rhythm in dive duration. Dives were deeper at midday and shallower around midnight. Greater daily changes in duration occurred in seals feeding in the open ocean than in those foraging on the continental shelf. The seasonal peak in the duration of the longest dives coincided with austral midwinter. The size of the increase in dive duration from autumn/spring to winter ranged from 11.5 to 30.0 min. Changes in depth of the longest dives were not consistently associated with particular times of year. The substantial diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in maximum dive duration may be a result of changes in the physiological capacity to remain submerged, in addition to temporal changes in the ecological constraints on dive behaviour. We speculate about the role of melatonin as a hormonal mediator of diving capability.