Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Some problems and errors in cytogenetic biodosimetry

Human radiosensitivity is a quantitative trait that is generally subject to binomial distribution. Individual radiosensitivity, however, may deviate significantly from the mean (by 2-3 standard deviations). Thus, the same dose of radiation may result in different levels of genotoxic damage (commonly measured as chromosome aberration rates) in different individuals. There is significant genetic component in individual radiosensitivity. It is related to carriership of variant alleles of various single-nucleotide polymorphisms (most of these in genes coding for proteins functioning in DNA damage identification and repair); carriership of different number of alleles producing cumulative effects; amplification of gene copies coding for proteins responsible for radioresistance, mobile genetic elements, and others. Among the other factors influencing individual radioresistance are: radioadaptive response; bystander effect; levels of endogenous substances with radioprotective and antimutagenic properties and environmental factors such as lifestyle and diet, physical activity, psychoemotional state, hormonal state, certain drugs, infections and others. These factors may have radioprotective or sensibilising effects. Apparently, there are too many factors that may significantly modulate the biological effects of ionising radiation. Thus, conventional methodologies for biodosimetry (specifically, cytogenetic methods) may produce significant errors if personal traits that may affect radioresistance are not accounted for.