Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality among cardiogenic shock patients. Prognostic and therapeutic implications

Cardiogenic shock (CS) has a poor prognosis. The heterogeneity in the mortality through different subgroups suggests that some factors can be useful to perform risk stratification and guide management. We aimed to find predictors of in-hospital mortality in these patients. We analyzed all cases of cardiogenic shock due to medical conditions admitted in our intensive acute cardiovascular care unity from November 2010 till November 2015. Clinical, biochemical and hemodynamic variables were registered, as was the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profile at 24 h of CS diagnosis. From a total of 281 patients, 28 died within the first 24 h and were not included in the analysis. A total of 253 patients survived the first 24 h, mean age was 68.8 ± 14.4 years, and 174 (68.8%) were men. Etiologies: acute coronary syndrome 146 (57.7%), acute heart failure 60 (23.7%), arrhythmias 35 (13.8%), and others 12 (4.8%). A total of 91 patients (36.0%) died during hospitalization. We found the following independent predictors of in-hospital mortality: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.032, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.003–1.062), blood glucose (OR 1.004, 95% CI 1.001–1.008), heart rate (OR 1.014, 95% CI 1.001–1.028), and INTERMACS profile (OR 0.168, 95% CI 0.107–0.266). In patients with CS the INTERMACS profile at 24 h of diagnosis was associated with higher in-hospital mortality. This and other prognostic variables (age, blood glucose, and heart rate) may be useful for risk stratification and to select appropriate medical or invasive interventions.