Predictors of in-hospital mortality among cardiogenic shock patients. Prognostic and therapeutic implications

Cardiogenic shock (CS) has a poor prognosis. The heterogeneity in the mortality through different subgroups suggests that some factors can be useful to perform risk stratification and guide management. We aimed to find predictors of in-hospital mortality in these patients. We analyzed all cases of cardiogenic shock due to medical conditions admitted in our intensive acute cardiovascular care unity from November 2010 till November 2015. Clinical, biochemical and hemodynamic variables were registered, as was the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profile at 24 h of CS diagnosis. From a total of 281 patients, 28 died within the first 24 h and were not included in the analysis. A total of 253 patients survived the first 24 h, mean age was 68.8 ± 14.4 years, and 174 (68.8%) were men. Etiologies: acute coronary syndrome 146 (57.7%), acute heart failure 60 (23.7%), arrhythmias 35 (13.8%), and others 12 (4.8%). A total of 91 patients (36.0%) died during hospitalization. We found the following independent predictors of in-hospital mortality: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.032, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.003–1.062), blood glucose (OR 1.004, 95% CI 1.001–1.008), heart rate (OR 1.014, 95% CI 1.001–1.028), and INTERMACS profile (OR 0.168, 95% CI 0.107–0.266). In patients with CS the INTERMACS profile at 24 h of diagnosis was associated with higher in-hospital mortality. This and other prognostic variables (age, blood glucose, and heart rate) may be useful for risk stratification and to select appropriate medical or invasive interventions.

Valve surgery in active infective endocarditis: a simple score to predict in-hospital prognosis

Aims Surgery for infective endocarditis (IE) is associated with high mortality. Our objectives were to describe the experience with surgical treatment for IE in Spain, and to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. Methods Prospective cohort of 1000 consecutive patients with IE. Data were collected in 26 Spanish hospitals. Results Surgery was performed in 437 patients (43.7%). Patients treated with surgery were younger and predominantly male. They presented fewer comorbid conditions and more often had negative blood cultures and heart failure. In-hospital mortality after surgery was lower than in the medical therapy group (24.3 vs 30.7%, p = 0.02). In patients treated with surgery, endocarditis involved a native valve in 267 patients (61.1%), a prosthetic valve in 122 (27.9%), and a pacemaker lead with no clear further valve involvement in 48 (11.0%). The most common aetiologies were Staphylococcus (186, 42.6%), Streptococcus (97, 22.2%), and Enterococcus (49, 11.2%). The main indications for surgery were heart failure and severe valve regurgitation. A risk score for in-hospital mortality was developed using 7 prognostic variables with a similar predictive value (OR between 1.7 and 2.3): PALSUSE: prosthetic valve, age ≥ 70, large intracardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, urgent surgery, sex [female], EuroSCORE ≥ 10. In-hospital mortality ranged from 0% in patients with a PALSUSE score of 0 to 45.4% in patients with PALSUSE score > 3. Conclusions The prognosis of IE surgery is highly variable. The PALSUSE score could help to identify patients with higher in-hospital mortality.

Using multivariate sequential patterns to improve survival prediction in intensive care burn unit

Resuscitation and stabilization are key issues in Intensive Care Burn Units and early survival predictions help to decide the best clinical action during these phases. Current survival scores of burns focus on clinical variables such as age or the body surface area. However, the evolution of other parameters (e.g. diuresis or fluid balance) during the first days is also valuable knowledge. In this work we suggest a methodology and we propose a Temporal Data Mining algorithm to estimate the survival condition from the patient’s evolution. Experiments conducted on 480 patients show the improvement of survival prediction.

Commentary on "Stress ulcer prophylaxis in hospitalized patients, subsequent use in primary care and physicians' opinions about acid-suppressive therapy"

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