Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.

Improving accessibility in discussion forums

No data (2013)

Bacteremic pneumonia before and after withdrawal of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine from a public vaccination program in Spain: a case-control study

The objective of this study is to compare the incidence and epidemiology of bacteremic community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the setting of changes in 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) coverage. In the region of Madrid, universal immunization with the PCV13 started in May 2010. In July 2012, public funding ceased. Vaccination coverage decreased from >95% to 82% in 2013 and to 67% in 2014. We performed a multicenter surveillance and case-control study from 2009-2014. Cases were hospitalized children with bacteremic CAP. Controls were children selected 1:1 from next-admitted with negative blood cultures and typical, presumed bacterial CAP. Annual incidence of bacteremic CAP declined from 7.9/100 000 children (95% CI 5.1-11.1) in 2009 to 2.1/100 000 children (95% CI 1.1-4.1) in 2012. In 2014, 2 years after PCV13 was withdrawn from the universal vaccination program, the incidence of bacteremic CAP increased to 5.4/100 000 children (95% CI 3.5-8.4). We enrolled 113 cases and 113 controls. Streptococcus pneumoniae caused most of bloodstream infections (78%). Empyema was associated with bacteremia (P = .003, OR 3.6; 95% CI 1.4-8.9). Simple parapneumonic effusion was not associated with bacteremia. Incomplete PCV immunization was not a risk factor for bacteremic pneumonia.