The total margin of exposure of ethanol and acetaldehyde for heavy drinkers consuming cider or vodka

Heavy drinkers in Scotland may consume 1600 g ethanol per week. Due to its low price, cider may be preferred over other beverages. Anecdotal evidence has linked cider to specific health hazards beyond other alcoholic beverages. To examine this hypothesis, nine apple and pear cider samples were chemically analysed for constituents and contaminants. None of the products exceeded regulatory or toxicological thresholds, but the regular occurrence of acetaldehyde in cider was detected. To provide a quantitative risk assessment, two collectives of exclusive drinkers of cider and vodka were compared and the intake of acetaldehyde was estimated using probabilistic MonteeCarlo type analysis. The cider consumers were found to ingest more than 200-times the amount of acetaldehyde consumed by vodka consumers. The margins of exposure (MOE) of acetaldehyde were 224 for the cider and over 220,000 for vodka consumers. However, if the effects of ethanol were considered in a cumulative assessment of the combined MOE, the effect of acetaldehyde was minor and the combined MOE for both groups was 0.3. We suggest that alcohol policy priority should be given on reducing ethanol intake by measures such as minimum pricing, rather than to focus on acetaldehyde.

Process control in agile supply chain network.

The work comprises a new theoretical development applied to aid decision making in an increasingly important commercial sector. Agile supply, where small volumes of high margin, short life cycle innovative products are offered, is increasingly carried out through a complex global supply chain network. We outline an equilibrium solution in such a supply chain network, which works through limited cooperation and coordination along edges (links) in the network. The links constitute the stochastic modelling entities rather than the nodes of the network. We utilise newly developed phase plane analysis to identify, model and predict characteristic behaviour in supply chain networks. The phase plane charts profile the flow of inventory and identify out of control conditions. They maintain quality within the network, as well as intelligently track the way the network evolves in conditions of changing variability. The methodology is essentially distribution free, relying as it does on the study of forecasting errors, and can be used to examine contractual details as well as strategic and game theoretical concepts between decision-making components (agents) of a network. We illustrate with typical data drawn from supply chain agile fashion products.

International transport costs and the margins of Intra-Latin American maritime trade.

This paper focuses on the analysis of the relationship between maritime trade and transport cost in Latin America. The analysis is based on disaggregated (SITC 5 digit level) trade data for intra Latin maritime trade routes over the period 1999-2004. The research contributes to the literature by disentangling the effects of transport costs on the range of traded goods (extensive margin) and the traded volumes of goods (intensive margin) of international trade in order to test some of the predictions of the trade theories that introduce firm heterogeneity in productivity, as well as fixed costs of exporting. Recent investigations show that spatial frictions (distance) reduce trade mainly by trimming the number of shipments and that most firms ship only to geographically proximate customers, instead of shipping to many destinations in quantities that decrease in distance. Our analyses confirm these findings and show that the opposite pattern is observed for ad-valorem freight rates that reduce aggregate trade values mainly by reducing the volume of imported goods (intensive margin).