MOTION - A New On-line Model for Urban Traffic Signal Control.

This paper presents MOTION, a modular on-line model for urban traffic signal control. It consists of a network and a local level and builds on enhanced traffic state estimation. Special consideration is given to the prioritization of public transit. MOTION provides possibilities for the interaction with integrated urban management systems.

An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups, to much larger groups with increased stratification. But the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quanti- tative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the co-evolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: 1. surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; 2. high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were likely met for the first time during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations.

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions between alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This work investigates the influence of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1,503 participants is obtained and a Mixed Logit Model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker, and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model points out that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main contribution of this work is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.