Essays in Energy Economics

This thesis presents four essays in energy economics. The first essay investigates one of the workhorse models of resource economics, the Hotelling model of an inter-temporally optimizing resource extracting firm. The Hotelling model provides a convincing theory of fundamental concepts like resource scarcity, but very few empirical validations of the model have been conducted. This essay attempts to empirically validate the Hotelling model by first expanding it to include exploration activity and market power and then using a newly constructed data set for the uranium mining industry to test whether a major resource extracting mining firm in the industry is following the theory’s predictions. The results show that the theory is rejected in all considered settings. The second and third essays investigate the difference in market outcomes under spot-market based trade as compared to long-term contract based trade in oligopolistic markets with investments. The second essay investigates analytically the difference in market outcomes in an electricity market setting, showing that investments and consumer welfare may be higher under spot-market based trade than under long-term contracts. The third essay proposes techniques to solve large-scale models of this kind, empirically, by exploring the practicability of this approach in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. The final essay investigates the influence of policy uncertainty on investment decisions. With France debating the role of nuclear technology, this essay analyses how policy uncertainty regarding nuclear power in France may feature in the French and European power sector. Applying a stochastic model for the European power system, the analysis shows that the costs of uncertainty in this particular application are rather low compared to the overall costs of a nuclear phase-out.

Near-infrared polarimetry in the galactic center. On properties of Sagittarius A* and a dusty S-cluster object

Near-infrared polarimetry observation is a powerful tool to study the central sources at the center of the Milky Way. My aim of this thesis is to analyze the polarized emission present in the central few light years of the Galactic Center region, in particular the non-thermal polarized emission of Sagittarius~A* (Sgr~A*), the electromagnetic manifestation of the super-massive black hole, and the polarized emission of an infrared-excess source in the literature referred to as DSO/G2. This source is in orbit about Sgr~A*. In this thesis I focus onto the Galactic Center observations at $\lambda=2.2~\mu m$ ($K_\mathrm{s}$-band) in polarimetry mode during several epochs from 2004 to 2012. The near-infrared polarized observations have been carried out using the adaptive optics instrument NAOS/CONICA and Wollaston prism at the Very Large Telescope of ESO (European Southern Observatory). Linear polarization at 2.2 $\mu m$, its flux statistics and time variation, can be used to constrain the physical conditions of the accretion process onto the central super-massive black hole. I present a statistical analysis of polarized $K_\mathrm{s}$-band emission from Sgr~A* and investigate the most comprehensive sample of near-infrared polarimetric light curves of this source up to now. I find several polarized flux excursions during the years and obtain an exponent of about 4 for the power-law fitted to polarized flux density distribution of fluxes above 5~mJy. Therefore, this distribution is closely linked to the single state power-law distribution of the total $K_\mathrm{s}$-band flux densities reported earlier by us. I find polarization degrees of the order of 20\%$\pm$10\% and a preferred polarization angle of $13^o\pm15^o$. Based on simulations of polarimetric measurements given the observed flux density and its uncertainty in orthogonal polarimetry channels, I find that the uncertainties of polarization parameters under a total flux density of $\sim 2\,{\mathrm{mJy}}$ are probably dominated by observational uncertainties. At higher flux densities there are intrinsic variations of polarization degree and angle within rather well constrained ranges. Since the emission is most likely due to optically thin synchrotron radiation, the obtained preferred polarization angle is very likely reflecting the intrinsic orientation of the Sgr~A* system i.e. an accretion disk or jet/wind scenario coupled to the super-massive black hole. Our polarization statistics show that Sgr~A* must be a stable system, both in terms of geometry, and the accretion process. I also investigate an infrared-excess source called G2 or Dusty S-cluster Object (DSO) moving on a highly eccentric orbit around the Galaxy's central black hole, Sgr~A*. I use for the first time the near-infrared polarimetric imaging data to determine the nature and the properties of DSO and obtain an improved $K_\mathrm{s}$-band identification of this source in median polarimetry images of different observing years. The source starts to deviate from the stellar confusion in 2008 data and it does not show a flux density variability based on our data set. Furthermore, I measure the polarization degree and angle of this source and conclude based on the simulations on polarization parameters that it is an intrinsically polarized source with a varying polarization angle as it approaches Sgr~A* position. I use the interpretation of the DSO polarimetry measurements to assess its possible properties.