Estimation of Convective Extreme Events over Germany based on Large Scale Parameters

Strong convective events can produce extreme precipitation, hail, lightning or gusts, potentially inducing severe socio-economic impacts. These events have a relatively small spatial extension and, in most cases, a short lifetime. In this study, a model is developed for estimating convective extreme events based on large scale conditions. It is shown that strong convective events can be characterized by a Weibull distribution of radar-based rainfall with a low shape and high scale parameter value. A radius of 90km around a station reporting a convective situation turned out to be suitable. A methodology is developed to estimate the Weibull parameters and thus the occurrence probability of convective events from large scale atmospheric instability and enhanced near-surface humidity, which are usually found on a larger scale than the convective event itself. Here, the probability for the occurrence of extreme convective events is estimated from the KO-index indicating the stability, and relative humidity at 1000hPa. Both variables are computed from ERA-Interim reanalysis. In a first version of the methodology, these two variables are applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution and to estimate the occurrence of a convective event. The developed method shows significant skill in estimating the occurrence of convective events as observed at synoptic stations, lightning measurements, and severe weather reports. In order to take frontal influences into account, a scheme for the detection of atmospheric fronts is implemented. While generally higher instability is found in the vicinity of fronts, the skill of this approach is largely unchanged. Additional improvements were achieved by a bias-correction and the use of ERA-Interim precipitation. The resulting estimation method is applied to the ERA-Interim period (1979-2014) to establish a ranking of estimated convective extreme events. Two strong estimated events that reveal a frontal influence are analysed in detail. As a second application, the method is applied to GCM-based decadal predictions in the period 1979-2014, which were initialized every year. It is shown that decadal predictive skill for convective event frequencies over Germany is found for the first 3-4 years after the initialization.

Essays on market design and regulation in electricity systems

This thesis discusses market design and regulation in electricity systems, focusing on the information exchange of the regulated grid firm and the generation firms as well as the regulation of the grid firm. In the first chapter, an economic framework is developed to consistently analyze different market designs and the information exchange between the grid firm and the generation firms. Perfect competition between the generation firms and perfect regulation of the grid firm is assumed. A numerical algorithm is developed and its feasibility demonstrated on a large-scale problem. The effects of different market designs for the Central Western European (CWE) region until 2030 are analyzed. In the second chapter, the consequences of restricted grid expansion within the current market design in the CWE region until 2030 are analyzed. In the third chapter the assumption of efficient markets is modified. The focus of the analysis is then, whether and how inefficiencies in information availability and processing affect different market designs. For different parameter settings, nodal and zonal pricing are compared regarding their welfare in the spot and forward market. In the fourth chapter, information asymmetries between the regulator and the regulated firm are analyzed. The optimal regulatory strategy for a firm, providing one output with two substitutable inputs, is defined. Thereby, one input and the absolute quantity of inputs is not observable for the regulator. The result is then compared to current regulatory approaches.