A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

A MODEL FOR EVALUATING IMPACT OF BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE

Business Process Management (BPM) is able to organize and frame a company focusing in the improvement or assurance of performance in order to gain competitive advantage. Although it is believed that BPM improves various aspects of organizational performance, there has been a lack of empirical evidence about this. The present study has the purpose to develop a model to show the impact of business process management in organizational performance. To accomplish that, the theoretical basis required to know the elements that configurate BPM and the measures that can evaluate the BPM success on organizational performance is built through a systematic literature review (SLR). Then, a research model is proposed according to SLR results. Empirical data will be collected from a survey of  larg and mid-sized industrial and service companies headquartered in Brazil. A quantitative analysis will be performed using structural equation modeling (SEM) to show if the direct effects among BPM and organizational performance can be considered statistically significant. At the end will discuss these results and their managerial and cientific implications.Keywords: Business process management (BPM). Organizational performance. Firm performance. Business models. Structural Equation Modeling. Systematic Literature Review.