16 resultados para Posterior Probability

em Biblioteca Digital da Produ


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Bovine coronavirus has been associated with diarrhoea in newborn calves, winter dysentery in adult cattle and respiratory tract infections in calves and feedlot cattle. In Cuba, the presence of BCoV was first reported in 2006. Since then, sporadic outbreaks have continued to occur. This study was aimed at deepening the knowledge of the evolution, molecular markers of virulence and epidemiology of BCoV in Cuba. A total of 30 samples collected between 2009 and 2011 were used for PCR amplification and direct sequencing of partial or full S gene. Sequence comparison and phylogenetic studies were conducted using partial or complete S gene sequences as phylogenetic markers. All Cuban bovine coronavirus sequences were located in a single cluster supported by 100% bootstrap and 1.00 posterior probability values. The Cuban bovine coronavirus sequences were also clustered with the USA BCoV strains corresponding to the GenBank accession numbers EF424621 and EF424623, suggesting a common origin for these viruses. This phylogenetic cluster was also the only group of sequences in which no recombination events were detected. Of the 45 amino acid changes found in the Cuban strains, four were unique. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

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Objectives. Verify the influence of different filler distributions on the subcritical crack growth (SCG) susceptibility, Weibull parameters (m and sigma(0)) and longevity estimated by the strength-probability-time (SPT) diagram of experimental resin composites. Methods. Four composites were prepared, each one containing 59 vol% of glass powder with different filler sizes (d(50) = 0.5; 0.9; 1.2 and 1.9 mu m) and distributions. Granulometric analyses of glass powders were done by a laser diffraction particle size analyzer (Sald-7001, Shimadzu, USA). SCG parameters (n and sigma(f0)) were determined by dynamic fatigue (10(-2) to 10(2) MPa/s) using a biaxial flexural device (12 x 1.2 mm; n = 10). Twenty extra specimens of each composite were tested at 10(0) MPa/s to determine m and sigma(0). Specimens were stored in water at 37 degrees C for 24 h. Fracture surfaces were analyzed under SEM. Results. In general, the composites with broader filler distribution (C0.5 and C1.9) presented better results in terms of SCG susceptibility and longevity. C0.5 and C1.9 presented higher n values (respectively, 31.2 +/- 6.2(a) and 34.7 +/- 7.4(a)). C1.2 (166.42 +/- 0.01(a)) showed the highest and C0.5 (158.40 +/- 0.02(d)) the lowest sigma(f0) value (in MPa). Weibull parameters did not vary significantly (m: 6.6 to 10.6 and sigma(0): 170.6 to 176.4 MPa). Predicted reductions in failure stress (P-f = 5%) for a lifetime of 10 years were approximately 45% for C0.5 and C1.9 and 65% for C0.9 and C1.2. Crack propagation occurred through the polymeric matrix around the fillers and all the fracture surfaces showed brittle fracture features. Significance. Composites with broader granulometric distribution showed higher resistance to SCG and, consequently, higher longevity in vitro. (C) 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: The urethrovesical anastomosis is a particular challenging step of robot assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). Failure to achieve a watertight anastomosis is associated with postoperative urinary leak and its consequences, which include paralytic ileus, prolonged catheterization, urinary peritonitis and possibly re-intervention. The bidirectional barbed suture is a new technology that may lead to improve the quality of the urethrovesical anastomosis. Objective: To present our surgical technique of urethrovesical anastomosis, bladder neck reconstruction and posterior reconstruction, using a bidirectional barbed suture. Material and methods: The bladder neck reconstruction, posterior reconstruction and vesicourethral anastomosis were performed using a 2-0 synthetic absorbable bidirectional monofilament barbed suture Results: All cases were finished successfully without major complication or conversion to laparoscopic or open surgery. Conclusion: The authors successfully modified their RARP technique to take advantage of the properties of the bidirectional barbed suture. Comparative studies that evaluate objective outcomes such as leakage rates and operative time are needed to definitely establish the benefits of this device in comparison to the traditional absorbable monofilament. (C) 2011 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

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In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the change-point of the hazard function. The change-point could be a maximum for unimodal hazard functions or a minimum for bathtub forms of hazard functions and is usually of great interest in medical or industrial applications. For lifetime distributions where this change-point of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can also be obtained. Considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution for the lifetime data, we have different forms for the hazard function: constant, increasing, unimodal, decreasing or bathtub forms. This model gives great flexibility of fit, but we do not have analytic expressions for the change-point of the hazard function. In this way, we consider the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to get posterior summaries for the change-point of the hazard function considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution.

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The aim of this study was to assess, in vivo, the accuracy of the NovApex (R) electronic foramen locator in determining working length (WL) in vital and necrotic posterior teeth. The NovApex (R) was used in 144 canals: 35 teeth with vital pulps (68 canals) and 42 teeth with necrotic pulps (76 canals). WL was measured with the NovApex (R) locator and confirmed using the radiographic method. Differences between electronic and radiographic measurements ranging between 0.0 and 0.4 millimeters were classified as acceptable; differences equal to or greater than 0.5 millimeter were considered unacceptable. Pearson's chi-square test was used to assess the influence of pulp condition on the accuracy of NovApex (R) (alpha = 0.05). Regardless of pulp condition, differences between electronic and radiographic WL measurements were acceptable in 73.61% of the canals. No statistically significant differences in accuracy were observed when comparing vital and necrotic canals (p > 0.05). There were 38 unacceptable measurements. In none of these cases was the file tip located beyond the radiographic apex; in 32, it was located short of the NovApex (R) measurement. Pulp condition had no significant effect on the accuracy of NovApex (R).

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This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

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Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

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Introduction: This study aimed to evaluate the close proximity established between the maxillary sinus floor and posterior teeth roots apices by using cone-beam computed tomographic scanning. Methods: The relationship of maxillary sinuses and posterior teeth roots, which were divided into 2 groups, was analyzed using i-CAT Vision software (Imaging Sciences, Hatfield, PA). Group 1 included all root apices found in close contact with the maxillary sinus floor without sinus floor elevation, whereas group 2 included all root apices that were protruded within the sinus producing an elevation of the bony cortical. Results: A total of 100 maxillary sinuses and 601 roots apices were evaluated. Group 1 presented 130 of 601 (21.6%) roots and group 2 presented 86 of 601 (14.3%) roots. Conclusions: The second molar mesiobuccal root apex is frequently found in close proximity with the sinus floor, and the relation between these anatomic structures should be considered in order to prevent an iatrogenic procedure and minimize the risks from an infectious disease within the sinus

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Objective: This study evaluated the variations in the anterior cranial base (S-N), posterior cranial base (S-Ba) and deflection of the cranial base (SNBa) among three different facial patterns (Pattern I, II and III). Method: A sample of 60 lateral cephalometric radiographs of Brazilian Caucasian patients, both genders, between 8 and 17 years of age was selected. The sample was divided into 3 groups (Pattern I, II and III) of 20 individuals each. The inclusion criteria for each group were the ANB angle, Wits appraisal and the facial profile angle (G’.Sn.Pg’). To compare the mean values obtained from (SNBa, S-N, S-Ba) each group measures, the ANOVA test and Scheffé’s Post-Hoc test were applied. Results and Conclusions: There was no statistically significant difference for the deflection angle of the cranial base among the different facial patterns (Patterns I, II and III). There was no significant difference for the measures of the anterior and posterior cranial base between the facial Patterns I and II. The mean values for S-Ba were lower in facial Pattern III with statistically significant difference. The mean values of S-N in the facial Pattern III were also reduced, but without showing statistically significant difference. This trend of lower values in the cranial base measurements would explain the maxillary deficiency and/or mandibular prognathism features that characterize the facial Pattern III.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

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The hypothalamus is a forebrain structure critically involved in the organization of defensive responses to aversive stimuli. Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)ergic dysfunction in dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamic nuclei is implicated in the origin of panic-like defensive behavior, as well as in pain modulation. The present study was conducted to test the difference between these two hypothalamic nuclei regarding defensive and antinociceptive mechanisms. Thus, the GABA A antagonist bicuculline (40 ng/0.2 µL) or saline (0.9% NaCl) was microinjected into the dorsomedial or posterior hypothalamus in independent groups. Innate fear-induced responses characterized by defensive attention, defensive immobility and elaborate escape behavior were evoked by hypothalamic blockade of GABA A receptors. Fear-induced defensive behavior organized by the posterior hypothalamus was more intense than that organized by dorsomedial hypothalamic nuclei. Escape behavior elicited by GABA A receptor blockade in both the dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamus was followed by an increase in nociceptive threshold. Interestingly, there was no difference in the intensity or in the duration of fear-induced antinociception shown by each hypothalamic division presently investigated. The present study showed that GABAergic dysfunction in nuclei of both the dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamus elicit panic attack-like defensive responses followed by fear-induced antinociception, although the innate fear-induced behavior originates differently in the posterior hypothalamus in comparison to the activity of medial hypothalamic subdivisions.

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The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of active and passive lacebacks on antero-posterior position of maxillary first molars and central incisors during leveling phase. Twenty-three subjects with Class I and Class II malocclusion were treated with first premolars extraction using preadjusted appliances (MBT 0.022-inch brackets). The leveling phase was performed with stainless steel archwires only. The sample was divided into 2 groups: 14 subjects received active lacebacks (Group 1) and 9 subjects received passive lacebacks (Group 2). Lacebacks were made from 0.008-inch ligature wire. Lateral cephalometric radiographs were taken pre- and post-leveling phase. Student's t-test was applied to determine the differences between pre- and post-leveling mean values and to determine the mean differences between groups. In Group I, the first molars showed a significant mesial movement, whereas no change was observed in Group 2. In both groups, maxillary central incisor crowns moved to lingual side. In conclusion, active laceback produced anchorage loss of maxillary first molars whereas passive laceback did not affect the position of these teeth. Active and passive lacebacks were effective in preventing central incisor proclination.

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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequencies of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and to analyze the probability of their incompatibility with platelet transfusions. METHODS: Platelet antigen genotyping was performed by sequence-specific primer polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) for the HPA-1a, HPA-1b, HPA-2a, HPA-2b, HPA-3a, HPA-3b, HPA-4a, HPA-4b, HPA-5a, HPA-5b; HPA-15a, HPA-15b alleles in 150 patients of the Hematology Service of the Hospital das Clínicas (FMUSP). RESULTS: The allele frequencies found were: HPA-1a: 0.837; HPA-1b: 0.163; HPA-2a: 0.830; HPA-2b: 0.170; HPA-3a: 0.700; HPA-3b: 0.300; HPA-4a: 1; HPA-4b: 0; HPA-5a: 0.887; HPA-5b: 0.113; HPA-15a: 0.457 and HPA-15b: 0.543. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study showed that the A allele is more common in the population than the B allele, except for HPA-15. This suggests that patients homozygous for the B allele are more predisposed to present alloimmunization and refractoriness to platelet transfusions by immune causes. Platelet genotyping could be of great value in the diagnosis of alloimmune thrombocytopenia and to provide compatible platelet concentrates for these patients.