The role of pneumonia scores in the emergency room in patients infected by 2009 H1N1 infection

Despite the severity of pneumonia in patients with pandemic influenza A infection (H1N1), no validated risk scores associated with H1N1 pneumonia were tested. In this prospective observational study, we analyzed data of consecutive patients in our emergency room, hospitalized because of pneumonia between July and August 2009 in a public hospital in Brazil. The following pneumonia scoring systems were applied: the SMART-COP rule; the Pneumonia Severity Index; and the CURB-65 rule. Of 105 patients with pneumonia, 53 had H1N1 infection. Among them, only 9.5% that had a low risk according to SMART-COP were admitted to ICU, compared with 36.8% of those with the Pneumonia Severity Index score of 1-2 and 49% of those with CURB-65 score of 0-1. The SMART-COP had an accuracy of 83% to predict ICU admission. The SMART-COP rule presented the best performance to indicate ICU admission in patients with H1N1 pneumonia. European Journal of Emergency Medicine 19: 200-202 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Pandemic unadjuvanted influenza A (H1N1) vaccine in dermatomyositis and polymyositis: Immunogenicity independent of therapy and no harmful effect in disease

The goal of the present study was to evaluate the influence of the influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccine on dermatomyositis/polymyositis (DM/PM) disease parameters and the potential deleterious effect of therapy on immune response. Thirty-seven DM and 21 PM patients (Bohan and Peter's criteria) were gender- and age-matched to 116 healthy controls. Seroprotection, seroconversion, the geometric mean titers (GMTs) and the factor increase (FI) in the GMTs were calculated. Disease safety was determined from a muscle enzyme analysis and the DM/PM scores [patient's visual analog scale (VAS), physician's VAS, manual muscle strength (MMT-8)] evaluated pre- and post-vaccination. The mean age (43.1 +/- 9.9 vs. 43.8 +/- 8.4 years, p = 0.607) and gender distribution (p = 1.00) were comparable between the patients and controls. After 21 days, seroconversion (p = 0.394), seroprotection (p = 0.08), GMT (p = 0.573) and the FI in the GMT (p = 0.496) were similar in both groups. The disease and muscle parameters remained stable throughout the study, including the creatine kinase (p = 0.20) and aldolase levels (p = 0.98), the physicians' VAS (p = 1.00), the patients' VAS (p = 1.00) and the MMT-8 (p = 1.00). Regarding the influence of treatment, the seroconversion rates were comparable between the controls and patients undergoing treatment with glucocorticoid (GC) (p = 0.969), GC >0.5 mg/kg/day (p = 0.395) and GC + immunosuppressors (p = 0.285). Vaccine-related adverse events were mild and similar in the DM/PM and control groups (p > 0.05). Our data support the administration of the pandemic influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccination in DM/PM, as we found no short-term harmful effects related to the disease itself and adequate immunogenicity in spite of therapy. Further studies are necessary to identify any long-term adverse effects in patients with these diseases.(c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TNF blockers show distinct patterns of immune response to the pandemic influenza A H1N1 vaccine in inflammatory arthritis patients

Methods. One hundred and twenty patients (RA, n = 41; AS, n = 57; PsA, n = 22) on anti-TNF agents (monoclonal, n = 94; soluble receptor, n = 26) were compared with 116 inflammatory arthritis patients under DMARDs and 117 healthy controls. Seroprotection, seroconversion (SC), geometric mean titre, factor increase in geometric mean titre and adverse events were evaluated 21 days after vaccination. Results. After immunization, SC rates (58.2% vs 74.3%, P = 0.017) were significantly lower in SpA patients receiving anti-TNF therapy, whereas no difference was observed in RA patients receiving this therapy compared with healthy controls (P = 0.067). SpA patients receiving mAbs (infliximab/adalimumab) had a significantly lower SC rate compared with healthy controls (51.6% vs 74.3%, P = 0.002) or those on DMARDs (51.6% vs 74.7%, P = 0.005), whereas no difference was observed for patients on etanercept (86.7% vs 74.3%, P = 0.091). Further analysis of non-seroconverting and seroconverting SpA patients revealed that the former group had a higher mean age (P = 0.003), a higher frequency of anti-TNF (P = 0.031) and mAbs (P = 0.001) and a lower frequency of MTX (P = 0.028). In multivariate logistic regression, only older age (P = 0.015) and mAb treatment (P = 0.023) remained significant factors for non-SC in SpA patients. Conclusion. This study revealed a distinct disease pattern of immune response to the pandemic influenza vaccine in inflammatory arthritis patients receiving anti-TNF agents, illustrated by a reduced immunogenicity solely in SpA patients using mAbs. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="www.clinicaltrials.gov" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01151644.

Influenza A/H1N1 vaccination of patients with SLE: can antimalarial drugs restore diminished response under immunosuppressive therapy?

Objective. To assess the efficacy and safety of pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in SLE under different therapeutic regimens. Methods. A total of 555 SLE patients and 170 healthy controls were vaccinated with a single dose of a non-adjuvanted preparation. According to current therapy, patients were initially classified as SLE No Therapy (n = 75) and SLE with Therapy (n = 480). Subsequent evaluations included groups under monotherapy: chloroquine (CQ) (n = 105), prednisone (PRED) epsilon 20 mg (n = 76), immunosuppressor (IS) (n = 95) and those with a combination of these drugs. Anti-H1N1 titres and seroconversion (SC) rate were evaluated at entry and 21 days post-vaccination. Results. The SLE with Therapy group had lower SC compared with healthy controls (59.0 vs 80.0%; P < 0.0001), whereas the SLE No Therapy group had equivalent SC (72 vs 80.0%; P = 0.18) compared with healthy controls. Further comparison revealed that the SC of SLE No Therapy (72%) was similar to the CQ group (69.5%; P = 0.75), but it was significantly reduced in PRED epsilon 20 mg (53.9%; P = 0.028), IS (55.7%; P = 0.035) and PRED epsilon 20 mg + IS (45.4%; P = 0.038). The concomitant use of CQ in each of these later regimens was associated with SC responses comparable with SLE No Therapy group (72%): PRED epsilon 20 mg + CQ (71.4%; P = 1.00), IS + CQ (65.2%; P = 0.54) and PRED epsilon 20 mg + IS + CQ (57.4%; P = 0.09). Conclusion. Pandemic influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccine response is diminished in SLE under immunosuppressive therapy and antimalarials seems to restore this immunogenicity.

Influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccine in juvenile dermatomyositis: reduced immunogenicity in patients under immunosuppressive therapy

Objectives The aim of the present paper is to assess the influence of demographic, muscle enzymes, JDM scores and treatment on non-adjuvanted influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccine immunogenicity in juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) patients. Methods Thirty JDM patients and 81 healthy age-matched controls were vaccinated. All participants were evaluated pre- and 21 days post-vaccination and serology for anti-HI NI was performed by haemagglutination inhibition assay. Muscle enzymes, JDM scores and treatment were evaluated before and after vaccination. Adverse events were reported. Results After immunisation seroconversion rates were significantly lower in JDM patients compared to age-matched controls (86.7 vs. 97.5%, p=0.044), whereas seropmtection (p=0.121), geometric mean titres (GMT) (p=0.992) and factor increase (FI) in GMT (p=0.827) were similar in both groups. Clinical and labomtorial evaluations revealed that JDM scores and muscle enzymes remained stable throughout the study (p>0.05). A higher frequency of chronic course was observed in non-seroconverted compared to seroconverted (100% vs. 27%, p=0.012). Regarding treatment, a lower rate of seroconversion was observed in patients under prednisone>20mg/day (50% vs. 4%, p=0.039), and in those treated with a combination of prednisone, methotrexate and cyclosporine (50% vs. 4%, p=0.039). Local and systemic vaccine adverse events were mild and similar in patients and controls (p>0.05). Conclusion This study identified that chronic course and immunosuppressive therapy are the major factors hampering seroconversion was JDM, suggesting that a specific protocol may be required for this subgroup of patients. In spite of that, a single dose of non-adjuvanted influenza A/H1N1 2009 vaccine was generally seroprotective in this disease with no evident deleterious effect in disease itself (ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT01151644).

Glucocorticoid: Major Factor for Reduced Immunogenicity of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Vaccine in Patients with Juvenile Autoimmune Rheumatic Disease

Objective. To assess the immunogenicity and safety of non-adjuvanted influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccine in patients with juvenile autoimmune rheumatic disease (ARD) and healthy controls, because data are limited to the adult rheumatologic population. Method's. A total of 237 patients with juvenile ARD [juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE), juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM), juvenile scleroderma, and vasculitis] and 91 healthy controls were vaccinated. Serology for anti-H1N1 was performed by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Seroprotection rate, seroconversion rate, and factor-increase in geometric mean titer (GMT) were calculated. Adverse events were evaluated. Results. Age was comparable in patients and controls (14.8 +/- 3.0 vs 14.6 +/- 3.7 years, respectively; p = 0.47). Three weeks after immunization, seroprotection rate (81.4% vs 95.6%; p = 0.0007), seroconversion rate (74.3 vs 95.6%; p < 0.0001), and the factor-increase in GMT (12.9 vs 20.3; p = 0.012) were significantly lower in patients with juvenile ARD versus controls. Subgroup analysis revealed reduced seroconversion rates in JSLE (p < 0.0001), JIA (p = 0.008), JDM (p = 0.025), and vasculitis (p = 0.017). Seroprotection (p < 0.0001) and GMT (p < 0.0001) were decreased only in JSLE. Glucocorticoid use and lymphopenia were associated with lower seroconversion rates (60.4 vs 82.9%; p = 0.0001; and 55.6 vs 77.2%; p = 0.012). Multivariate logistic regression including diseases, lymphopenia, glucocorticoid, and immunosuppressants demonstrated that only glucocorticoid use (p = 0.012) remained significant. Conclusion. This is the largest study to demonstrate a reduced but adequate immune response to H1N1 vaccine in patients with juvenile ARD. It identified current glucocorticoid use as the major factor for decreased antibody production. The short-term safety results support its routine recommendation for patients with juvenile ARD. ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT01151644. (First Release Nov 15 2011; J Rheumatol 2012;39:167-73; doi:10.3899/jrheum.110721)

PReS-FINAL-2177: Safety and lack of autoantibody production following influenza H1N1 vaccination in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA)

Introduction Vaccination is an effective tool against several infectious agents including influenza. In 2010, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended influenza A H1N1/2009 immunization for high risk groups, including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients and more recently the EULAR task force reinforced the importance of vaccination in immunosuppressed pediatric rheumatologic patients. We have recently shown that Influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccination generated protective antibody production with short-term safety profile among 93 JIA patients, but the possible impact of the vaccine in autoimmune response in JIA have not been studied. Therefore, we aimed to assess the production of some autoantibodies generated following influenza H1N1 vaccination in JIA patients. Objectives To assess the autoimmune response and H1N1 serology following influenza H1N1 vaccination in patients with JIA. Methods Cepa A/California/7/2009 (NYMC X-179A) anti-H1N1 was used to vaccinate JIA patients: 1 dose of immunization was given to all participants and those <9yrs of age received a second booster 3 weeks apart. Sera were analyzed before and 3 weeks following complete vaccination. Serology against H1N1 virus was performed by hemagglutination inhibition antibody assay, rheumatoid factor (RF) by latex fixation test, antinuclear antibodies (ANA) by IIF, IgM and IgG anticardiolipin (aCL) by ELISA.Results Among 98 JIA patients that were vaccinated, 58 sera were available for this study. Mean age of 58 JIA patients was 23.9 ± 9.5 yrs, 38 were females and 20 males with mean disease duration of 14.7 ± 10.1 yrs. JIA subtypes were: 33 (57%) poliarticular, 10 (17%) oligoarticular, 6 (10%) systemic and 9 (16%) other. Sixteen patients were off drugs while 42 (72%) were under different pharmacotherapy: 32 (55%) were on 1 DMARD/IS, 10 (17%) on 2 DMARDs/IS, 19 (33%) antimalarials, 29 (50%) MTX, 8(14%) sulfasalazine, 6 (10%) anti-TNFs, 4 (7%) abatacept; no patient was using prednisone >0.5 mg/kg/d. Seroprotection rates against H1N1 influenza increased from 23 to 83% and seroconversion rates were achieved in 78% JIA. Prior to vaccination, 31(53.4%) JIA patients were ANA+, 6(10.3%) RF+, and 4 (7%) IgM + IgG aCL+. After complete H1N1 vaccination, positivity for ANA remained the same whereas 1 patient became negative for IgG aCL, and another for RF, IgM and IgG aCL. One (1.7%) patient turned low titer IgG aCL+. Conclusion Vaccination of JIA patients against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) generated successful protective antibody production without the induction of autoantibody production, except for 1 patient that became positive for low titer IgG aCL, supporting its safety.

A phase I randomized, double-blind, controlled trial of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) inactivated monovalent vaccines with different adjuvant systems

Methods We conducted a phase I, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-arm (10) parallel study involving healthy adults to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 non-adjuvanted and adjuvanted candidate vaccines. Subjects received two intramuscular injections of one of the candidate vaccines administered 21 days apart. Antibody responses were measured by means of hemagglutination-inhibition assay before and 21 days after each vaccination. The three co-primary immunogenicity end points were the proportion of seroprotection >70%, seroconversion >40%, and the factor increase in the geometric mean titer >2.5. Results A total of 266 participants were enrolled into the study. No deaths or serious adverse events were reported. The most commonly solicited local and systemic adverse events were injection-site pain and headache, respectively. Only three subjects (1.1%) reported severe injection-site pain. Four 2009 influenza A (H1N1) inactivated monovalent candidate vaccines that met the three requirements to evaluate influenza protection, after a single dose, were identified: 15 μg of hemagglutinin antigen without adjuvant; 7.5 μg of hemagglutinin antigen with aluminum hydroxide, MPL and squalene; 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin antigen with aluminum hydroxide and MPL; and 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin antigen with aluminum hydroxide and squalene. Conclusions Adjuvant systems can be safely used in influenza vaccines, including the adjuvant monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL) derived from Bordetella pertussis with squalene and aluminum hydroxide, MPL with aluminum hydroxide, and squalene and aluminum hydroxide.

Immunogenicity and Reactogenicity of 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Inactivated Monovalent Non-Adjuvanted Vaccine in Elderly and Immunocompromised Patients

Background Immunosuppressed individuals present serious morbidity and mortality from influenza, therefore it is important to understand the safety and immunogenicity of influenza vaccination among them. Methods This multicenter cohort study evaluated the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of an inactivated, monovalent, non-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine among the elderly, HIV-infected, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), cancer, kidney transplant, and juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients. Participants were included during routine clinical visits, and vaccinated according to conventional influenza vaccination schedules. Antibody response was measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition assay, before and 21 days after vaccination. Results 319 patients with cancer, 260 with RA, 256 HIV-infected, 149 elderly individuals, 85 kidney transplant recipients, and 83 with JIA were included. The proportions of seroprotection, seroconversion, and the geometric mean titer ratios postvaccination were, respectively: 37.6%, 31.8%, and 3.2 among kidney transplant recipients, 61.5%, 53.1%, and 7.5 among RA patients, 63.1%, 55.7%, and 5.7 among the elderly, 59.0%, 54.7%, and 5.9 among HIV-infected patients, 52.4%, 49.2%, and 5.3 among cancer patients, 85.5%, 78.3%, and 16.5 among JIA patients. The vaccine was well tolerated, with no reported severe adverse events. Conclusions The vaccine was safe among all groups, with an acceptable immunogenicity among the elderly and JIA patients, however new vaccination strategies should be explored to improve the immune response of immunocompromised adult patients. (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01218685)

Prevalence of influenza and adherence to the anti-flu vaccination among elderly

Introduction: The flu, a condition that can affect the elderly by increasing the risk of serious complications can be prevented through vaccination. Estimate the prevalence of signs and symptoms suggestive of influenza in a group of elderly either vaccinated or unvaccinated against influenza was the objective this study. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study performed in a Brazilian City. A structured questionnaire was employed to identify the presence of signs and symptoms of influenza in individuals aged 60 years or over. For analysis of associations between variables the prevalence ratio (PR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used. Results: One hundred ninety-six participants were interviewed, of whom 57.7% were female. The average age was 69.7 years. About 25% of the vaccinated and 20% of the unvaccinated in 2009, and 25% of the vaccinated and 22.5% of the unvaccinated in 2010 reported having the flu. Among the vaccinated and unvaccinated in 2009 and 2010, there was no verified association between vaccination and influenza (PR=1.24; [95% CI: 0.63-2.43] and PR=1.11; [95% CI: 0.59-2.09], respectively). Conclusions: This study suggests that, among the elderly selected, the vaccination coverage for influenza is below the ideal, even with projection of the best indices for 2011 ((similar to)84%). The data on vaccination and disease protection needs further research; however, the results point to the need for measures to better clarify to this population about the disease, its complications and the benefits of vaccination, in addition to combatting the stigma related to low adherence.

INFLUENZA VIRUSES IN ADULT DOGS RAISED IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS IN THE STATE OF SAO PAULO, BRAZIL

In 1970, searching for the interspecies transmission of influenza viruses led to the first study on influenza viruses in domestic animals. Birds and mammals, including human beings, are their natural hosts; however, other animals may also play a role in the virus epidemiology. The objective was to investigate the incidence of influenza viruses in adult dogs raised in rural (9, 19.56%) and urban (37, 80.43%) areas in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Dog serum samples were examined for antibodies to influenza viruses by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test using the corresponding antigens from the circulating viruses in Brazil. Dogs from rural areas presented antibodies to influenza A H3N2, and influenza A H7N7 and H3N8. In rural areas, dog sera displayed mean titers as 94.37, 227.88, 168.14, 189.62 HIU/25 mu L for subtypes H1N1, H3N2, H7N7, H3N8, respectively. About 84% and 92% of dogs from urban areas exhibited antibodies to human influenza A H1N1 and H3N2, respectively, with statistical difference at p < 0.05 between the mean titers of antibodies to H1N1 and H3N2. About 92% and 100% were positive for H7N7 and H3N8, respectively. In dogs from urban areas, the mean titers of antibodies against influenza A H1N1, H3N2, H7N7 and H3N8, were 213.96, 179.42, 231.76, 231.35 HIU/25 mu L respectively. The difference among them was not statistically significant at p > 0.05. In conclusion, these dogs were positive for both human and equine influenza viruses. The present study suggests the first evidence that influenza viruses circulate among dogs in Brazil.

Prospective surveillance study of acute respiratory infections, influenza-like illness and seasonal influenza vaccine in a cohort of juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients

Background Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are frequent in children and complications can occur in patients with chronic diseases. We evaluated the frequency and impact of ARI and influenza-like illness (ILI) episodes on disease activity, and the immunogenicity and safety of influenza vaccine in a cohort of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients. Methods Surveillance of respiratory viruses was conducted in JIA patients during ARI season (March to August) in two consecutive years: 2007 (61 patients) and 2008 (63 patients). Patients with ARI or ILI had respiratory samples collected for virus detection by real time PCR. In 2008, 44 patients were immunized with influenza vaccine. JIA activity index (ACRPed30) was assessed during both surveillance periods. Influenza hemagglutination inhibition antibody titers were measured before and 30-40 days after vaccination. Results During the study period 105 ARI episodes were reported and 26.6% of them were ILI. Of 33 samples collected, 60% were positive for at least one virus. Influenza and rhinovirus were the most frequently detected, in 30% of the samples. Of the 50 JIA flares observed, 20% were temporally associated to ARI. Influenza seroprotection rates were higher than 70% (91-100%) for all strains, and seroconversion rates exceeded 40% (74-93%). In general, response to influenza vaccine was not influenced by therapy or disease activity, but patients using anti-TNF alpha drugs presented lower seroconversion to H1N1 strain. No significant differences were found in ACRPed30 after vaccination and no patient reported ILI for 6 months after vaccination. Conclusion ARI episodes are relatively frequent in JIA patients and may have a role triggering JIA flares. Trivalent split influenza vaccine seems to be immunogenic and safe in JIA patients.

Importância dos vírus respiratórios na febre sem sinais localizatórios em crianças menores de 36 meses

INTRODUÇÃO Cerca de 20% das crianças menores de 36 meses trazidas ao setor de emergência por febre apresentam febre sem sinais localizatórios (FSSL). Nos últimos anos, vários estudos estabeleceram critérios para a identificação dos pacientes com risco de infecção bacteriana grave (IBG), além de demonstrarem a aplicabilidade da pesquisa de vírus respiratórios (PVR) na avaliação destes pacientes. Entretanto, não existem estudos abordando a identificação de vírus respiratórios em crianças menores de 36 meses com FSSL no nosso meio. OBJETIVOS Descrever a frequência dos vírus respiratórios na febre sem sinais localizatórios (FSSL) em crianças menores de 36 meses de idade CASUÍSTICA E MÉTODOS Estudo prospectivo e observacional de crianças menores de 36 meses no setor de emergência pediátrico, durante o período de abril de 2011 a abril de 2013, com diagnóstico de FSSL. Foram excluídas crianças portadoras de doenças de base que implicavam em alteração da imunidade e uso de antibiótico até 14 dias antes da consulta. Os pacientes foram avaliados laboratorialmente de acordo com o protocolo institucional para avaliação de FSSL. Além de hemograma completo, análise do sedimento urinário e culturas de sangue e urina, foi coletada amostra de secreção de nasofaringe para pesquisa de vírus respiratórios por imunoflourescência indireta. Resultados Foram estudados 232 crianças menores de 36 meses com diagnóstico de FSSL, sendo 53% do sexo masculino, com idade mediana de 10,7 meses (5,4 - 16,1). Em 57 (24,6%) destes pacientes, foi identificado vírus respiratórios, sendo o adenovírus (33 casos - 57,9%) o agente mais identificado, seguido do parainfluenza 3 (17,5%) e do influenza A (12,3%). CONCLUSÃO Em torno de 25% dos casos de FSSL do nosso meio foram identificados vírus respiratórios, mostrando que a PVR é uma ferramenta útil na avaliação do paciente com FSSL, possibilitando a redução do número de retornos hospitalares e uso de antibioticoterapia empírica.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.