Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Linear parameter varying control design for rotating systems supported by journal bearings

Linear parameter varying (LPV) control is a model-based control technique that takes into account time-varying parameters of the plant. In the case of rotating systems supported by lubricated bearings, the dynamic characteristics of the bearings change in time as a function of the rotating speed. Hence, LPV control can tackle the problem of run-up and run-down operational conditions when dynamic characteristics of the rotating system change significantly in time due to the bearings and high vibration levels occur. In this work, the LPV control design for a flexible shaft supported by plain journal bearings is presented. The model used in the LPV control design is updated from unbalance response experimental results and dynamic coefficients for the entire range of rotating speeds are obtained by numerical optimization. Experimental implementation of the designed LPV control resulted in strong reduction of vibration amplitudes when crossing the critical speed, without affecting system behavior in sub- or supercritical speeds. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Closed-loop stable model predictive control of integrating systems with dead time

Model predictive control (MPC) applications in the process industry usually deal with process systems that show time delays (dead times) between the system inputs and outputs. Also, in many industrial applications of MPC, integrating outputs resulting from liquid level control or recycle streams need to be considered as controlled outputs. Conventional MPC packages can be applied to time-delay systems but stability of the closed loop system will depend on the tuning parameters of the controller and cannot be guaranteed even in the nominal case. In this work, a state space model based on the analytical step response model is extended to the case of integrating time systems with time delays. This model is applied to the development of two versions of a nominally stable MPC, which is designed to the practical scenario in which one has targets for some of the inputs and/or outputs that may be unreachable and zone control (or interval tracking) for the remaining outputs. The controller is tested through simulation of a multivariable industrial reactor system. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of magnetically induced hyperthermia in the model protozoan Crithidia fasciculata as a potential therapy against parasitic infections

Background: Magnetic hyperthermia is currently a clinical therapy approved in the European Union for treatment of tumor cells, and uses magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) under time-varying magnetic fields (TVMFs). The same basic principle seems promising against trypanosomatids causing Chagas disease and sleeping sickness, given that the therapeutic drugs available have severe side effects and that there are drug-resistant strains. However, no applications of this strategy against protozoan-induced diseases have been reported so far. In the present study, Crithidia fasciculata, a widely used model for therapeutic strategies against pathogenic trypanosomatids, was targeted with Fe3O4 MNPs in order to provoke cell death remotely using TVMFs. Methods: Iron oxide MNPs with average diameters of approximately 30 nm were synthesized by precipitation of FeSO4 in basic medium. The MNPs were added to C. fasciculata choanomastigotes in the exponential phase and incubated overnight, removing excess MNPs using a DEAE-cellulose resin column. The amount of MNPs uploaded per cell was determined by magnetic measurement. The cells bearing MNPs were submitted to TVMFs using a homemade AC field applicator (f = 249 kHz, H = 13 kA/m), and the temperature variation during the experiments was measured. Scanning electron microscopy was used to assess morphological changes after the TVMF experiments. Cell viability was analyzed using an MTT colorimetric assay and flow cytometry. Results: MNPs were incorporated into the cells, with no noticeable cytotoxicity. When a TVMF was applied to cells bearing MNPs, massive cell death was induced via a nonapoptotic mechanism. No effects were observed by applying TVMF to control cells not loaded with MNPs. No macroscopic rise in temperature was observed in the extracellular medium during the experiments. Conclusion: As a proof of principle, these data indicate that intracellular hyperthermia is a suitable technology to induce death of protozoan parasites bearing MNPs. These findings expand the possibilities for new therapeutic strategies combating parasitic infection.

Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion

We propose a stage-structured integrodifference model for blowflies' growth and dispersion taking into account the density dependence of fertility and survival rates and the non-overlap of generations. We assume a discrete-time, stage-structured, model. The spatial dynamics is introduced by means of a redistribution kernel. We treat one and two dimensional cases, the latter on the semi-plane, with a reflexive boundary. We analytically show that the upper bound for the invasion front speed is the same as in the one-dimensional case. Using laboratory data for fertility and survival parameters and dispersal data of a single generation from a capture-recapture experiment in South Africa, we obtain an estimate for the velocity of invasion of blowflies of the species Chrysomya albiceps. This model predicts a speed of invasion which was compared to actual observational data for the invasion of the focal species in the Neotropics. Good agreement was found between model and observations.

Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

Scaling invariance for the escape of particles from a periodically corrugated waveguide

The escape dynamics of a classical light ray inside a corrugated waveguide is characterised by the use of scaling arguments. The model is described via a two-dimensional nonlinear and area preserving mapping. The phase space of the mapping contains a set of periodic islands surrounded by a large chaotic sea that is confined by a set of invariant tori. When a hole is introduced in the chaotic sea, letting the ray escape, the histogram of frequency of the number of escaping particles exhibits rapid growth, reaching a maximum value at n(p) and later decaying asymptotically to zero. The behaviour of the histogram of escape frequency is characterised using scaling arguments. The scaling formalism is widely applicable to critical phenomena and useful in characterisation of phase transitions, including transitions from limited to unlimited energy growth in two-dimensional time varying billiard problems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Divertor map with freedom of geometry and safety factor profile

An explicit, area-preserving and integrable magnetic field line map for a single-null divertor tokamak is obtained using a trajectory integration method to represent equilibrium magnetic surfaces. The magnetic surfaces obtained from the map are capable of fitting different geometries with freely specified position of the X-point, by varying free model parameters. The safety factor profile of the map is independent of the geometric parameters and can also be chosen arbitrarily. The divertor integrable map is composed of a nonintegrable map that simulates the effect of external symmetry-breaking resonances, so as to generate a chaotic region near the separatrix passing through the X-point. The composed field line map is used to analyze escape patterns (the connection length distribution and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate) for two equilibrium configurations with different magnetic shear profiles at the plasma edge.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination in Brazil: Regional analyses according to the endemic context

Objective: To To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination program in Brazil. Methods: An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of hepatitis A for 24 years. The analysis was run separately according to the pattern of regional endemicity, one for South + Southeast (low endemicity) and one for the North + Northeast + Midwest (intermediate endemicity). The decision analysis model compared universal childhood vaccination with current program of vaccinating high risk individuals. Epidemiologic and cost estimates were based on data from a nationwide seroprevalence survey of viral hepatitis, primary data collection, National Health Information Systems and literature. The analysis was conducted from both the health system and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in 2008 Brazilian currency (Real). Results: A universal immunization program would have a significant impact on disease epidemiology in all regions, resulting in 64% reduction in the number of cases of icteric hepatitis, 59% reduction in deaths for the disease and a 62% decrease of life years lost, in a national perspective. With a vaccine price of R$16.89 (US$7.23) per dose, vaccination against hepatitis A was a cost-saving strategy in the low and intermediate endemicity regions and in Brazil as a whole from both health system and society perspective. Results were most sensitive to the frequency of icteric hepatitis, ambulatory care and vaccine costs. Conclusions: Universal childhood vaccination program against hepatitis A could be a cost-saving strategy in all regions of Brazil. These results are useful for the Brazilian government for vaccine related decisions and for monitoring population impact if the vaccine is included in the National Immunization Program. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematics of the Oswaldoi Complex (Anopheles, Nyssorhynchus) in South America

Abstract Background Effective malaria control relies on accurate identification of those Anopheles mosquitoes responsible for the transmission of Plasmodium parasites. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. has been incriminated as a malaria vector in Colombia and some localities in Brazil, but not ubiquitously throughout its Neotropical range. This evidence together with variable morphological characters and genetic differences supports that An. oswaldoi s.l. compromises a species complex. The recent fully integrated redescription of An. oswaldoi s.s. provides a solid taxonomic foundation from which to molecularly determine other members of the complex. Methods DNA sequences of the Second Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS2 - rDNA) (n = 192) and the barcoding region of the Cytochrome Oxidase I gene (COI - mtDNA) (n = 110) were generated from 255 specimens of An. oswaldoi s.l. from 33 localities: Brazil (8 localities, including the lectotype series of An. oswaldoi), Ecuador (4), Colombia (17), Trinidad and Tobago (1), and Peru (3). COI sequences were analyzed employing the Kimura-two-parameter model (K2P), Bayesian analysis (MrBayes), Mixed Yule-Coalescent model (MYC, for delimitation of clusters) and TCS genealogies. Results Separate and combined analysis of the COI and ITS2 data sets unequivocally supported four separate species: two previously determined (An. oswaldoi s.s. and An. oswaldoi B) and two newly designated species in the Oswaldoi Complex (An. oswaldoi A and An. sp. nr. konderi). The COI intra- and inter-specific genetic distances for the four taxa were non-overlapping, averaging 0.012 (0.007 to 0.020) and 0.052 (0.038 to 0.064), respectively. The concurring four clusters delineated by MrBayes and MYC, and four independent TCS networks, strongly confirmed their separate species status. In addition, An. konderi of Sallum should be regarded as unique with respect to the above. Despite initially being included as an outgroup taxon, this species falls well within the examined taxa, suggesting a combined analysis of these taxa would be most appropriate. Conclusions: Through novel data and retrospective comparison of available COI and ITS2 DNA sequences, evidence is shown to support the separate species status of An. oswaldoi s.s., An. oswaldoi A and An. oswaldoi B, and at least two species in the closely related An. konderi complex (An. sp. nr. konderi, An. konderi of Sallum). Although An. oswaldoi s.s. has never been implicated in malaria transmission, An. oswaldoi B is a confirmed vector and the new species An. oswaldoi A and An. sp. nr. konderi are circumstantially implicated, most likely acting as secondary vectors.