Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

A Review of the Brazilian NBR 15575 Standard: Applying the Simulation and Simplified Methods for Evaluating a Social House Thermal Performance

The new Brazilian ABNT NBR 15575 Standard (the ―Standard‖) recommends two methods for analyzing housing thermal performance: a simplified and a computational simulation method. The aim of this paper is to evaluate both methods and the coherence between each. For this, the thermal performance of a low-cost single-family house was evaluated through the application of the procedures prescribed by the Standard. To accomplish this study, the EnergyPlus software was selected. Comparative analyses of the house with varying envelope U-values and solar absorptance of external walls were performed in order to evaluate the influence of these parameters on the results. The results have shown limitations in the current Standard computational simulation method, due to different aspects: weather files, lack of consideration of passive strategies, and inconsistency with the simplified method. Therefore, this research indicates that there are some aspects to be improved in this Standard, so it could better represent the real thermal performance of social housing in Brazil.

Pair approximation for a model of vertical and horizontal transmission of parasites.

We apply Stochastic Dynamics method for a differential equations model, proposed by Marc Lipsitch and collaborators (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 260, 321, 1995), for which the transmission dynamics of parasites occurs from a parent to its offspring (vertical transmission), and by contact with infected host (horizontal transmission). Herpes, Hepatitis and AIDS are examples of diseases for which both horizontal and vertical transmission occur simultaneously during the virus spreading. Understanding the role of each type of transmission in the infection prevalence on a susceptible host population may provide some information about the factors that contribute for the eradication and/or control of those diseases. We present a pair mean-field approximation obtained from the master equation of the model. The pair approximation is formed by the differential equations of the susceptible and infected population densities and the differential equations of pairs that contribute to the former ones. In terms of the model parameters, we obtain the conditions that lead to the disease eradication, and set up the phase diagram based on the local stability analysis of fixed points. We also perform Monte Carlo simulations of the model on complete graphs and Erdös-Rényi graphs in order to investigate the influence of population size and neighborhood on the previous mean-field results; by this way, we also expect to evaluate the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission on the elimination of parasite. Pair Approximation for a Model of Vertical and Horizontal Transmission of Parasites.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

This work presents numerical simulations of two fluid flow problems involving moving free surfaces: the impacting drop and fluid jet buckling. The viscoelastic model used in these simulations is the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. To validate the code, numerical predictions of the drop impact problem for Newtonian and Oldroyd-B fluids are presented and compared with other methods. In particular, a benchmark on numerical simulations for a XPP drop impacting on a rigid plate is performed for a wide range of the relevant parameters. Finally, to provide an additional application of free surface flows of XPP fluids, the viscous jet buckling problem is simulated and discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analytic method to compute the stress dependence on the dimensions and its influence in the characteristics of triple gate devices

Triple-gate devices are considered a promising solution for sub-20 nm era. Strain engineering has also been recognized as an alternative due to the increase in the carriers mobility it propitiates. The simulation of strained devices has the major drawback of the stress non-uniformity, which cannot be easily considered in a device TCAD simulation without the coupled process simulation that is time consuming and cumbersome task. However, it is mandatory to have accurate device simulation, with good correlation with experimental results of strained devices, allowing for in-depth physical insight as well as prediction on the stress impact on the device electrical characteristics. This work proposes the use of an analytic function, based on the literature, to describe accurately the strain dependence on both channel length and fin width in order to simulate adequately strained triple-gate devices. The maximum transconductance and the threshold voltage are used as the key parameters to compare simulated and experimental data. The results show the agreement of the proposed analytic function with the experimental results. Also, an analysis on the threshold voltage variation is carried out, showing that the stress affects the dependence of the threshold voltage on the temperature. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electronic Properties of Water in Liquid Environment. A Sequential QM/MM Study Using the Free Energy Gradient Method

There is a continuous search for theoretical methods that are able to describe the effects of the liquid environment on molecular systems. Different methods emphasize different aspects, and the treatment of both the local and bulk properties is still a great challenge. In this work, the electronic properties of a water molecule in liquid environment is studied by performing a relaxation of the geometry and electronic distribution using the free energy gradient method. This is made using a series of steps in each of which we run a purely molecular mechanical (MM) Monte Carlo Metropolis simulation of liquid water and subsequently perform a quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) calculation of the ensemble averages of the charge distribution, atomic forces, and second derivatives. The MP2/aug-cc-pV5Z level is used to describe the electronic properties of the QM water. B3LYP with specially designed basis functions are used for the magnetic properties. Very good agreement is found for the local properties of water, such as geometry, vibrational frequencies, dipole moment, dipole polarizability, chemical shift, and spin-spin coupling constants. The very good performance of the free energy method combined with a QM/MM approach along with the possible limitations are briefly discussed.

Stochastic competitive learning in complex networks

Competitive learning is an important machine learning approach which is widely employed in artificial neural networks. In this paper, we present a rigorous definition of a new type of competitive learning scheme realized on large-scale networks. The model consists of several particles walking within the network and competing with each other to occupy as many nodes as possible, while attempting to reject intruder particles. The particle's walking rule is composed of a stochastic combination of random and preferential movements. The model has been applied to solve community detection and data clustering problems. Computer simulations reveal that the proposed technique presents high precision of community and cluster detections, as well as low computational complexity. Moreover, we have developed an efficient method for estimating the most likely number of clusters by using an evaluator index that monitors the information generated by the competition process itself. We hope this paper will provide an alternative way to the study of competitive learning.

Modeling and simulation of severe slugging with mass transfer effects

A mathematical model and numerical simulations are presented to investigate the dynamics of gas, oil and water flow in a pipeline-riser system. The pipeline is modeled as a lumped parameter system and considers two switchable states: one in which the gas is able to penetrate into the riser and another in which there is a liquid accumulation front, preventing the gas from penetrating the riser. The riser model considers a distributed parameter system, in which movable nodes are used to evaluate local conditions along the subsystem. Mass transfer effects are modeled by using a black oil approximation. The model predicts the liquid penetration length in the pipeline and the liquid level in the riser, so it is possible to determine which type of severe slugging occurs in the system. The method of characteristics is used to simplify the differentiation of the resulting hyperbolic system of equations. The equations are discretized and integrated using an implicit method with a predictor-corrector scheme for the treatment of the nonlinearities. Simulations corresponding to severe slugging conditions are presented and compared to results obtained with OLGA computer code, showing a very good agreement. A description of the types of severe slugging for the three-phase flow of gas, oil and water in a pipeline-riser system with mass transfer effects are presented, as well as a stability map. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic gravito-inertial modes discovered by CoRoT in the hot Be star HD51452

Context. Be stars are rapidly rotating stars with a circumstellar decretion disk. They usually undergo pressure and/or gravity pulsation modes excited by the kappa-mechanism, i.e. an effect of the opacity of iron-peak elements in the envelope of the star. In the Milky Way, p-modes are observed in stars that are hotter than or equal to the B3 spectral type, while g-modes are observed at the B2 spectral type and cooler. Aims. We observed a B0IVe star, HD51452, with the high-precision, high-cadence photometric CoRoT satellite and high-resolution, ground-based HARPS and SOPHIE spectrographs to study its pulsations in great detail. We also used the lower resolution spectra available in the BeSS database. Methods. We analyzed the CoRoT and spectroscopic data with several methods: CLEAN-NG, FREQFIND, and a sliding window method. We also analyzed spectral quantities, such as the violet over red (V/R) emission variations, to obtain information about the variation in the circumstellar environment. We calculated a stellar structure model with the ESTER code to test the various interpretation of the results. Results. We detect 189 frequencies of variations in the CoRoT light curve in the range between 0 and 4.5 c d(-1). The main frequencies are also recovered in the spectroscopic data. In particular we find that HD51452 undergoes gravito-inertial modes that are not in the domain of those excited by the kappa-mechanism. We propose that these are stochastic modes excited in the convective zones and that at least some of them are a multiplet of r-modes (i.e. subinertial modes mainly driven by the Coriolis acceleration). Stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes had never been observed in any star, and theory predicted that their very low amplitudes would be undetectable even with CoRoT. We suggest that the amplitudes are enhanced in HD51452 because of the very rapid stellar rotation. In addition, we find that the amplitude variations of these modes are related to the occurrence of minor outbursts. Conclusions. Thanks to CoRoT data, we have detected a new kind of pulsations in HD51452, which are stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes, probably due to its very rapid rotation. These modes are probably also present in other rapidly rotating hot Be stars.

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RESOURCE-AWARE BUSINESS PROCESSES USING STOCHASTIC AUTOMATA NETWORKS

In this work, we study the performance evaluation of resource-aware business process models. We define a new framework that allows the generation of analytical models for performance evaluation from business process models annotated with resource management information. This framework is composed of a new notation that allows the specification of resource management constraints and a method to convert a business process specification and its resource constraints into Stochastic Automata Networks (SANs). We show that the analysis of the generated SAN model provides several performance indices, such as average throughput of the system, average waiting time, average queues size, and utilization rate of resources. Using the BP2SAN tool - our implementation of the proposed framework - and a SAN solver (such as the PEPS tool) we show through a simple use-case how a business specialist with no skills in stochastic modeling can easily obtain performance indices that, in turn, can help to identify bottlenecks on the model, to perform workload characterization, to define the provisioning of resources, and to study other performance related aspects of the business process.

Stochastic quantization of the spherical model and supersymmetry.

In this work, we reported some results about the stochastic quantization of the spherical model. We started by reviewing some basic aspects of this method with emphasis in the connection between the Langevin equation and the supersymmetric quantum mechanics, aiming at the application of the corresponding connection to the spherical model. An intuitive idea is that when applied to the spherical model this gives rise to a supersymmetric version that is identified with one studied in Phys. Rev. E 85, 061109, (2012). Before investigating in detail this aspect, we studied the stochastic quantization of the mean spherical model that is simpler to implement than the one with the strict constraint. We also highlight some points concerning more traditional methods discussed in the literature like canonical and path integral quantization. To produce a supersymmetric version, grounded in the Nicolai map, we investigated the stochastic quantization of the strict spherical model. We showed in fact that the result of this process is an off-shell supersymmetric extension of the quantum spherical model (with the precise supersymmetric constraint structure). That analysis establishes a connection between the classical model and its supersymmetric quantum counterpart. The supersymmetric version in this way constructed is a more natural one and gives further support and motivations to investigate similar connections in other models of the literature.

Computational simulation of the flow-induced vibration of a circular cylinder subjected to wake interference

In this work, we considered the flow around two circular cylinders of equal diameter placed in tandem with respect to the incident uniform flow. The upstream cylinder was fixed and the downstream cylinder was completely free to move in the cross-stream direction, with no spring or damper attached to it. The centre-to-centre distance between the cylinders was four diameters, and the Reynolds number was varied from 100 to 645. We performed two- and three-dimensional simulations of this flow using a Spectral/hp element method to discretise the flow equations, coupled to a simple Newmark integration routine that solves the equation of the dynamics of the cylinder. The differences of the behaviours observed in the two- and three-dimensional simulations are highlighted and the data is analysed under the light of previously published experimental results obtained for higher Reynolds numbers.

Stochastic gravito-inertial modes discovered by CoRoT in the hot Be star HD51452

Context. Be stars are rapidly rotating stars with a circumstellar decretion disk. They usually undergo pressure and/or gravity pulsation modes excited by the κ-mechanism, i.e. an effect of the opacity of iron-peak elements in the envelope of the star. In the Milky Way, p-modes are observed in stars that are hotter than or equal to the B3 spectral type, while g-modes are observed at the B2 spectral type and cooler. Aims. We observed a B0IVe star, HD51452, with the high-precision, high-cadence photometric CoRoT satellite and high-resolution, ground-based HARPS and SOPHIE spectrographs to study its pulsations in great detail. We also used the lower resolution spectra available in the BeSS database. Methods. We analyzed the CoRoT and spectroscopic data with several methods: Clean-NG, FreqFind, and a sliding window method. We also analyzed spectral quantities, such as the violet over red (V/R) emission variations, to obtain information about the variation in the circumstellar environment. We calculated a stellar structure model with the ESTER code to test the various interpretation of the results. Results. We detect 189 frequencies of variations in the CoRoT light curve in the range between 0 and 4.5 c d−1. The main frequencies are also recovered in the spectroscopic data. In particular we find that HD51452 undergoes gravito-inertial modes that are not in the domain of those excited by the κ-mechanism. We propose that these are stochastic modes excited in the convective zones and that at least some of them are a multiplet of r-modes (i.e. subinertial modes mainly driven by the Coriolis acceleration). Stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes had never been observed in any star, and theory predicted that their very low amplitudes would be undetectable even with CoRoT. We suggest that the amplitudes are enhanced in HD51452 because of the very rapid stellar rotation. In addition, we find that the amplitude variations of these modes are related to the occurrence of minor outbursts. Conclusions. Thanks to CoRoT data, we have detected a new kind of pulsations in HD51452, which are stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes, probably due to its very rapid rotation. These modes are probably also present in other rapidly rotating hot Be stars.