Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

TRANSVERSAL DISTRIBUTION COMPARISON OF SOLID FERTILIZERS APPLIED OVER ANNUAL CROPS

Centrifugal spreaders dominate the application of solid materials in agriculture offering expressive operational field capacity and extended range of applied rates. Field tests for characterization of theirperformance are conducted without any physical obstacles (such as the presence of plants) during the parabolic trajectory of the falling particles of fertilizer to the soil. The purpose of this study was to comparatively evaluate the transverse distribution of solid fertilizers applied on cropped corn, soybeans and cotton. Evaluations of the spreaders were designed according to ASAE S341.3/99 Standard. Tests consisted in aligning side by side collectors in-between the cropped rows and weighting the material deposited. The results showed that transverse distribution of solid fertilizers applied over the cotton and corn crops is affected by the crop height, interfering directly on the effective width of the spreader application, which was not observedin the soybean crop, once the fertilizer application is done when the crop was still below the collector's height. The results suggest that evaluation of effective width of the spreaders application need to be done under real crop environment.

A spatial stochastic model for rumor transmission

We consider an interacting particle system representing the spread of a rumor by agents on the d-dimensional integer lattice. Each agent may be in any of the three states belonging to the set {0,1,2}. Here 0 stands for ignorants, 1 for spreaders and 2 for stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its (nearest) ignorant neighbors at rate lambda. At rate alpha a spreader becomes a stifler due to the action of other (nearest neighbor) spreaders. Finally, spreaders and stiflers forget the rumor at rate one. We study sufficient conditions under which the rumor either becomes extinct or survives with positive probability.