Computational tools for comparing asymmetric GARCH models via Bayes factors

In this paper we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in order to estimate and compare GARCH models from a Bayesian perspective. We allow for possibly heavy tailed and asymmetric distributions in the error term. We use a general method proposed in the literature to introduce skewness into a continuous unimodal and symmetric distribution. For each model we compute an approximation to the marginal likelihood, based on the MCMC output. From these approximations we compute Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities. (C) 2012 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing allele homogeneity: the problem of nested hypotheses

Background: The evaluation of associations between genotypes and diseases in a case-control framework plays an important role in genetic epidemiology. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the homogeneity of both genotypic and allelic frequencies. The traditional test that is used to check allelic homogeneity is known to be valid only under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, a property that may not hold in practice. Results: We first describe the flaws of the traditional (chi-squared) tests for both allelic and genotypic homogeneity. Besides the known problem of the allelic procedure, we show that whenever these tests are used, an incoherence may arise: sometimes the genotypic homogeneity hypothesis is not rejected, but the allelic hypothesis is. As we argue, this is logically impossible. Some methods that were recently proposed implicitly rely on the idea that this does not happen. In an attempt to correct this incoherence, we describe an alternative frequentist approach that is appropriate even when Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium does not hold. It is then shown that the problem remains and is intrinsic of frequentist procedures. Finally, we introduce the Full Bayesian Significance Test to test both hypotheses and prove that the incoherence cannot happen with these new tests. To illustrate this, all five tests are applied to real and simulated datasets. Using the celebrated power analysis, we show that the Bayesian method is comparable to the frequentist one and has the advantage of being coherent. Conclusions: Contrary to more traditional approaches, the Full Bayesian Significance Test for association studies provides a simple, coherent and powerful tool for detecting associations.

Biogeographic and diversification patterns of Neotropical Troidini butterflies (Papilionidae) support a museum model of diversity dynamics for Amazonia

Background: The temporal and geographical diversification of Neotropical insects remains poorly understood because of the complex changes in geological and climatic conditions that occurred during the Cenozoic. To better understand extant patterns in Neotropical biodiversity, we investigated the evolutionary history of three Neotropical swallowtail Troidini genera (Papilionidae). First, DNA-based species delimitation analyses were conducted to assess species boundaries within Neotropical Troidini using an enlarged fragment of the standard barcode gene. Molecularly delineated species were then used to infer a time-calibrated species-level phylogeny based on a three-gene dataset and Bayesian dating analyses. The corresponding chronogram was used to explore their temporal and geographical diversification through distinct likelihood-based methods. Results: The phylogeny for Neotropical Troidini was well resolved and strongly supported. Molecular dating and biogeographic analyses indicate that the extant lineages of Neotropical Troidini have a late Eocene (33-42 Ma) origin in North America. Two independent lineages (Battus and Euryades + Parides) reached South America via the GAARlandia temporary connection, and later became extinct in North America. They only began substantive diversification during the early Miocene in Amazonia. Macroevolutionary analysis supports the "museum model" of diversification, rather than Pleistocene refugia, as the best explanation for the diversification of these lineages. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that: (i) current Neotropical biodiversity may have originated ex situ; (ii) the GAARlandia bridge was important in facilitating invasions of South America; (iii) colonization of Amazonia initiated the crown diversification of these swallowtails; and (iv) Amazonia is not only a species-rich region but also acted as a sanctuary for the dynamics of this diversity. In particular, Amazonia probably allowed the persistence of old lineages and contributed to the steady accumulation of diversity over time with constant net diversification rates, a result that contrasts with previous studies on other South American butterflies.

Prognostic factors for survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases: experience of a single brazilian cancer center

CONTEXT: Liver metastases are a common event in the clinical outcome of patients with colorectal cancer and account for 2/3 of deaths from this disease. There is considerable controversy among the data in the literature regarding the results of surgical treatment and prognostic factors of survival, and no analysis have been done in a large cohort of patients in Brazil. OBJECTIVES: To characterize the results of surgical treatment of patients with colorectal liver metastases, and to establish prognostic factors of survival in a Brazilian population. METHOD: This was a retrospective study of patients undergoing liver resection for colorectal metastases in a tertiary cancer hospital from 1998 to 2009. We analyzed epidemiologic variables and the clinical characteristics of primary tumors, metastatic disease and its treatment, surgical procedures and follow-up, and survival results. Survival analyzes were done by the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was applied to determine the influence of variables on overall and disease-free survival. All variables associated with survival with P<0.20 in univariate analysis, were included in multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: During the period analyzed, 209 procedures were performed on 170 patients. Postope-rative mortality in 90 days was 2.9% and 5-year overall survival was 64.9%. Its independent prognostic factors were the presence of extrahepatic disease at diagnosis of liver metastases, bilateral nodules and the occurrence of major complications after liver surgery. The estimated 5-year disease-free survival was 39.1% and its prognostic factors included R1 resection, extrahepatic disease, bilateral nodules, lymph node involvement in the primary tumor and primary tumors located in the rectum. CONCLUSION: Liver resection for colorectal metastases is safe and effective and the analysis of prognostic factors of survival in a large cohort of Brazilian patients showed similar results to those pointed in international series. The occurrence of major postoperative complications appears to be able to compromise overall survival and further investigation in needed in this topic.

A palaeobiologist's guide to 'virtual' micro-CT preparation

This paper provides a brief but comprehensive guide to creating, preparing and dissecting a 'virtual' fossil, using a worked example to demonstrate some standard data processing techniques. Computed tomography (CT) is a 3D imaging modality for producing 'virtual' models of an object on a computer. In the last decade, CT technology has greatly improved, allowing bigger and denser objects to be scanned increasingly rapidly. The technique has now reached a stage where systems can facilitate large-scale, non-destructive comparative studies of extinct fossils and their living relatives. Consequently the main limiting factor in CT-based analyses is no longer scanning, but the hurdles of data processing (see disclaimer). The latter comprises the techniques required to convert a 3D CT volume (stack of digital slices) into a virtual image of the fossil that can be prepared (separated) from the matrix and 'dissected' into its anatomical parts. This technique can be applied to specimens or part of specimens embedded in the rock matrix that until now have been otherwise impossible to visualise. This paper presents a suggested workflow explaining the steps required, using as example a fossil tooth of Sphenacanthus hybodoides (Egerton), a shark from the Late Carboniferous of England. The original NHMUK copyrighted CT slice stack can be downloaded for practice of the described techniques, which include segmentation, rendering, movie animation, stereo-anaglyphy, data storage and dissemination. Fragile, rare specimens and type materials in university and museum collections can therefore be virtually processed for a variety of purposes, including virtual loans, website illustrations, publications and digital collections. Micro-CT and other 3D imaging techniques are increasingly utilized to facilitate data sharing among scientists and on education and outreach projects. Hence there is the potential to usher in a new era of global scientific collaboration and public communication using specimens in museum collections.

Describing the Situational Contexts of Sweetened Product Consumption in a Middle Eastern Canadian Community: Application of a Mixed Method Design

Little is known about the situational contexts in which individuals consume processed sources of dietary sugars. This study aimed to describe the situational contexts associated with the consumption of sweetened food and drink products in a Catholic Middle Eastern Canadian community. A two-stage exploratory sequential mixed-method design was employed with a rationale of triangulation. In stage 1 (n = 62), items and themes describing the situational contexts of sweetened food and drink product consumption were identified from semi-structured interviews and were used to develop the content for the Situational Context Instrument for Sweetened Product Consumption (SCISPC). Face validity, readability and cultural relevance of the instrument were assessed. In stage 2 (n = 192), a cross-sectional study was conducted and exploratory factor analysis was used to examine the structure of themes that emerged from the qualitative analysis as a means of furthering construct validation. The SCISPC reliability and predictive validity on the daily consumption of sweetened products were also assessed. In stage 1, six themes and 40-items describing the situational contexts of sweetened product consumption emerged from the qualitative analysis and were used to construct the first draft of the SCISPC. In stage 2, factor analysis enabled the clarification and/or expansion of the instrument's initial thematic structure. The revised SCISPC has seven factors and 31 items describing the situational contexts of sweetened product consumption. Initial validation of the instrument indicated it has excellent internal consistency and adequate test-retest reliability. Two factors of the SCISPC had predictive validity for the daily consumption of total sugar from sweetened products (Snacking and Energy demands) while the other factors (Socialization, Indulgence, Constraints, Visual Stimuli and Emotional needs) were rather associated to occasional consumption of these products.

Reliability and validity of spirituality questionnaire by Parsian and Dunning in the Spanish version

The aim of this methodological study was to translate, culturally adapt and assess the internal consistency and validity of the Spanish version of the "Spirituality Questionnaire". The sample comprised 204 young people between 18 and 25 years of age from two universities in Bogota. Cronbach's Alpha was used for reliability, while groups of experts and young people were used for construct validity. The reliability score of the total instrument was 0.88. The overall index of content validity corresponded to 0.90. Exploratory factor analysis showed that four factors explain 52.60% of the variance. The originally proposed theoretical model was confirmed and, in two dimensions, a different structure was proposed. In conclusion, the instrument "Spirituality Questionnaire" by Parsian and Dunning is reliable and valid in the Spanish version.

Trauma and countertransference: development and validity of the Assessment of Countertransference Scale (ACS)

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to investigate the construct validity of the Assessment of Countertransference Scale (ACS) in the context of the trauma care, through the identification of the underlying latent constructs of the measured items and their homogeneity. Methods: ACS assesses 23 feelings of CT in three factors: closeness, rejection and indifference. ACS was applied to 50 residents in psychiatry after the first appointment with 131 victims of trauma consecutively selected during 4 years. ACS was analyzed by exploratory (EFA) and confirmatory (CFA) factor analysis, internal consistence and convergent-discriminant validity. Results: In spite of the fact that closeness items obtained the highest scores, the EFA showed that the factor rejection (24% of variance, alpha = 0.88) presented a more consistent intercorrelation of the items, followed by closeness (15% of variance, alpha = 0.82) and, a distinct factor, sadness (9% of variance, alpha = 0.72). Thus, a modified version was proposed. In the comparison between the original and the proposed version, CFA detected better goodness-of-fit indexes for the proposed version (GFI = 0.797, TLI = 0.867, CFI = 0.885 vs. GFI = 0.824, TLI = 0.904, CFI = 0.918). Conclusions: ACS is a promising instrument for assessing CT feelings, making it valid to access during the care of trauma victims.

Risk Factor Analysis of Late Survival After Heart Transplantation According to Donor Profile: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Study of 512 Transplants

Introduction. Patients with terminal heart failure have increased more than the available organs leading to a high mortality rate on the waiting list. Use of Marginal and expanded criteria donors has increased due to the heart shortage. Objective. We analyzed all heart transplantations (HTx) in Sao Paulo state over 8 years for donor profile and recipient risk factors. Method. This multi-institutional review collected HTx data from all institutions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. From 2002 to 2008 (6 years), only 512 (28.8%) of 1777 available heart donors were accepted for transplantation. All medical records were analyzed retrospectively; none of the used donors was excluded, even those considered to be nonstandard. Results. The hospital mortality rate was 27.9% (n = 143) and the average follow-up time was 29.4 +/- 28.4 months. The survival rate was 55.5% (n = 285) at 6 years after HTx. Univariate analysis showed the following factors to impact survival: age (P = .0004), arterial hypertension (P = .4620), norepinephrine (P = .0450), cardiac arrest (P = .8500), diabetes mellitus (P = .5120), infection (P = .1470), CKMB (creatine kinase MB) (P = .8694), creatinine (P = .7225), and Na+ (P = .3273). On multivariate analysis, only age showed significance; logistic regression showed a significant cut-off at 40 years: organs from donors older than 40 years showed a lower late survival rates (P = .0032). Conclusions. Donor age older than 40 years represents an important risk factor for survival after HTx. Neither donor gender nor norepinephrine use negatively affected early survival.

Knowledge management and strategic orientation: leveraging innovativeness and performance

Purpose - The aim of this study is to investigate whether knowledge management (KM) contributes to the development of strategic orientation and to enhance innovativeness, and whether these three factors contribute to improve business performance. Design/methodology/approach - A sample of 241 Brazilian companies was surveyed, using Web-based questionnaires with 54 questions, using ten-point scales to measure the degree of agreement on each item of each construct. Structural equation modeling techniques were applied for model assessment and analysis of the relationships among constructs. Exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and path analysis using the technique of structural equation modeling were applied to the data. Findings - Effective KM contributes positively to strategic orientation. Although there is no significant direct effect of KM on innovativeness, the relationship is significant when mediated by strategic orientation. Similarly effective KM has no direct effect on business performance, but this relationship becomes statistically significant when mediated by strategic orientation and innovativeness. Research limitations/implications - The findings indicate that KM permeates all relationships among the constructs, corroborating the argument that knowledge is an essential organizational resource that leverages all value-creating activities. The results indicate that both KM and innovativeness produce significant impacts on performance when they are aligned with a strategic orientation that enables the organization to anticipate and respond to changing market conditions. Originality/value - There is a substantial body of research on several types of relationships involving KM, strategic orientation, innovativeness and performance. This study offers an original contribution by analyzing all of those constructs simultaneously using established scales so that comparative studies are possible.

Orthorexia nervosa behavior in a sample of Brazilian dietitians assessed by the Portuguese version of ORTO-15

BACKGROUND: Orthorexia nervosa (ON) is described as an obsessive pathological behavior characterized by a strong preoccupation with healthy eating and the avoidance of foods or ingredients considered unhealthy by the subject. Although it is still not officially recognized as an eating disorder, previous studies have discussed its frequency in some groups and a fifteen-question test (ORTO-15) was developed elsewhere to assess ON behavior. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate ON behavior in a sample of Brazilian dietitians after testing the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of ORTO-15. METHODS: A total of 392 dietitians answered an online version of the test. The answers were analyzed regarding ON tendency, according with the scoring grid proposed by its authors. Exploratory factor analysis was performed and internal consistency was assessed. RESULTS: It was found that three questions of the test presented loadings lower than 0.5. The 12 remaining question formed 3 factors with internal consistency of -0.51, 0.63 and 0.47. The answers of the participants to these questions revealed a tendency to orthorexic behavior, mainly regarding aspects such as: making food choices conditioned by worry about health status, evaluating food rather from nutritional quality than from its taste, believing that consuming healthy food may improve appearance, discrediting the influence of mood on eating behavior and banning food choices considered by them as eating transgressions. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence of the validity and reliability of the ORTO-15 with the initial psychometric evaluation performed. Further analyses are needed. Nevertheless, it was possible to observe a high frequency of orthorexic behavior among the studied Brazilian dietitians. However, additional studies are needed to completely understand dietitians behavior toward ON. (Eat. Weight Disord. 17: e29-c35, 2012). (C) 2012, Editrice Kurtis

Vehicle emissions and PM2.5 mass concentrations in six Brazilian cities

In Brazil, the principal source of air pollution is the combustion of fuels (ethanol, gasohol, and diesel). In this study, we quantify the contributions that vehicle emissions make to the urban fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass in six state capitals in Brazil, collecting data for use in a larger project evaluating the impact of air pollution on human health. From winter 2007 to winter 2008, we collected 24-h PM2.5 samples, employing gravimetry to determine PM2.5 mass concentrations; reflectance to quantify black carbon concentrations; X-ray fluorescence to characterize elemental composition; and ion chromatography to determine the composition and concentrations of anions and cations. Mean PM2.5 concentrations in the cities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and Recife were 28, 17.2, 14.7, 14.4, 13.4, and 7.3 mu g/m(3), respectively. In Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, black carbon explained approximately 30% of the PM2.5 mass. We used receptor models to identify distinct source-related PM2.5 fractions and correlate those fractions with daily mortality rates. Using specific rotation factor analysis, we identified the following principal contributing factors: soil and crustal material; vehicle emissions and biomass burning (black carbon factor); and fuel oil combustion in industries (sulfur factor). In all six cities, vehicle emissions explained at least 40% of the PM2.5 mass. Elemental composition determination with receptor modeling proved an adequate strategy to identify air pollution sources and to evaluate their short- and long-term effects on human health. Our data could inform decisions regarding environmental policies vis-a-vis health care costs.

Differential arthritogenicity of Staphylococcus aureus strains isolated from biological samples

Background Staphylococcus aureus is the most common agent of septic arthritis that is a severe, rapidly progressive and destructive joint disease. Superantigens produced by S. aureus are considered the major arthritogenic factors. In this study, we compared the arthritogenic potential of five superantigen-producing staphylococcal strains. Methods Male C57BL/6 mice were intravenously infected with ATCC 19095 SEC+, N315 ST5 TSST-1+, S-70 TSST-1+, ATCC 51650 TSST-1+ and ATCC 13565 SEA+ strains. Clinical parameters as body weight, arthritis incidence and clinical score were daily evaluated. Joint histopathological analysis and spleen cytokine production were evaluated at the 14th day after infection. Results Weight loss was observed in all infected mice. ATCC 19095 SEC+, N315 ST5 TSST-1+ and S-70 TSST-1+ were arthritogenic, being the highest scores observed in ATCC 19095 SEC+ infected mice. Intermediate and lower clinical scores were observed in N315 ST5 TSST-1+ and S-70 TSST-1+ infected mice, respectively. The ATCC 13565 SEA+ strain caused death of 85% of the animals after 48 h. Arthritis triggered by the ATCC 19095 SEC+ strain was characterized by accentuated synovial hyperplasia, inflammation, pannus formation, cartilage destruction and bone erosion. Similar joint alterations were found in N315 ST5 TSST-1+ infected mice, however they were strikingly more discrete. Only minor synovial proliferation and inflammation were triggered by the S-70 TSST-1+ strain. The lowest levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-17 production in response to S. aureus stimulation were found in cultures from mice infected with the less arthritogenic strains (S-70 TSST-1+ and ATCC 51650 TSST-1+). The highest production of IL-17 was detected in mice infected with the most arthritogenic strains (ATCC 19095 SEC+ and N315 ST5 TSST-1+). Conclusions Together these results demonstrated that S. aureus strains, isolated from biological samples, were able to induce a typical septic arthritis in mice. These results also suggest that the variable arthritogenicity of these strains was, at least in part, related to their differential ability to induce IL-17 production.

Psychometric validation of the Portuguese version of the Neuropathic Pain Symptoms Inventory

Backgroud: It has been shown that different symptoms or symptom combinations of neuropathic pain (NeP) may correspond to different mechanistic backgrounds and respond differently to treatment. The Neuropathic Pain Symptom Inventory (NPSI) is able to detect distinct clusters of symptoms (i.e. dimensions) with a putative common mechanistic background. The present study described the psychometric validation of the Portuguese version (PV) of the NPSI. Methods: Patients were seen in two consecutive visits, three to four weeks apart. They were asked to: (i) rate their mean pain intensity in the last 24 hours on an 11-point (0-10) numerical scale; (ii) complete the PV-NPSI; (iii) provide the list of pain medications and doses currently in use. VAS and Global Impression of Change (GIC) were filled out in the second visit. Results: PV-NPSI underwent test-retest reliability, factor analysis, analysis of sensitivity to changes between both visits. The PV-NPSI was reliable in this setting, with a good intra-class correlation for all items. The factorial analysis showed that the PV-NPSI inventory assessed different components of neuropathic pain. Five different factors were found. The PV-NPSI was adequate to evaluate patients with neuropathic pain and to detect clusters of NeP symptoms. Conclusions: The psychometric properties of the PV-NPSI rendered it adequate to evaluate patients with both central and peripheral neuropathic pain syndromes and to detect clusters of NeP symptoms.

CID: an efficient complexity-invariant distance for time series

The ubiquity of time series data across almost all human endeavors has produced a great interest in time series data mining in the last decade. While dozens of classification algorithms have been applied to time series, recent empirical evidence strongly suggests that simple nearest neighbor classification is exceptionally difficult to beat. The choice of distance measure used by the nearest neighbor algorithm is important, and depends on the invariances required by the domain. For example, motion capture data typically requires invariance to warping, and cardiology data requires invariance to the baseline (the mean value). Similarly, recent work suggests that for time series clustering, the choice of clustering algorithm is much less important than the choice of distance measure used.In this work we make a somewhat surprising claim. There is an invariance that the community seems to have missed, complexity invariance. Intuitively, the problem is that in many domains the different classes may have different complexities, and pairs of complex objects, even those which subjectively may seem very similar to the human eye, tend to be further apart under current distance measures than pairs of simple objects. This fact introduces errors in nearest neighbor classification, where some complex objects may be incorrectly assigned to a simpler class. Similarly, for clustering this effect can introduce errors by “suggesting” to the clustering algorithm that subjectively similar, but complex objects belong in a sparser and larger diameter cluster than is truly warranted.We introduce the first complexity-invariant distance measure for time series, and show that it generally produces significant improvements in classification and clustering accuracy. We further show that this improvement does not compromise efficiency, since we can lower bound the measure and use a modification of triangular inequality, thus making use of most existing indexing and data mining algorithms. We evaluate our ideas with the largest and most comprehensive set of time series mining experiments ever attempted in a single work, and show that complexity-invariant distance measures can produce improvements in classification and clustering in the vast majority of cases.