7 resultados para scoring rules

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is used to model opinion propagation and consensus formation in societies. Its main feature is that its rules favor bigger groups of agreeing people. In a previous work, we generalized the bounded confidence rule in order to model biases and prejudices in discrete opinion models. In that work, we applied this modification to the Sznajd model and presented some preliminary results. The present work extends what we did in that paper. We present results linking many of the properties of the mean-field fixed points, with only a few qualitative aspects of the confidence rule (the biases and prejudices modeled), finding an interesting connection with graph theory problems. More precisely, we link the existence of fixed points with the notion of strongly connected graphs and the stability of fixed points with the problem of finding the maximal independent sets of a graph. We state these results and present comparisons between the mean field and simulations in Barabasi-Albert networks, followed by the main mathematical ideas and appendices with the rigorous proofs of our claims and some graph theory concepts, together with examples. We also show that there is no qualitative difference in the mean-field results if we require that a group of size q > 2, instead of a pair, of agreeing agents be formed before they attempt to convince other sites (for the mean field, this would coincide with the q-voter model).

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PURPOSE: To indicate orthographic changes to be used as a basic reference for professionals, researchers, doctors, teachers, students and users, which are directly linked and performing activities in health services in general, aimed at implementing the correct orthography in recovery and production of their scientific studies. METHODS: For data collection, were shown some examples of terminology DeCS (Descriptors in Health Science) analyzed according to the current spelling and compared with the Orthographic Vocabulary of Portuguese Language (VOLP). RESULTS: It was select and listed examples of key words and/or terms related to Health Sciences, which was compared to the respective rules of the Orthographic Agreement of Portuguese Language, and divided into three items: graphical accentuation, the non use of dieresis and exceptions and, the use of hyphen. CONCLUSION: This study show some guidelines for the orthographic alterations of the terms used by scientific community, according the new orthographic rules, contributing for the efficiency in the description of the documents and consequently in their recovery.

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We use the QCD sum rules to study possible B-c-like molecular states. We consider isoscalar J(P) = 0(+) and J(P) = 1(+) D(*) B(*) molecular currents. We consider the contributions of condensates up to dimension eight and we work at leading order in alpha(s). We obtain for these states masses around 7 GeV. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: The prevalence and severity of tooth wear and dental erosion is rising in children and there is no consensus about an index to be employed. Aim: To assess the reliability of an epidemiological scoring system dental wear index (DWI) to measure tooth wear and dental erosive wear. Design: An epidemiological cross-sectional survey was conducted to evaluate and compare tooth wear and dental erosion using the dental wear index and erosion wear index (EWI). The study was conducted with randomised samples of 2,371 children aged between 4 years and 12 years selected from the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Records were used for calculating tooth wear and dental erosion; the incisal edge and canine cusp were excluded. Results: As the schoolchildren's ages increased the severity of primary tooth wear increased in canines (P = 0.0001, OR = 0.34) and molars (P = 0.0001, OR = 2.47) and erosion wear increased in incisal/occlusal (P = 0.0001, OR = 5.18) and molars (P = 0.0001, OR = 2.47). There was an increased prevalence of wear in the permanent teeth of older schoolchildren, particularly on the incisal/occlusal surfaces (P = 0.0001, OR = 7.03). Conclusion: The prevalence of tooth wear and dental erosion increased as age increased in children. The epidemiological scoring system Dental Wear Index is able to measure both tooth wear and dental erosive wear. This index should be used to monitor the progression of non-carious lesions and to evaluate the levels of disease in the population.

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We use the QCD sum rules to study the recently observed charmonium-like structure Z+ c (3900) as a tetraquark state. We evaluate the three-point function and extract the coupling constants of the Z+ c J/ψ π+, Z+ c ηc ρ+ and Z+ c D+ ¯D∗0 vertices and the corresponding decay widths in these channels. The results obtained are in good agreement with the experimental data and supports to the tetraquark picture of this state.

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We study, using the QCD sum rule framework, the possible existence of a charmed pentaquark that we call Θc(3250). In the QCD side we work at leading order in αs and consider condensates up to dimension 10. The mass obtained: mΘc = (3.21±0.13) GeV, is compatible with the mass of the structure seen by BaBar Collaboration in the decay channel B− →  ̄p Σ++ c π−π−.