A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Falhas de mercado e redes em políticas públicas: desafios e possibilidades ao Sistema Único de Saúde

Os princípios e as diretrizes do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) impõem uma estrutura de assistência baseada em redes de políticas públicas que, combinada ao modelo de financiamento adotado, conduz a falhas de mercado. Isso impõe barreiras à gestão do sistema público de saúde e à concretização dos objetivos do SUS. As características institucionais e a heterogeneidade dos atores, aliadas à existência de diferentes redes de atenção à saúde, geram complexidade analítica no estudo da dinâmica global da rede do SUS. Há limitações ao emprego de métodos quantitativos baseados em análise estática com dados retrospectivos do sistema público de saúde. Assim, propõe-se a abordagem do SUS como sistema complexo, a partir da utilização de metodologia quantitativa inovadora baseada em simulação computacional. O presente artigo buscou analisar desafios e potencialidades na utilização de modelagem com autômatos celulares combinada com modelagem baseada em agentes para simulação da evolução da rede de serviços do SUS. Tal abordagem deve permitir melhor compreensão da organização, heterogeneidade e dinâmica estrutural da rede de serviços do SUS e possibilitar minimização dos efeitos das falhas de mercado no sistema de saúde brasileiro.

Prevalence of asthma and risk factors associated: population based study in Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, 2008-2009

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of asthma and risk factors associated in children and adolescents. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study with 1,185 female and male children and adolescents carried out in the city of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from 2008 to 2009. Data were collected through home interviews. Respondents were selected from two-stage (census tract, household) cluster random sampling stratified by gender and age. Multiple Poisson regression was used in the adjusted analysis between the outcome and socioeconomic, demographic, lifestyle and health condition variables. RESULTS: Of all respondents, 9.1% (95%CI 7.0; 11.7) reported asthma. After adjustment, the following variables were found independently associated with asthma: age (0 to 4 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 3.18, 95%CI 1.20;8.42); age (5 to 9 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 6.37, 95%CI 2.64;15.39); age (10 to 14 years vs. 15 to 19) (PR 4.51,95%CI 1.95;10.40); allergy (yes vs. no) (PR 2.22, 95%CI 1.24;4.00); rhinitis (yes vs. no) (PR 2.13, 95%CI 1.22;3.73); health conditions in the 15 days preceding the interview (yes vs. no) (PR 1.96, 95%CI 1.23;3.11); number of rooms in the household (1 to 3 vs. 4 and more) (PR 1.67, 95%CI 1.05;2.66); and skin color (black and mixed vs. white) (PR 2.00, 95%CI 1.14;3.49). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the importance of factors associated with asthma including rhinitis and allergy; age between 5 to 9 years old; black and mixed skin color; and household with few rooms. Frequent health problems are seen as a common consequence of asthma.

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Work Precariousness and Risk of Accidents in Civil Construction: A study based on the Collective Work Analysis

This paper aims to describe the construction workers' activities, as well as their perceptions about risks and workload. The study, based on the Collective Work Analysis, is part of a broader public policies project for the improvement of SIVAT (Surveillance System of Work Accidents) - in the city of Piracicaba (Southeastern Brazil). Civil construction was prioritized given the epidemiological magnitude of the occurrence of work accidents and the limited efficacy of traditional surveillance initiatives in this sector due to informal employment practices, outsourcing, high staff turnover, etc. The workers have a high level of awareness concerning the risk of accidents, but they believe that the main preventive measures hinder or even make it impossible for them to carry out the tasks. Our findings question the efficacy of traditional training for adherence to safety practices, thus highlighting the need for a transformative pedagogy for preventive practices and the health promotion of workers.

Autoantibodies and High-Risk HLA Susceptibility Markers in First-Degree Relatives of Brazilian Patients with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Progression to Disease Based Study

The objective of this study was to determine the frequencies of autoantibodies to heterogeneous islet-cell cytoplasmic antigens (ICA), glutamic acid decarboxylase(65) (GAD(65)A), insulinoma-associated antigen-2 (IA-2A) and insulin (IAA)-and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II markers (HLA-DR and -DQ) in first degree relatives of heterogeneous Brazilian patients with type I diabetes(T1DM). A major focus of this study was to determine the influence of age, gender, proband characteristics and ancestry on the prevalence of autoantibodies and HLA-DR and -DQ alleles on disease progression and genetic predisposition to T1DM among the first-degree relatives. IAA, ICA, GAD(65)A, IA-2A and HLA- class II alleles were determined in 546 first-degree-relatives, 244 siblings, 55 offspring and 233 parents of 178 Brazilian patients with T1DM. Overall, 8.9% of the relatives were positive for one or more autoantibodies. IAA was the only antibody detected in parents. GAD(65) was the most prevalent antibody in offspring and siblings as compared to parents and it was the sole antibody detected in offspring. Five siblings were positive for the IA-2 antibody. A significant number (62.1%) of siblings had 1 or 2 high risk HLA haplotypes. During a 4-year follow-up study, 5 siblings (expressing HLA-DR3 or -DR4 alleles) and 1 offspring positive for GAD(65)A progressed to diabetes. The data indicated that the GAD(65) and IA-2 antibodies were the strongest predictors of T1DM in our study population. The high risk HLA haplotypes alone were not predictive of progression to overt diabetes.

Gender-based violence and socioeconomic inequalities: Does living in more deprived neighbourhoods increase women's risk of intimate partner violence?

This study investigates the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions on women's likelihood of experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data from 940 women who were interviewed as part of the WHO multi-country study on women's health and domestic violence against women, and census data for Sao Paulo City, were analyzed using multilevel regression techniques. A neighbourhood socioeconomic-level scale was created, and proxies for the socioeconomic positions of the couple were included. Other individual level variables included factors related to partner's behaviour and women's experiences and attitudes. Women's risk of IPV did not vary across neighbourhoods in Sao Paulo nor was it influenced by her individual socioeconomic characteristics. However, women in the middle range of the socioeconomic scale were significantly more likely to report having experienced violence by a partner. Partner behaviours such as excessive alcohol use, controlling behaviour and multiple sexual partnerships were important predictors of IPV. A women's likelihood of IPV also increased if either her mother had experienced IPV or if she used alcohol excessively. These findings suggest that although the characteristics of people living in deprived neighbourhoods may influence the probability that a woman will experience IPV, higher-order contextual dynamics do not seem to affect this risk. While poverty reduction will improve the lives of individuals in many ways, strategies to reduce IPV should prioritize shifting norms that reinforce certain negative male behaviours. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Goal-directed fluid management based on pulse pressure variation monitoring during high-risk surgery: a pilot randomized controlled trial

Abstract Introduction Several studies have shown that maximizing stroke volume (or increasing it until a plateau is reached) by volume loading during high-risk surgery may improve post-operative outcome. This goal could be achieved simply by minimizing the variation in arterial pulse pressure (ΔPP) induced by mechanical ventilation. We tested this hypothesis in a prospective, randomized, single-centre study. The primary endpoint was the length of postoperative stay in hospital. Methods Thirty-three patients undergoing high-risk surgery were randomized either to a control group (group C, n = 16) or to an intervention group (group I, n = 17). In group I, ΔPP was continuously monitored during surgery by a multiparameter bedside monitor and minimized to 10% or less by volume loading. Results Both groups were comparable in terms of demographic data, American Society of Anesthesiology score, type, and duration of surgery. During surgery, group I received more fluid than group C (4,618 ± 1,557 versus 1,694 ± 705 ml (mean ± SD), P < 0.0001), and ΔPP decreased from 22 ± 75 to 9 ± 1% (P < 0.05) in group I. The median duration of postoperative stay in hospital (7 versus 17 days, P < 0.01) was lower in group I than in group C. The number of postoperative complications per patient (1.4 ± 2.1 versus 3.9 ± 2.8, P < 0.05), as well as the median duration of mechanical ventilation (1 versus 5 days, P < 0.05) and stay in the intensive care unit (3 versus 9 days, P < 0.01) was also lower in group I. Conclusion Monitoring and minimizing ΔPP by volume loading during high-risk surgery improves postoperative outcome and decreases the length of stay in hospital. Trial registration NCT00479011