Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Changes in subduction in the South Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century in the CCSM3

The Community Climate System Model version 3 is used to analyse changes in water mass subduction rates in the South Atlantic Ocean over the 21st century. The model results are first compared to observations over 1950-2000, and shown to be rather good. The subduction rates do not change significantly over the 21st century, but the densities at which water masses form become significantly lighter. The strong westerly winds in this region do not change much, which suggests small changes to the rate at which the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean takes up heat and carbon dioxide over the 21st century.

Effects of irrigation on water use and water use efficiency in two fast growing Eucalyptus plantations

Eucalyptus plantations occupy almost 20 million ha worldwide and exceed 3.7 million ha in Brazil alone. Improved genetics and silviculture have led to as much as a three-fold increase in productivity in Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil and the large land area occupied by these highly productive ecosystems raises concern over their effect on local water supplies. As part of the Brazil Potential Productivity Project, we measured water use of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla clones in rainfed and irrigated stands in two plantations differing in productivity. The Aracruz (lower productivity) site is located in the state of Espirito Santo and the Veracel (higher productivity) site in Bahia state. At each plantation, we measured stand water use using homemade sap flow sensors and a calibration curve using the clones and probes we utilized in the study. We also quantified changes in growth, leaf area and water use efficiency (the amount of wood produced per unit of water transpired). Measurements were conducted for 1 year during 2005 at Aracruz and from August through December 2005 at Veracel. Transpiration at both sites was high compared to other studies but annual estimates at Aracruz for the rainfed treatment compared well with a process model calibrated for the Aracruz site (within 10%). Annual water use at Aracruz was 1394 mm in rainfed treatments versus 1779 mm in irrigated treatments and accounted for approximately 67% and 58% of annual precipitation and irrigation inputs respectively. Increased water use in the irrigated stands at Aracruz was associated with higher sapwood area, leaf area index and transpiration per unit leaf area but there was no difference in the response of canopy conductance with air saturation deficit between treatments. Water use efficiency at the Aracruz site was also not influenced by irrigation and was similar to the rainfed treatment. During the period of overlapping measurements, the response to irrigation treatments at the more productive Veracel site was similar to Aracruz. Stand water use at the Veracel site totaled 975 mm and 1102 mm in rainfed and irrigated treatments during the 5-month measurement period respectively. Irrigated stands at Veracel also had higher leaf area with no difference in the response of canopy conductance with air saturation deficit between treatments. Water use efficiency was also unaffected by irrigation at Veracel. Results from this and other studies suggest that improved resource availability does not negatively impact water use efficiency but increased productivity of these plantations is associated with higher water use and should be given consideration during plantation management decision making processes aimed at increasing productivity. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Changes in the intermediate water mass formation rates in the global ocean for the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climates

The paleoclimate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 (NCAR-CCSM3) is used to analyze changes in the water formation rates in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) control climate. During the MH, CCSM3 exhibits a north-south asymmetric response of intermediate water subduction changes in the Atlantic Ocean, with a reduction of 2 Sv in the North Atlantic and an increase of 2 Sv in the South Atlantic relative to PI. During the LGM, there is increased formation of intermediate water and a more stagnant deep ocean in the North Pacific. The production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is significantly weakened. The NADW is replaced in large extent by enhanced Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), and also by an intensified of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), with the latter being a response to the enhanced salinity and ice formation around Antarctica. Most of the LGM intermediate/mode water is formed at 27.4 < sigma(theta) < 29.0 kg/m(3), while for the MH and PI most of the subduction transport occurs at 26.5 < sigma(theta) < 27.4 kg/m(3). The simulated LGM Southern Hemisphere winds are more intense by 0.2-0.4 dyne/cm(2). Consequently, increased Ekman transport drives the production of intermediate water (low salinity) at a larger rate and at higher densities when compared to the other climatic periods.

Comparative analysis of the pathological events involved in immune and non-immune TRALI models

Background and Objectives Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is characterized by leukocyte transmigration and alveolar capillary leakage shortly after transfusion. TRALI pathogenesis has not been fully elucidated. In some cases, the infusion of alloantibodies (immune model), whereas in others the combination of neutrophil priming by proinflammatory molecules with the subsequent infusion of biological response modifiers (BRMs) in the hemocomponent (non-immune model) have been implicated. Our aim was to compare the pathological events involved in TRALI induced by antibodies or BRMs using murine models. Materials and Methods In the immune model, human HNA-2+ neutrophils were incubated in vitro with a monoclonal antibody (anti-CD177, clone 7D8) directed against the HNA-2 antigen and injected i.v. in NOD/SCID mice. In the non-immune model, BALB/c mice were treated with low doses of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) followed by platelet-activating factor (PAF) infusion 2 h later. Forty minutes after PAF administration, or 6 h after neutrophil injection, lungs were isolated and histological analysis, determination of a variety of cytokines and chemokines including keratinocyte-derived chemokine (KC), MIP-2, the interleukins IL-1 beta, IL-6, IL-8 as well as TNFa, cell influx and alveolar capillary leakage were performed. Results In both models, characteristic histological findings of TRALI and an increase in KC and MIP-2 levels were detected. In contrast to the immune model, in the non-immune model, there was a dramatic increase in IL-1 beta and TNFa. However, capillary leakage was only detected if PAF was administrated. Conclusions Regardless of the triggering event(s), KC, MIP-2 and integrins participate in TRALI pathogenesis, whereas PAF is essential for capillary leakage when two events are involved.

RegCM3 nested in HadAM3 scenarios A2 and B2: projected changes in extratropical cyclogenesis, temperature and precipitation over the South Atlantic Ocean

The RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model-version 3) was nested in HadAM3 model to simulate present (1975-1989, referred hereafter as RegHad) and two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2 from 2071 to 2085, referred as RegA2 and RegB2) over the South America (SA) and South Atlantic Ocean (SAO). Projected changes in the air temperature, precipitation, low level circulation and cyclogenesis climatology were investigated. The cyclogenesis were identified using an automatic scheme for tracking based on the minimum of relative vorticity (zeta) from 10-m height wind. During summer, a general decrease (increase) in the precipitation is projected by RegA2 and RegB2 over the northeastern SA (center-west and south Brazil, north Argentina and Uruguay). For winter, an anomalous low level anticyclonic circulation is associated with the reduction in the rainfall over the central part of southern Brazil in RegA2 and RegB2 scenarios. Similar to HadAM3, RegCM3 projects larger warming in A2 scenario. For the present climate, when compared to HadAM3, RegHad defines better both the location of the main cyclogenetic areas and its annual cycle near southwestern SAO. The projections indicate a reduction in the total number of cyclones of -7.2% and -4.7% for RegA2 and RegB2, respectively, while HadAM3 reduction is -4.5% for both scenarios. The decrease is larger for initially intense cyclones (zeta <=-<= 2.5 x 10(-5) s-(1)): -20.9% (RegA2) and -11.3% (RegB2). For the lifetime, distance traveled and mean velocity of the cyclones, the A2 and B2 scenarios present mean values close to the present climate ( 3 days, 1900 km, and 9 m s(-1), respectively). Regarding the initial mean vorticity of the systems, RegB2 simulates values similar to the present climate, but they are initially weaker in RegA2. In general, RegA2 and RegB2 show a large decrease in the number of cyclones over the southern SAO due to an anticyclonic anomaly covering SAO between 30-55A degrees S. The reduction is larger in the scenario with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases (RegA2).

The Southern Ocean and Its Climate in CCSM4

The new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), provides a powerful tool to understand and predict the earth's climate system. Several aspects of the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4 are explored, including the surface climatology and interannual variability, simulation of key climate water masses (Antarctic Bottom Water, Subantarctic Mode Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water), the transport and structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and interbasin exchange via the Agulhas and Tasman leakages and at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence. It is found that the CCSM4 has varying degrees of accuracy in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Ocean when compared with observations. This study has identified aspects of the model that warrant further analysis that will result in a more comprehensive understanding of ocean-atmosphere-ice dynamics and interactions that control the earth's climate and its variability.

Two versions of the threshold contact model in two dimensions

Two versions of the threshold contact process ordinary and conservative - are studied on a square lattice. In the first, particles are created on active sites, those having at least two nearest neighbor sites occupied, and are annihilated spontaneously. In the conservative version, a particle jumps from its site to an active site. Mean-field analysis suggests the existence of a first-order phase transition, which is confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. In the thermodynamic limit, the two versions are found to give the same results. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biological evaluation of the bone healing process after application of two potentially osteogenic proteins: an animal experimental model

doi: 10.1111/j.1741-2358.2011.00526.x Biological evaluation of the bone healing process after application of two potentially osteogenic proteins: an animal experimental model Objective: The aim of this work was to analyse qualitatively and quantitatively the newly formed bone after insertion of rhBMP-2 and protein extracted from Hevea brasiliensis (P-1), associated or not with a carrier in critical bone defects created in Wistar rat calvarial bone, using histological and histomorphometrical analyses. Materials and methods: Eighty-four male Wistar rats were used, divided into two groups, according to the period of time until the sacrifice (2 and 6 weeks). Each one of these groups was subdivided into six groups with seven animals each, according to the treatments: (1) 5 mu g of pure rhBMP-2, (2) 5 mu g of rhBMP-2/monoolein gel, (3) pure monoolein gel, (4) 5 mu g of pure P-1, (5) 5 mu g of P-1/monoolein gel and (6) critical bone defect controls. The animals were euthanised and the calvarial bone tissue removed for histological and histomorphometrical analyses. Result and conclusion: The results showed an improvement in the bone healing process using the rhBMP-2 protein, associated or not with a material carrier in relation to the other groups, and this process demonstrated to be time dependent.

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two-factor model available in the literature.

Strategy and model building in the fourth dimension: a null model for genotype × age interaction as a Gaussian stationary stochastic process

Abstract Background Using univariate and multivariate variance components linkage analysis methods, we studied possible genotype × age interaction in cardiovascular phenotypes related to the aging process from the Framingham Heart Study. Results We found evidence for genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure. Conclusions There is polygenic genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure and quantitative trait locus × age interaction for a linkage signal for systolic blood pressure phenotypes located on chromosome 17 at 67 cM.

Stochastic quantization of the spherical model and supersymmetry.

In this work, we reported some results about the stochastic quantization of the spherical model. We started by reviewing some basic aspects of this method with emphasis in the connection between the Langevin equation and the supersymmetric quantum mechanics, aiming at the application of the corresponding connection to the spherical model. An intuitive idea is that when applied to the spherical model this gives rise to a supersymmetric version that is identified with one studied in Phys. Rev. E 85, 061109, (2012). Before investigating in detail this aspect, we studied the stochastic quantization of the mean spherical model that is simpler to implement than the one with the strict constraint. We also highlight some points concerning more traditional methods discussed in the literature like canonical and path integral quantization. To produce a supersymmetric version, grounded in the Nicolai map, we investigated the stochastic quantization of the strict spherical model. We showed in fact that the result of this process is an off-shell supersymmetric extension of the quantum spherical model (with the precise supersymmetric constraint structure). That analysis establishes a connection between the classical model and its supersymmetric quantum counterpart. The supersymmetric version in this way constructed is a more natural one and gives further support and motivations to investigate similar connections in other models of the literature.