Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdos-Renyi (ER), Barabasi-Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered.

Spontaneous combined rupture of a pelvicalyceal cyst into the collector system and retroperitoneal space during the acquisition of computed tomography scan images: a case report

Abstract Introduction Pelvicalyceal cysts are common findings in autopsies and can manifest with a variety of patterns. These cystic lesions are usually a benign entity with no clinical significance unless they enlarge enough to cause compression of the adjacent collecting system and consequently obstructive uropathy. Few cases of the spontaneous rupture of pelvicalyceal renal cysts have been published and to the best of our knowledge there is no report of a combined rupture to collector system and retroperitoneal space documented during a multiphase computed tomography. Case presentation We report a case of a ‘real-time’ spontaneous rupture of a pelvicalyceal cyst into the collecting system with fistulization into the retroperitoneum. The patient was a 78-year-old Caucasian man with a previous history of renal stones and a large pelvicalyceal renal cyst who was admitted to our Emergency department with acute right flank pain. A multiphase computed tomography was performed and the pre-contrast images demonstrated a right pelvicalyceal renal cyst measuring 12.0 × 6.1cm in the lower pole causing moderate dilation of the upper right renal collection system. In addition, a partially obstructive stone on the left distal ureter with mild left hydronephrosis was noted. The nephrographic phase did not add any new information. The excretory phase (10-minute delay) demonstrated a spontaneous rupture of the cyst into the pelvicalyceal system with posterior fistulization into the retroperitoneal space. Conclusion In this case study we present time-related changes of a rare pelvicalyceal cyst complication, which to the best of our knowledge has fortunately not been previously documented. Analysis of the sequential images and comparison with an earlier scan allowed us to better understand the physiopathological process of the rupture, the clinical presentation and to elaborate hypotheses for its etiopathogenesis.

Development of a supplier and purchase order management product/service under the 4PL logistics concept: a case study

Supply chain starts with a demand arisen and ends with material transport and delivery at its final destination. With this in mind, most of manufacturing, processors or distribution companies of consumer goods, spare parts and components for production, processing and finished goods, within national or international markets, may not have information and control over its supply chain performance. This article presents concept and logistics models evolution, purchase order and international supplier management, control tower and its logistics information systems. This also presents a real process implementation for a global high tech manufacturer company.