Clusters of leprosy transmission and of late diagnosis in a highly endemic area in Brazil: focus on different spatial analysis approaches

Objective The Brazilian National Hansens Disease Control Program recently identified clusters with high disease transmission. Herein, we present different spatial analytical approaches to define highly vulnerable areas in one of these clusters. Method The study area included 373 municipalities in the four Brazilian states Maranha o, Para ', Tocantins and Piaui '. Spatial analysis was based on municipalities as the observation unit, considering the following disease indicators: (i) rate of new cases / 100 000 population, (ii) rate of cases < 15 years / 100 000 population, (iii) new cases with grade-2 disability / 100 000 population and (iv) proportion of new cases with grade-2 disabilities. We performed descriptive spatial analysis, local empirical Bayesian analysis and spatial scan statistic. Results A total of 254 (68.0%) municipalities were classified as hyperendemic (mean annual detection rates > 40 cases / 100 000 inhabitants). There was a concentration of municipalities with higher detection rates in Para ' and in the center of Maranha o. Spatial scan statistic identified 23 likely clusters of new leprosy case detection rates, most of them localized in these two states. These clusters included only 32% of the total population, but 55.4% of new leprosy cases. We also identified 16 significant clusters for the detection rate < 15 years and 11 likely clusters of new cases with grade-2. Several clusters of new cases with grade-2 / population overlap with those of new cases detection and detection of children < 15 years of age. The proportion of new cases with grade-2 did not reveal any significant clusters. Conclusions Several municipality clusters for high leprosy transmission and late diagnosis were identified in an endemic area using different statistical approaches. Spatial scan statistic is adequate to validate and confirm high-risk leprosy areas for transmission and late diagnosis, identified using descriptive spatial analysis and using local empirical Bayesian method. National and State leprosy control programs urgently need to intensify control actions in these highly vulnerable municipalities.

Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with Sao Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata. IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In Sao Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in Sao Paulo.

Quality characteristics and fertilizing ability of ram sperm subpopulations separated by partition in an aqueous two-phase system

Centrifugal countercurrent distribution (CCCD) in an aqueous two-phase system (TPS) is a resolute technique revealing sperm heterogeneity and for the estimation of the fertilizing potential of a given semen sample. However, separated sperm subpopulations have never been tested for their fertilizing ability yet. Here, we have compared sperm quality parameters and the fertilizing ability of sperm subpopulations separated by the CCCD process from ram semen samples maintained at 20 degrees C or cooled down to 5 degrees C. Total and progressive sperm motility was evaluated by computer-assisted analysis using a CASA system and membrane integrity was evaluated by flow cytometry by staining with CFDA/Pl. The capacitation state, staining with chlortetracycline, and apoptosis-related markers, such as phosphatidylserine (PS) translocation detected with Annexin V. and DNA damage detected by the TUNEL assay, were determined by fluorescence microscopy. Additionally, the fertilizing ability of the fractionated subpopulations was comparative assessed by zona binding assay (ZBA). CCCD analysis revealed that the number of spermatozoa displaying membrane and DNA alterations was higher in samples chilled at 5 degrees C than at 20 degrees C. which can be reflected in the displacement to the left of the CCCD profiles. The spermatozoa located in the central and right chambers (more hydrophobic) presented higher values (P<0.01) of membrane integrity, lower PS translocation (P<0.05) and DNA damage (P<0.001) than those in the left part of the profile, where apoptotic markers were significantly increased and the proportion of viable non-capacitated sperm was reduced. We have developed a new protocol to recover spermatozoa from the CCCD fractions and we proved that these differences were related with the fertilizing ability determined by ZBA, because we found that the number of spermatozoa attached per oocyte was significantly higher for spermatozoa recovered from the central and right chambers, in both types of samples. This is the first time, to our knowledge that sperm recovered from a two-phase partition procedure are used for fertilization assays. These results open up new possibilities for using specific subpopulations of sperm for artificial insemination or in vitro fertilization, not only regarding better sperm quality but also certain characteristics such as subpopulations enriched in spermatozoa bearing X or Y chromosome that we have already isolated or any other feature. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of connectivity on the firing rate in a neuronal network with electrical and chemical synapses

We study the firing rate properties of a cellular automaton model for a neuronal network with chemical synapses. We propose a simple mechanism in which the nonlocal connections are included, through electrical and chemical synapses. In the latter case, we introduce a time delay which produces self-sustained activity. Nonlocal connections, or shortcuts, are randomly introduced according to a specified connection probability. There is a range of connection probabilities for which neuron firing occurs, as well as a critical probability for which the firing ceases in the absence of time delay. The critical probability for nonlocal shortcuts depends on the network size according to a power-law. We also compute the firing rate amplification factor by varying both the connection probability and the time delay for different network sizes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis in prison inmates

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalences of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis ill inmates. METHODS: Observational study was carried out with inmates of a prison and a jail in the State of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between March and December of 2008. Questionnaires were used to collect sociodemographic and epidemiological data. Tuberculin skin testing was administered (PPD-RT23-2TU/0.1 mL), and the following laboratory tests were also performed: sputum smear examination, sputum culture, identification of strains isolated and drug susceptibility testing. The variables were compared using Pearson's chi-square (chi(2)) association test, Fisher's exact test and the proportion test. RESULTS: Of the 2,435 inmates interviewed, 2,237(91.9%) agreed to submit to tuberculin skin testing and of these, 73.0% had positive reactions. The prevalence of tuberculosis was 830.6 per 100,000 inmates. The coefficients of prevalence were 1,029.5/100,000 for inmates of the prison and 525.7/100,000 for inmates of the jail. The sociodemographic characteristics of the inmates in the two groups studied were similar; most of the inmates were young and single with little schooling. The epidemiological characteristics differed between the prison units, with the number of cases of previous tuberculosis and of previous contact with the disease greater in the prison and coughing, expectoration and smoking more common in the jail. Among the 20 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains identified, 95.0% were sensitive to anti-tuberculosis drugs, and 5.0% were resistant to streptomycin. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalences of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis were higher in the incarcerated population than in the general population, and they were also higher in the prison than in the jail.

The polysurvival model with long-term survivors

Long-term survival models have historically been considered for analyzing time-to-event data with long-term survivors fraction. However, situations in which a fraction (1 - p) of systems is subject to failure from independent competing causes of failure, while the remaining proportion p is cured or has not presented the event of interest during the time period of the study, have not been fully considered in the literature. In order to accommodate such situations, we present in this paper a new long-term survival model. Maximum likelihood estimation procedure is discussed as well as interval estimation and hypothesis tests. A real dataset illustrates the methodology.

Modelling shared attention through relational reinforcement learning

Shared attention is a type of communication very important among human beings. It is sometimes reserved for the more complex form of communication being constituted by a sequence of four steps: mutual gaze, gaze following, imperative pointing and declarative pointing. Some approaches have been proposed in Human-Robot Interaction area to solve part of shared attention process, that is, the most of works proposed try to solve the first two steps. Models based on temporal difference, neural networks, probabilistic and reinforcement learning are methods used in several works. In this article, we are presenting a robotic architecture that provides a robot or agent, the capacity of learning mutual gaze, gaze following and declarative pointing using a robotic head interacting with a caregiver. Three learning methods have been incorporated to this architecture and a comparison of their performance has been done to find the most adequate to be used in real experiment. The learning capabilities of this architecture have been analyzed by observing the robot interacting with the human in a controlled environment. The experimental results show that the robotic head is able to produce appropriate behavior and to learn from sociable interaction.

New Brazilian Floristic List Highlights Conservation Challenges

A comprehensive new inventory of Brazilian plants and fungi was published just in time to meet a 2010 Convention on Biological Diversity target and offers important insights into this biodiversity's global significance. Brazil is the home to the world's richest flora (40,989 species; 18,932 endemic) and includes two of the hottest hotspots: Mata Atlantica (19,355 species) and Cerrado (12,669 species). Although the total number of known species is one-third lower than previous estimates, the absolute number of endemic vascular plant species is higher than was previously estimated, and the proportion of endemism (56%) is the highest in the Neotropics. This compilation serves not merely to quantify the scale of the challenge faced in conserving Brazil's unique flora but also serves as a key resource to direct action and monitor progress. Similar efforts by other megadiverse countries are urgently required if the 2020 targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation are to be attained.

The impact of late diagnosis on the survival of patients following their first AIDS-related hospitalization in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm(3) and >= 1000 mm(3)), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity off acilitating HIV diagnosis.

Latent residual analysis in binary regression with skewed link

Model diagnostics is an integral part of model determination and an important part of the model diagnostics is residual analysis. We adapt and implement residuals considered in the literature for the probit, logistic and skew-probit links under binary regression. New latent residuals for the skew-probit link are proposed here. We have detected the presence of outliers using the residuals proposed here for different models in a simulated dataset and a real medical dataset.

Nursing Workload as a Risk Factor for Healthcare Associated Infections in ICU: A Prospective Study

Introduction: Nurse understaffing is frequently hypothesized as a potential risk factor for healthcare-associated infections (HAI). This study aimed to evaluate the role of nursing workload in the occurrence of HAI, using Nursing Activities Score (NAS). Methods: This prospective cohort study enrolled all patients admitted to 3 Medical ICUs and one step-down unit during 3 months (2009). Patients were followed-up until HAI, discharge or death. Information was obtained from direct daily observation of medical and nursing rounds, chart review and monitoring of laboratory system. Nursing workload was determined using NAS. Non-compliance to the nurses' patient care plans (NPC) was identified. Demographic data, clinical severity, invasive procedures, hospital interventions, and the occurrence of other adverse events were also recorded. Patients who developed HAI were compared with those who did not. Results: 195 patients were included and 43 (22%) developed HAI: 16 pneumonia, 12 urinary-tract, 8 bloodstream, 2 surgical site, 2 other respiratory infections and 3 other. Average NAS and average proportion of non compliance with NPC were significantly higher in HAI patients. They were also more likely to suffer other adverse events. Only excessive nursing workload (OR: 11.41; p: 0.019) and severity of patient's clinical condition (OR: 1.13; p: 0.015) remained as risk factors to HAI. Conclusions: Excessive nursing workload was the main risk factor for HAI, when evaluated together with other invasive devices except mechanical ventilation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate prospectively the nursing workload as a potential risk factor for HAI, using NAS.

Genetic diversity of Stryphnodendron adstringens (Mart.) Coville determined by AFLP molecular markers

Bark extracts of Stryphnodendron adstringens (Mart) Coville a Leguminosae species, well known in Brazil as barbatimao, are popularly used as healing agent. The objective of this work was to determine the genetic diversity of S. adstringens populations and to correlate genetic distances to the production of tannins. S. adstringens accessions from populations found in Cerrado regions in the states of Goias, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo were analyzed using the AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) technique. A total of 236 polymorphic bands were scored and higher proportion of genetic diversity was found inter populations (70.9%), rather than intra populations (29.1%). F-ST value was found to be significantly greater than zero (0.2906), demonstrating the complex genetic structure of S. adstringens populations. Accessions collected in Cristalina, GO, showed higher percentage of polymorphic loci (87.3%) and the highest genetic diversity. The lowest genetic variability was detected among accessions from the population growing in Caldas Novas, GO. The genetic distance among populations was estimated using the Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA), which grouped populations into 3 clusters. Moreover, chemotypes with tannin concentration above 40% showed higher genetic similarity. AFLP analysis proved to be an efficient gene mapping technique to determine the genetic diversity among remaining populations of S. adstringens. Obtained results may be employed to implement further strategies for the conservation of this medicinal plant. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in community-dwelling older people when compared to usual care: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (Prevquedas Brazil)

Background Falling in older age is a major public health concern due to its costly and disabling consequences. However very few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted in developing countries, in which population ageing is expected to be particularly substantial in coming years. This article describes the design of an RCT to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in reducing the rate of falls in community-dwelling older people. Methods/design Multicentre parallel-group RCT involving 612 community-dwelling men and women aged 60 years and over, who have fallen at least once in the previous year. Participants will be recruited in multiple settings in Sao Paulo, Brazil and will be randomly allocated to a control group or an intervention group. The usual care control group will undergo a fall risk factor assessment and be referred to their clinicians with the risk assessment report so that individual modifiable risk factors can be managed without any specific guidance. The intervention group will receive a 12-week Multifactorial Falls Prevention Program consisting of: an individualised medical management of modifiable risk factors, a group-based, supervised balance training exercise program plus an unsupervised home-based exercise program, an educational/behavioral intervention. Both groups will receive a leaflet containing general information about fall prevention strategies. Primary outcome measures will be the rate of falls and the proportion of fallers recorded by monthly falls diaries and telephone calls over a 12 month period. Secondary outcomes measures will include risk of falling, fall-related self-efficacy score, measures of balance, mobility and strength, fall-related health services use and independence with daily tasks. Data will be analysed using the intention-to-treat principle.The incidence of falls in the intervention and control groups will be calculated and compared using negative binomial regression analysis. Discussion This study is the first trial to be conducted in Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention to prevent falls. If proven to reduce falls this study has the potential to benefit older adults and assist health care practitioners and policy makers to implement and promote effective falls prevention interventions. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01698580)

Theoretical models to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes

This paper shows theoretical models (analytical formulations) to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes and how some parameters can influence this behavior. Thus, firstly, it was developed the analytical formulations for a pressurized tube made of composite material with a single thick ply and only one lamination angle. For this case, the stress distribution and the displacement fields are investigated as function of different lamination angles and reinforcement volume fractions. The results obtained by the theoretical model are physic consistent and coherent with the literature information. After that, the previous formulations are extended in order to predict the mechanical behavior of a thick laminated tube. Both analytical formulations are implemented as a computational tool via Matlab code. The results obtained by the computational tool are compared to the finite element analyses, and the stress distribution is considered coherent. Moreover, the engineering computational tool is used to perform failure analysis, using different types of failure criteria, which identifies the damaged ply and the mode of failure.

A stochastic spatially structured epidemic model with diffusive processes

We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.