Predictive models for mutations in mismatch repair genes: implication for genetic counseling in developing countries

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common form of inherited predisposition to colorectal cancer (CRC), accounting for 2-5% of all CRC. LS is an autosomal dominant disease characterized by mutations in the mismatch repair genes mutL homolog 1 (MLH1), mutS homolog 2 (MSH2), postmeiotic segregation increased 1 (PMS1), post-meiotic segregation increased 2 (PMS2) and mutS homolog 6 (MSH6). Mutation risk prediction models can be incorporated into clinical practice, facilitating the decision-making process and identifying individuals for molecular investigation. This is extremely important in countries with limited economic resources. This study aims to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of five predictive models for germline mutations in repair genes in a sample of individuals with suspected Lynch syndrome. Methods: Blood samples from 88 patients were analyzed through sequencing MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 genes. The probability of detecting a mutation was calculated using the PREMM, Barnetson, MMRpro, Wijnen and Myriad models. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the models, receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed. Results: Of the 88 patients included in this analysis, 31 mutations were identified: 16 were found in the MSH2 gene, 15 in the MLH1 gene and no pathogenic mutations were identified in the MSH6 gene. It was observed that the AUC for the PREMM (0.846), Barnetson (0.850), MMRpro (0.821) and Wijnen (0.807) models did not present significant statistical difference. The Myriad model presented lower AUC (0.704) than the four other models evaluated. Considering thresholds of >= 5%, the models sensitivity varied between 1 (Myriad) and 0.87 (Wijnen) and specificity ranged from 0 (Myriad) to 0.38 (Barnetson). Conclusions: The Barnetson, PREMM, MMRpro and Wijnen models present similar AUC. The AUC of the Myriad model is statistically inferior to the four other models.

Secondary production of sandy beach macrofauna: An evaluation of predictive models

During the last three decades, several predictive models have been developed to estimate the somatic production of macroinvertebrates. Although the models have been evaluated for their ability to assess the production of macrobenthos in different marine ecosystems, these approaches have not been applied specifically to sandy beach macrofauna and may not be directly applicable to this transitional environment. Hence, in this study, a broad literature review of sandy beach macrofauna production was conducted and estimates obtained with cohort-based and size-based methods were collected. The performance of nine models in estimating the production of individual populations from the sandy beach environment, evaluated for all taxonomic groups combined and for individual groups separately, was assessed, comparing the production predicted by the models to the estimates obtained from the literature (observed production). Most of the models overestimated population production compared to observed production estimates, whether for all populations combined or more specific taxonomic groups. However, estimates by two models developed by Cusson and Bourget provided best fits to measured production, and thus represent the best alternatives to the cohort-based and size-based methods in this habitat. The consistent performance of one of these Cusson and Bourget models, which was developed for the macrobenthos of sandy substrate habitats (C&B-SS), shows that the performance of a model does not depend on whether it was developed for a specific taxonomic group. Moreover, since some widely used models (e.g., the Robertson model) show very different responses when applied to the macrofauna of different marine environments (e.g., sandy beaches and estuaries), prior evaluation of these models is essential.

Prediction of apparent protein digestibility of ingredients and diets by in vitro pH-stat degree of protein hydrolysis with species-specific enzymes for juvenile Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

Aquafeed production faces global issues related to availability of feed ingredients. Feed manufacturers require greater flexibility in order to develop nutritional and cost-effective formulations that take into account nutrient content and availability of ingredients. The search for appropriate ingredients requires detailed screening of their potential nutritional value and variability at the industrial level. In vitro digestion of feedstuffs by enzymes extracted from the target species has been correlated with apparent protein digestibility (APD) in fish and shrimp species. The present study verified the relationship between APD and in vitro degree of protein hydrolysis (DH) with Litopenaeus vannamei hepatopancreas enzymes in several different ingredients (n = 26): blood meals, casein, corn gluten meal, crab meal, distiller`s dried grains with solubles, feather meal, fish meals, gelatin, krill meals, poultry by-product meal, soybean meals, squid meals and wheat gluten. The relationship between APD and DH was further verified in diets formulated with these ingredients at 30% inclusion into a reference diet. APD was determined in vivo (30.1 +/- 0.5 degrees C, 32.2 +/- 0.4%.) with juvenile L vannamei (9 to 12 g) after placement of test ingredients into a reference diet (35 g kg(-1) CP: 8.03 g kg(-1) lipid; 2.01 kcal g(-1)) with chromic oxide as the inert marker. In vitro DH was assessed in ingredients and diets with standardized hepatopancreas enzymes extracted from pond-reared shrimp. The DH of ingredients was determined under different assay conditions to check for the most suitable in vitro protocol for APD prediction: different batches of enzyme extracts (HPf5 or HPf6), temperatures (25 or 30 degrees C) and enzyme activity (azocasein): crude protein ratios (4 U: 80 mg CP or 4 U: 40 mg CP). DH was not affected by ingredient proximate composition. APD was significantly correlated to DH in regressions considering either ingredients or diets. The relationships between APD and DH of the ingredients could be suitably adjusted to a Rational Function (y = (a + bx)/(1 + cx + dx2), n = 26. Best in vitro APD predictions were obtained at 25 degrees C, 4 U: 80 mg CP both for ingredients (R(2) = 0.86: P = 0.001) and test diets (R(2) = 0.96; P = 0.007). The regression model including all 26 ingredients generated higher prediction residuals (i.e., predicted APD - determined APD) for corn gluten meal, feather meal. poultry by-product meal and krill flour. The remaining test ingredients presented mean prediction residuals of 3.5 points. A model including only ingredients with APD>80% showed higher prediction precision (R(2) = 0.98: P = 0.000004; n = 20) with average residual of 1.8 points. Predictive models including only ingredients from the same origin (e.g., marine-based, R(2) = 0.98; P = 0.033) also displayed low residuals. Since in vitro techniques have been usually validated through regressions against in vivo APD, the DH predictive capacity may depend on the consistency of the in vivo methodology. Regressions between APD and DH suggested a close relationship between peptide bond breakage by hepatopancreas digestive proteases and the apparent nitrogen assimilation in shrimp, and this may be a useful tool to provide rapid nutritional information. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil

Assessment of the suitability of anthropogenic landscapes for wildlife species is crucial for setting priorities for biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to analyse the environmental suitability of a highly fragmented region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's 25 recognized biodiversity hotspots, for forest bird species. Eight forest bird species were selected for the analyses, based on point counts (n = 122) conducted in April-September 2006 and January-March 2009. Six additional variables (landscape diversity, distance from forest and streams, aspect, elevation and slope) were modelled in Maxent for (1) actual and (2) simulated land cover, based on the forest expansion required by existing Brazilian forest legislation. Models were evaluated by bootstrap or jackknife methods and their performance was assessed by AUC, omission error, binomial probability or p value. All predictive models were statistically significant, with high AUC values and low omission errors. A small proportion of the actual landscape (24.41 +/- 6.31%) was suitable for forest bird species. The simulated landscapes lead to an increase of c. 30% in total suitable areas. In average, models predicted a small increase (23.69 +/- 6.95%) in the area of suitable native forest for bird species. Being close to forest increased the environmental suitability of landscapes for all bird species; landscape diversity was also a significant factor for some species. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that species distribution modelling (SDM) successfully predicted bird distribution across a heterogeneous landscape at fine spatial resolution, as all models were biologically relevant and statistically significant. The use of landscape variables as predictors contributed significantly to the results, particularly for species distributions over small extents and at fine scales. This is the first study to evaluate the environmental suitability of the remaining Brazilian Atlantic Forest for bird species in an agricultural landscape, and provides important additional data for regional environmental planning.

Automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to flexible-receptor docking data

Background: This paper addresses the prediction of the free energy of binding of a drug candidate with enzyme InhA associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This problem is found within rational drug design, where interactions between drug candidates and target proteins are verified through molecular docking simulations. In this application, it is important not only to correctly predict the free energy of binding, but also to provide a comprehensible model that could be validated by a domain specialist. Decision-tree induction algorithms have been successfully used in drug-design related applications, specially considering that decision trees are simple to understand, interpret, and validate. There are several decision-tree induction algorithms available for general-use, but each one has a bias that makes it more suitable for a particular data distribution. In this article, we propose and investigate the automatic design of decision-tree induction algorithms tailored to particular drug-enzyme binding data sets. We investigate the performance of our new method for evaluating binding conformations of different drug candidates to InhA, and we analyze our findings with respect to decision tree accuracy, comprehensibility, and biological relevance. Results: The empirical analysis indicates that our method is capable of automatically generating decision-tree induction algorithms that significantly outperform the traditional C4.5 algorithm with respect to both accuracy and comprehensibility. In addition, we provide the biological interpretation of the rules generated by our approach, reinforcing the importance of comprehensible predictive models in this particular bioinformatics application. Conclusions: We conclude that automatically designing a decision-tree algorithm tailored to molecular docking data is a promising alternative for the prediction of the free energy from the binding of a drug candidate with a flexible-receptor.

Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

DengueTools: innovative tools and strategies for the surveillance and control of dengue

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease estimated to cause about 230 million infections worldwide every year, of which 25,000 are fatal. Global incidence has risen rapidly in recent decades with some 3.6 billion people, over half of the world's population, now at risk, mainly in urban centres of the tropics and subtropics. Demographic and societal changes, in particular urbanization, globalization, and increased international travel, are major contributors to the rise in incidence and geographic expansion of dengue infections. Major research gaps continue to hamper the control of dengue. The European Commission launched a call under the 7th Framework Programme with the title of 'Comprehensive control of Dengue fever under changing climatic conditions'. Fourteen partners from several countries in Europe, Asia, and South America formed a consortium named 'DengueTools' to respond to the call to achieve better diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models and improve our understanding of the spread of dengue to previously uninfected regions (including Europe) in the context of globalization and climate change. The consortium comprises 12 work packages to address a set of research questions in three areas: Research area 1: Develop a comprehensive early warning and surveillance system that has predictive capability for epidemic dengue and benefits from novel tools for laboratory diagnosis and vector monitoring. Research area 2: Develop novel strategies to prevent dengue in children. Research area 3: Understand and predict the risk of global spread of dengue, in particular the risk of introduction and establishment in Europe, within the context of parameters of vectorial capacity, global mobility, and climate change. In this paper, we report on the rationale and specific study objectives of 'DengueTools'. DengueTools is funded under the Health theme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community, Grant Agreement Number: 282589 Dengue Tools.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

A fragment-based approach for the in silico prediction of blood-brain barrier permeation

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) permeation is an essential property for drugs that act in the central nervous system (CNS) for the treatment of human diseases, such as epilepsy, depression, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson disease, schizophrenia, among others. In the present work, quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies were conducted for the development and validation of in silico models for the prediction of BBB permeation. The data set used has substantial chemical diversity and a relatively wide distribution of property values. The generated QSPR models showed good statistical parameters and were successfully employed for the prediction of a test set containing 48 compounds. The predictive models presented herein are useful in the identification, selection and design of new drug candidates having improved pharmacokinetic properties.

Modelo adaptativo de conforto para avaliação in loco de espaços urbanos abertos

Espaços urbanos abertos possibilitam menor controle das variáveis ambientais do que espaços fechados, que apresentam maior grau de confinamento. Por outro lado, as possibilidades de adaptação dos usuários nos espaços abertos acabam sendo maiores devido aos seus usos predominantes. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar possíveis meios de adaptação térmica, tais como atividades, vestimentas e aclimatação, para a proposição de ajustes na Temperatura Equivalente de Globo, que é utilizada para avaliação in loco de espaços urbanos abertos. Foram realizados levantamentos de campo com quantificação de variáveis ambientais e aplicação de questionários, e comparação dos resultados de modelos preditivos e diferentes bases empíricas. O estudo considerou diferentes atividades físicas, diferentes conjuntos de vestimenta e diferentes condições de aclimatação. Os resultados indicaram a necessidade de ampliações na base empírica para os dados relativos às atividades e vestimentas. Com relação à aclimatação, considerando a temperatura do ar média horária dos trinta dias anteriores a que estavam expostos os entrevistados, sua verificação demonstrou que, dentro dos limites do estudo, a abordagem adotada de propor ajustes na Temperatura Equivalente de Globo, é adequada,. Os resultados do modelo ajustado com base nos resultados de aclimatação dos entrevistados apresentaram correlação mais alta com as bases empíricas do que os resultados do modelo originalmente proposto.

Theoretical models for the antitrypanosomal activity of thiosemicarbazone derivatives

Thiosemicarbazones are cruzain inhibitors which have been identified as potential antitrypanosomal agents. In this work, several molecular properties were calculated at the density functional theory (DFT)/B3LYP/6-311G* level for a set of 44 thiosemicarbazones. Unsupervised and supervised pattern recognition techniques (hierarchical cluster analysis, principal component analysis, kth-nearest neighbors, and soft independent modeling by class analogy) were used to obtain structureactivity relationship models, which are able to classify unknown compounds according to their activities. The chemometric analyses performed here revealed that 12 descriptors can be considered responsible for the discrimination between high and low activity compounds. Classification models were validated with an external test set, showing that predictive classifications were achieved with the selected variable set. The results obtained here are in good agreement with previous findings from the literature, suggesting that our models can be useful on further investigations on the molecular determinants for the antichagasic activity. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Animal models of prenatal immune challenge and their contribution to the study of schizophrenia: a systematic review

Prenatal immune challenge (PIC) in pregnant rodents produces offspring with abnormalities in behavior, histology, and gene expression that are reminiscent of schizophrenia and autism. Based on this, the goal of this article was to review the main contributions of PIC models, especially the one using the viral-mimetic particle polyriboinosinic-polyribocytidylic acid (poly-I:C), to the understanding of the etiology, biological basis and treatment of schizophrenia. This systematic review consisted of a search of available web databases (PubMed, SciELO, LILACS, PsycINFO, and ISI Web of Knowledge) for original studies published in the last 10 years (May 2001 to October 2011) concerning animal models of PIC, focusing on those using poly-I:C. The results showed that the PIC model with poly-I:C is able to mimic the prodrome and both the positive and negative/cognitive dimensions of schizophrenia, depending on the specific gestation time window of the immune challenge. The model resembles the neurobiology and etiology of schizophrenia and has good predictive value. In conclusion, this model is a robust tool for the identification of novel molecular targets during prenatal life, adolescence and adulthood that might contribute to the development of preventive and/or treatment strategies (targeting specific symptoms, i.e., positive or negative/cognitive) for this devastating mental disorder, also presenting biosafety as compared to viral infection models. One limitation of this model is the incapacity to model the full spectrum of immune responses normally induced by viral exposure.