Classification and regression tree (CART) model to predict pulmonary tuberculosis in hospitalized patients

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health issue worldwide. The lack of specific clinical symptoms to diagnose TB makes the correct decision to admit patients to respiratory isolation a difficult task for the clinician. Isolation of patients without the disease is common and increases health costs. Decision models for the diagnosis of TB in patients attending hospitals can increase the quality of care and decrease costs, without the risk of hospital transmission. We present a predictive model for predicting pulmonary TB in hospitalized patients in a high prevalence area in order to contribute to a more rational use of isolation rooms without increasing the risk of transmission. Methods: Cross sectional study of patients admitted to CFFH from March 2003 to December 2004. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated and validated. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate the performance of model. Validation of the model was performed with a different sample of patients admitted to the same hospital from January to December 2005. Results: We studied 290 patients admitted with clinical suspicion of TB. Diagnosis was confirmed in 26.5% of them. Pulmonary TB was present in 83.7% of the patients with TB (62.3% with positive sputum smear) and HIV/AIDS was present in 56.9% of patients. The validated CART model showed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 60.00%, 76.16%, 33.33%, and 90.55%, respectively. The AUC was 79.70%. Conclusions: The CART model developed for these hospitalized patients with clinical suspicion of TB had fair to good predictive performance for pulmonary TB. The most important variable for prediction of TB diagnosis was chest radiograph results. Prospective validation is still necessary, but our model offer an alternative for decision making in whether to isolate patients with clinical suspicion of TB in tertiary health facilities in countries with limited resources.

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

Four-gene expression model predictive of lymph node metastases in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Background. Previous knowledge of cervical lymph node compromise may be crucial to choose the best treatment strategy in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Here we propose a set four genes, whose mRNA expression in the primary tumor predicts nodal status in OSCC, excluding tongue. Material and methods. We identified differentially expressed genes in OSCC with and without compromised lymph nodes using Differential Display RT-PCR. Known genes were chosen to be validated by means of Northern blotting or real time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR). Thereafter we constructed a Nodal Index (NI) using discriminant analysis in a learning set of 35 patients, which was further validated in a second independent group of 20 patients. Results. Of the 63 differentially expressed known genes identified comparing three lymph node positive (pN+) and three negative (pN0) primary tumors, 23 were analyzed by Northern analysis or RT-PCR in 49 primary tumors. Six genes confirmed as differentially expressed were used to construct a NI, as the best set predictive of lymph nodal status, with the final result including four genes. The NI was able to correctly classify 32 of 35 patients comprising the learning group (88.6%; p = 0.009). Casein kinase 1alpha1 and scavenger receptor class B, member 2 were found to be up regulated in pN + group in contrast to small proline-rich protein 2B and Ras-GTPase activating protein SH3 domain-binding protein 2 which were upregulated in the pN0 group. We validated further our NI in an independent set of 20 primary tumors, 11 of them pN0 and nine pN+ with an accuracy of 80.0% (p = 0.012). Conclusions. The NI was an independent predictor of compromised lymph nodes, taking into the consideration tumor size and histological grade. The genes identified here that integrate our "Nodal Index" model are predictive of lymph node metastasis in OSCC.

Closed-loop stable model predictive control of integrating systems with dead time

Model predictive control (MPC) applications in the process industry usually deal with process systems that show time delays (dead times) between the system inputs and outputs. Also, in many industrial applications of MPC, integrating outputs resulting from liquid level control or recycle streams need to be considered as controlled outputs. Conventional MPC packages can be applied to time-delay systems but stability of the closed loop system will depend on the tuning parameters of the controller and cannot be guaranteed even in the nominal case. In this work, a state space model based on the analytical step response model is extended to the case of integrating time systems with time delays. This model is applied to the development of two versions of a nominally stable MPC, which is designed to the practical scenario in which one has targets for some of the inputs and/or outputs that may be unreachable and zone control (or interval tracking) for the remaining outputs. The controller is tested through simulation of a multivariable industrial reactor system. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of using marker assisted selection on a beef cattle breeding program by model comparison

A data set of a commercial Nellore beef cattle selection program was used to compare breeding models that assumed or not markers effects to estimate the breeding values, when a reduced number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information available. This herd complete data set was composed of 83,404 animals measured for weaning weight (WW), post-weaning gain (PWG), scrotal circumference (SC) and muscle score (MS), corresponding to 116,652 animals in the relationship matrix. Single trait analyses were performed by MTDFREML software to estimate fixed and random effects solutions using this complete data. The additive effects estimated were assumed as the reference breeding values for those animals. The individual observed phenotype of each trait was adjusted for fixed and random effects solutions, except for direct additive effects. The adjusted phenotype composed of the additive and residual parts of observed phenotype was used as dependent variable for models' comparison. Among all measured animals of this herd, only 3160 animals were genotyped for 106 SNP markers. Three models were compared in terms of changes on animals' rank, global fit and predictive ability. Model 1 included only polygenic effects, model 2 included only markers effects and model 3 included both polygenic and markers effects. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods performed by TM software was used to analyze the data for model comparison. Two different priors were adopted for markers effects in models 2 and 3, the first prior assumed was a uniform distribution (U) and, as a second prior, was assumed that markers effects were distributed as normal (N). Higher rank correlation coefficients were observed for models 3_U and 3_N, indicating a greater similarity of these models animals' rank and the rank based on the reference breeding values. Model 3_N presented a better global fit, as demonstrated by its low DIC. The best models in terms of predictive ability were models 1 and 3_N. Differences due prior assumed to markers effects in models 2 and 3 could be attributed to the better ability of normal prior in handle with collinear effects. The models 2_U and 2_N presented the worst performance, indicating that this small set of markers should not be used to genetically evaluate animals with no data, since its predictive ability is restricted. In conclusion, model 3_N presented a slight superiority when a reduce number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information. It could be attributed to the variation retained by markers and polygenic effects assumed together and the normal prior assumed to markers effects, that deals better with the collinearity between markers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive models for mutations in mismatch repair genes: implication for genetic counseling in developing countries

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common form of inherited predisposition to colorectal cancer (CRC), accounting for 2-5% of all CRC. LS is an autosomal dominant disease characterized by mutations in the mismatch repair genes mutL homolog 1 (MLH1), mutS homolog 2 (MSH2), postmeiotic segregation increased 1 (PMS1), post-meiotic segregation increased 2 (PMS2) and mutS homolog 6 (MSH6). Mutation risk prediction models can be incorporated into clinical practice, facilitating the decision-making process and identifying individuals for molecular investigation. This is extremely important in countries with limited economic resources. This study aims to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of five predictive models for germline mutations in repair genes in a sample of individuals with suspected Lynch syndrome. Methods: Blood samples from 88 patients were analyzed through sequencing MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 genes. The probability of detecting a mutation was calculated using the PREMM, Barnetson, MMRpro, Wijnen and Myriad models. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the models, receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed. Results: Of the 88 patients included in this analysis, 31 mutations were identified: 16 were found in the MSH2 gene, 15 in the MLH1 gene and no pathogenic mutations were identified in the MSH6 gene. It was observed that the AUC for the PREMM (0.846), Barnetson (0.850), MMRpro (0.821) and Wijnen (0.807) models did not present significant statistical difference. The Myriad model presented lower AUC (0.704) than the four other models evaluated. Considering thresholds of >= 5%, the models sensitivity varied between 1 (Myriad) and 0.87 (Wijnen) and specificity ranged from 0 (Myriad) to 0.38 (Barnetson). Conclusions: The Barnetson, PREMM, MMRpro and Wijnen models present similar AUC. The AUC of the Myriad model is statistically inferior to the four other models.

Secondary production of sandy beach macrofauna: An evaluation of predictive models

During the last three decades, several predictive models have been developed to estimate the somatic production of macroinvertebrates. Although the models have been evaluated for their ability to assess the production of macrobenthos in different marine ecosystems, these approaches have not been applied specifically to sandy beach macrofauna and may not be directly applicable to this transitional environment. Hence, in this study, a broad literature review of sandy beach macrofauna production was conducted and estimates obtained with cohort-based and size-based methods were collected. The performance of nine models in estimating the production of individual populations from the sandy beach environment, evaluated for all taxonomic groups combined and for individual groups separately, was assessed, comparing the production predicted by the models to the estimates obtained from the literature (observed production). Most of the models overestimated population production compared to observed production estimates, whether for all populations combined or more specific taxonomic groups. However, estimates by two models developed by Cusson and Bourget provided best fits to measured production, and thus represent the best alternatives to the cohort-based and size-based methods in this habitat. The consistent performance of one of these Cusson and Bourget models, which was developed for the macrobenthos of sandy substrate habitats (C&B-SS), shows that the performance of a model does not depend on whether it was developed for a specific taxonomic group. Moreover, since some widely used models (e.g., the Robertson model) show very different responses when applied to the macrofauna of different marine environments (e.g., sandy beaches and estuaries), prior evaluation of these models is essential.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sperm head morphometry in ejaculates of adult marmosets (Callithrix jacchus): a model for studying sperm subpopulations and among-donor variations

In humans and other mammals, sperm morphology has been considered one of the most important predictive parameters of fertility. The objective was to determine the presence and distribution of sperm head morphometric subpopulations in a nonhuman primate model (Callithrix jacchus), using an objective computer analysis system and principal component analysis (PCA) methods to establish the relationship between the subpopulation distribution observed and among-donor variation. The PCA method revealed a stable number of principal components in all donors studied, that represented more than 85% of the cumulative variance in all cases. After cluster analysis, a variable number (from three to seven) sperm morphometric subpopulations were identified with defined sperm dimensions and shapes. There were differences in the distribution of the sperm morphometric subpopulations (P < 0.001) in all ejaculates among the four donors analyzed. In conclusion, in this study, computerized sperm analysis methods combined with PCA cluster analyses were useful to identify, classify, and characterize various head sperm morphometric subpopulations in nonhuman primates, yielding considerable biological information. In addition, because all individuals were kept in the same conditions, differences in the distribution of these subpopulations were not attributed to external or management factors. Finally, the substantial information derived from subpopulation analyses provided new and relevant biological knowledge which may have a practical use for future studies in human and nonhuman primate ejaculates, including identifying individuals more suitable for assisted reproductive technologies. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Haemodialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Predictive risk factors for infection and molecular epidemiology

Abstract Background Patients under haemodialysis are considered at high risk to acquire hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since few data are reported from Brazil, our aim was to assess the frequency and risk factors for HBV infection in haemodialysis patients from 22 Dialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, south of Brazil. Methods This study includes 813 patients, 149 haemodialysis workers and 772 healthy controls matched by sex and age. Serum samples were assayed for HBV markers and viraemia was detected by nested PCR. HBV was genotyped by partial S gene sequencing. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses with stepwise logistic regression analysis were carried out to analyse the relationship between HBV infection and the characteristics of patients and their Dialysis Units. Results Frequency of HBV infection was 10.0%, 2.7% and 2.7% among patients, haemodialysis workers and controls, respectively. Amidst patients, the most frequent HBV genotypes were A (30.6%), D (57.1%) and F (12.2%). Univariate analysis showed association between HBV infection and total time in haemodialysis, type of dialysis equipment, hygiene and sterilization of equipment, number of times reusing the dialysis lines and filters, number of patients per care-worker and current HCV infection. The logistic regression model showed that total time in haemodialysis, number of times of reusing the dialysis lines and filters, and number of patients per worker were significantly related to HBV infection. Conclusions Frequency of HBV infection among haemodialysis patients at Santa Catarina state is very high. The most frequent HBV genotypes were A, D and F. The risk for a patient to become HBV positive increase 1.47 times each month of haemodialysis; 1.96 times if the dialysis unit reuses the lines and filters ≥ 10 times compared with haemodialysis units which reuse < 10 times; 3.42 times if the number of patients per worker is more than five. Sequence similarity among the HBV S gene from isolates of different patients pointed out to nosocomial transmission.