A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.

Predicting Growth of Panicum maximum: An Adaptation of the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions and tools to aid in management and research on these forages would be highly beneficial both in research and the industry. This research was conducted to adapt the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species guineagrass (Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. 'Tanzania') and to describe model adaptation for this species. To develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation, and partitioning during a 17-mo experiment with Tanzania guineagrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Compared with starting parameters for palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. 'Xaraes'], dormancy effects of the perennial forage model had to be minimized, partitioning to storage tissue or root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield was 6576 kg ha(-1), averaged across 11 regrowth cycles of 35 (summer) or 63 d (winter), with a RMSE of 494 kg ha(-1) (Willmott's index of agreement d = 0.985, simulated/observed ratio = 1.014). The model also gave good predictions against an independent data set, with similar RMSE, ratio, and d. The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of guineagrass and can be used to simulate growth.

Multiple Intravenous Administrations of Human Umbilical Cord Blood Cells Benefit in a Mouse Model of ALS

Background: A promising therapeutic strategy for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the use of cell-based therapies that can protect motor neurons and thereby retard disease progression. We recently showed that a single large dose (25x10(6) cells) of mononuclear cells from human umbilical cord blood (MNC hUCB) administered intravenously to pre-symptomatic G93A SOD1 mice is optimal in delaying disease progression and increasing lifespan. However, this single high cell dose is impractical for clinical use. The aim of the present pre-clinical translation study was therefore to evaluate the effects of multiple low dose systemic injections of MNC hUCB cell into G93A SOD1 mice at different disease stages. Methodology/Principal Findings: Mice received weekly intravenous injections of MNC hUCB or media. Symptomatic mice received 10(6) or 2.5x10(6) cells from 13 weeks of age. A third, pre-symptomatic, group received 10(6) cells from 9 weeks of age. Control groups were media-injected G93A and mice carrying the normal hSOD1 gene. Motor function tests and various assays determined cell effects. Administered cell distribution, motor neuron counts, and glial cell densities were analyzed in mouse spinal cords. Results showed that mice receiving 10(6) cells pre-symptomatically or 2.5x10(6) cells symptomatically significantly delayed functional deterioration, increased lifespan and had higher motor neuron counts than media mice. Astrocytes and microglia were significantly reduced in all cell-treated groups. Conclusions/Significance: These results demonstrate that multiple injections of MNC hUCB cells, even beginning at the symptomatic disease stage, could benefit disease outcomes by protecting motor neurons from inflammatory effectors. This multiple cell infusion approach may promote future clinical studies.

Experimental model of tooth movement in mice: A standardized protocol for studying bone remodeling under compression and tensile strains

During orthodontic tooth movement (OTM), alveolar bone is resorbed by osteoclasts in compression sites (CS) and is deposited by osteoblasts in tension sites (TS). The aim of this study was to develop a standardized OTM protocol in mice and to investigate the expression of bone resorption and deposition markers in CS and TS. An orthodontic appliance was placed in C57BL6/J mice. To define the ideal orthodontic force, the molars of the mice were subjected to forces of 0.1 N, 0.25 N, 0.35 N and 0.5 N. The expression of mediators that are involved in bone remodeling at CS and TS was analyzed using a Real-Time PCR. The data revealed that a force of 0.35 N promoted optimal OTM and osteoclast recruitment without root resorption. The levels of TNF-alpha, RANKL, MMP13 and OPG were all altered in CS and TS. Whereas TNF-a and Cathepsin K exhibited elevated levels in CS. RUNX2 and OCN levels were higher in TS. Our results suggest that 0.35 N is the ideal force for OTM in mice and has no side effects. Moreover, the expression of bone remodeling markers differed between the compression and the tension areas, potentially explaining the distinct cellular migration and differentiation patterns in each of these sites. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost effectiveness of OptiMal® rapid diagnostic test for malaria in remote areas of the Amazon Region, Brazil

Abstract Background In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal® and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U.S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal® in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.

Steel fibre reinforced concrete pipes. Part 2: numerical model to simulate the crushing test

This paper is part of an extensive work about the technological development, experimental analysis and numerical modeling of steel fibre reinforced concrete pipes. The first part ("Steel fibre reinforced concrete pipes. Part 1: technological analysis of the mechanical behavior") dealt with the technological development of the experimental campaign, the test procedure and the discussion of the structural behavior obtained for each of the dosages of fibre used. This second part deals with the aspects of numerical modeling. In this respect, a numerical model called MAP, which simulates the behavior of fibre reinforced concrete pipes with medium-low range diameters, is introduced. The bases of the numerical model are also mentioned. Subsequently, the experimental results are contrasted with those produced by the numerical model, obtaining excellent correlations. It was possible to conclude that the numerical model is a useful tool for the design of this type of pipes, which represents an important step forward to establish the structural fibres as reinforcement for concrete pipes. Finally, the design for the optimal amount of fibres for a pipe with a diameter of 400 mm is presented as an illustrating example with strategic interest.