7 resultados para nonparametric demand model
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
Resumo:
This work aimed to apply genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in cash balance management using Miller-Orr model, which consists in a stochastic model that does not define a single ideal point for cash balance, but an oscillation range between a lower bound, an ideal balance and an upper bound. Thus, this paper proposes the application of GA and PSO to minimize the Total Cost of cash maintenance, obtaining the parameter of the lower bound of the Miller-Orr model, using for this the assumptions presented in literature. Computational experiments were applied in the development and validation of the models. The results indicated that both the GA and PSO are applicable in determining the cash level from the lower limit, with best results of PSO model, which had not yet been applied in this type of problem.
Resumo:
A literatura argumenta que o Brasil, embora ainda seja o maior exportador mundial de café verde, tem perdido poder neste mercado, pois a concorrência (rivalidade e probabilidade de entrada) imposta por países como a Colômbia e o Vietnã é forte o suficiente para tornar este mercado bastante competitivo. Assim, este artigo avalia o padrão recente de concorrência do mercado mundial de café verde utilizando uma metodologia econométrica mais usualmente empregada em análise antitruste. Para avaliar o comportamento dos consumidores, foram estimadas as elasticidades-preço da demanda mundial de café verde, por tipo de café, usando o modelo de demanda Logit Multinomial Antitruste. Para avaliar o comportamento de equilíbrio de mercado foram realizados testes de instabilidade de share de quantidade por meio de análise de cointegração em painel. Os resultados apontam para aumento da concorrência à variedade de café brasileiro por parte da demanda e manutenção de sharede quantidades como configuração de equilíbrio de mercado.
Resumo:
A Bayesian nonparametric model for Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for attributes is introduced. The proposed model may accommodate the original single shift setting to the more realistic situation of gradual quality deterioration and allows the incorporation of an expert's opinion on the production process. Based on the number of inspections to be carried out until a defective item is found, the Bayesian operation for the distribution function that represents the increasing sequence of defective fractions during a cycle considering a mixture of Dirichlet processes as prior distribution is performed. Bayes estimates for relevant quantities are also obtained. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Resumo:
Aim To evaluate the residual biovolume of live bacterial cells, the mean biofilm thickness and the substratum coverage found in mixed biofilms treated with different endodontic irrigant solutions. Methodology Twenty-five bovine dentine specimens were infected intraorally using a removable orthodontic device. Five samples were used for each irrigant solution: 2% chlorhexidine, 1% sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl), 10% citric acid, 17% EDTA and distilled water. The solutions were used for 5 min. The samples were stained using the Live/Dead technique and evaluated using a confocal microscope. Differences in the amount of total biovolume (mu m3), number of surviving cells (mu m3), mean biofilm thickness (mu m) and substratum coverage (%) of the treated biofilms were determined using nonparametric statistical tests (P < 0.05). Results Similar values of biovolume total, biovolume of live subpopulations and substratum coverage were found in 2% chlorhexidine, 10% citric acid, 17% EDTA and distilled water-treated biofilms (P > 0.05). The lower values of the studied parameters were found in 1% NaOCl-treated dentine (P < 0.05) with the exception of the mean biofilm height criteria that did not reveal significant differences amongst the irrigant solutions (P > 0.05). Conclusions One per cent sodium hypochlorite was the only irrigant that had a significant effect on biofilm viability and architecture.
Resumo:
Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.
Resumo:
Introduction: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of calcium hydroxide, 2% chlorhexidine gel, and triantibiotic paste (ie, metronidazole, minocycline, and ciprofloxacin) by using an intraorally infected dentin biofilm model. Methods: Forty bovine dentin specimens were infected intraorally using a removable orthodontic device in order to induce the biofilm colonization of the dentin. Then, the samples were treated with the medications for 7 days. Saline solution was used as the control. Two evaluations were performed: immediately after the elimination of the medication and after incubation in brain-heart infusion medium for 24 hours. The Live/Dead technique (Invitrogen, Eugene, OR) and a confocal microscope were used to obtain the percentage of live cells. Nonparametric statistical tests were performed to show differences in the percentage of live cells among the groups (P < .05). Results: Calcium hydroxide and 2% chlorhexidine gel did not show statistical differences in the immediate evaluation. However, after application of the brain-heart infusion medium for 24 hours, 2% gel chlorhexidine showed a statistically lesser percentage of live cells in comparison with calcium hydroxide. The triantibiotic paste significantly showed a lower percentage of live cells in comparison with the 2% chlorhexidine gel and calcium hydroxide groups in the immediate and secondary (after 24 hours) evaluations. Conclusions: The triantibiotic paste was most effective at killing the bacteria in the biofilms on the intraorally infected dentin model in comparison with 2% chlorhexidine gel and calcium hydroxide