Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Surrogate endpoints for prostate cancer-specific mortality after radiotherapy and androgen suppression therapy in men with localised or locally advanced prostate cancer: an analysis of two randomised trials

Background Androgen suppression therapy and radiotherapy are used to treat locally advanced prostate cancer. 3 years of androgen suppression confers a small survival benefit compared with 6 months of therapy in this setting, but is associated with more toxic effects. Early identification of men in whom radiotherapy and 6 months of androgen suppression is insufficient for cure is important. Thus, we assessed whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values can act as an early surrogate for prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Methods We systematically reviewed randomised controlled trials that showed improved overall and prostate cancer-specific survival with radiotherapy and 6 months of androgen suppression compared with radio therapy alone and measured lowest PSA concentrations (PSA nadir) and those immediately after treatment (PSA end). We assessed a cohort of 734 men with localised or locally advanced prostate cancer from two eligible trials in the USA and Australasia that randomly allocated participants between Feb 2, 1996, and Dec 27, 2001. We used Prentice criteria to assess whether reported PSA nadir or PSA end concentrations of more than 0.5 ng/mL were surrogates for PCSM. Findings Men treated with radiotherapy and 6 months of androgen suppression in both trials were significantly less likely to have PSA end and PSA nadir values of more than 0.5 ng/mL than were those treated with radiotherapy alone (p<0.0001). Presence of candidate surrogates (ie, PSA end and PSA nadir values >0.5 ng/mL) alone and when assessed in conjunction with the randomised treatment group increased risk of PCSM in the US trial (PSA nadir p=0.0016; PSA end p=0.017) and Australasian trial (PSA nadir p<0.0001; PSA end p=0.0012). In both trials, the randomised treatment group was no longer associated with PCSM (p >= 0.20) when the candidate surrogates were included in the model. Therefore, both PSA metrics satisfied Prentice criteria for surrogacy. Interpretation After radiotherapy and 6 months of androgen suppression, men with PSA end values exceeding 0.5 ng/mL should be considered for long-term androgen suppression and those with localised or locally advanced prostate cancer with PSA nadir values exceeding 0.5 ng/mL should be considered for inclusion in randomised trials investigating the use of drugs that have extended survival in castration-resistant metastatic prostate cancer.

Infant mortality in Brazil, 1980-2000: A spatial panel data analysis

Background: Infant mortality is an important measure of human development, related to the level of welfare of a society. In order to inform public policy, various studies have tried to identify the factors that influence, at an aggregated level, infant mortality. The objective of this paper is to analyze the regional pattern of infant mortality in Brazil, evaluating the effect of infrastructure, socio-economic, and demographic variables to understand its distribution across the country. Methods: Regressions including socio-economic and living conditions variables are conducted in a structure of panel data. More specifically, a spatial panel data model with fixed effects and a spatial error autocorrelation structure is used to help to solve spatial dependence problems. The use of a spatial modeling approach takes into account the potential presence of spillovers between neighboring spatial units. The spatial units considered are Minimum Comparable Areas, defined to provide a consistent definition across Census years. Data are drawn from the 1980, 1991 and 2000 Census of Brazil, and from data collected by the Ministry of Health (DATASUS). In order to identify the influence of health care infrastructure, variables related to the number of public and private hospitals are included. Results: The results indicate that the panel model with spatial effects provides the best fit to the data. The analysis confirms that the provision of health care infrastructure and social policy measures (e. g. improving education attainment) are linked to reduced rates of infant mortality. An original finding concerns the role of spatial effects in the analysis of IMR. Spillover effects associated with health infrastructure and water and sanitation facilities imply that there are regional benefits beyond the unit of analysis. Conclusions: A spatial modeling approach is important to produce reliable estimates in the analysis of panel IMR data. Substantively, this paper contributes to our understanding of the physical and social factors that influence IMR in the case of a developing country.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Growth parameters and mortality rate of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Jordan & Hubb, 1925) along the Peruvian coast, South Pacific

The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly`s method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.

Do established prognostic factors explain the different mortality rates in ICU septic patients around the world?

Background. The aim of this paper was to clarify if previously established prognostic factors explain the different mortality, rates observed in ICU septic patients around the world. Methods. This is a sub-study from the PROGRESS study, which was an international, prospective, observational registry of ICU patients with severe sepsis. For this study we included 10930 patients from 24 countries that enrolled more than 100 patients in the PROGRESS. The effect of potential prognostic factors on in-hospital mortality was examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The complete set of data was available for 7022 patients, who were considered in the multivariate analysis. Countries were classified according to country, income, development status, and in-hospital mortality terciles. The relationship between countries' characteristics and hospital mortality mortality was evaluated using linear regression. Results. Mean in-hospital mortality was 49.2%. Severe sepsis in-hospital mortality varied widely in different countries, ranging from 30.6% in New Zealand to 80.4% in Algeria. Classification as developed or developing country was not associated with in-hospital mortality (P=0.16), nor were levels of gross national product per capita (P=0.15). Patients in the group of countries with higher in-hospital mortality, had a crude OR for in-hospital death of 2.8 (95% CI 2.5-3.1) in comparison to those in the lower risk group. After adjustments were made for all other independent variables, the OR changed to 2.9 (95% CI 2.5-3.3). Conclusion. Severe sepsis mortality varies widely, in different countries. All known markers of disease severity and prognosis do not fully, explain the international differences in mortality,. Country, income does not explain this disparity, either. Further studies should be developed to verify if other organizational or structural factors account for disparities in patient care and outcomes. (Minerva Anestesiol 2012;78:1215-25)

The impact of atmospheric particulate matter on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to verify the impact of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) on cancer incidence and mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Statistical techniques were used to investigate the relationship between PM10 on cancer incidence and mortality in selected districts. For some types of cancer (skin, lung, thyroid, larynx, and bladder) and some periods, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.60 to 0.80 for incidence. Lung cancer mortality showed more correlations during the overall period. Spatial analysis showed that districts distant from the city center showed higher than expected relative risk, depending on the type of cancer According to the study, urban PM10 can contribute to increased incidence of some cancers and may also contribute to increased cancer mortality. The results highlight the need to adopt measures to reduce atmospheric PM10 levels and the importance of their continuous monitoring.

LIFE TABLE ANALYSIS OF DIAPHORINA CITRI (HEMIPTERA: PSYLLIDAE) INFESTING SWEET ORANGE (CITRUS SINENSIS) IN SAO PAULO

An ecological life table for eggs and nymphs of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) was constructed with data obtained from orange orchards (Citrus sinensis Osbeck) in 2 regions of the State of Sao Paulo, over 4 generations in the period from XI-2006 to V-2007, comprising spring, summer, and fall seasons. Young growing shoots with D. citri eggs present were identified, and live individuals were counted until adult emergence. No predatory arthropods were observed in association with D. citri eggs and nymphs during the study. The mean parasitism of fourth- and fifth-instar nymphs by Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) was 2.3%. The durations of the egg-adult period were similar among the 4 generations, ranging from 18.0 to 24.7 d (at mean temperatures ranging from 21.6 to 26.0 degrees C) and followed the temperature requirement models obtained in the laboratory for D. citri. However, survival from the egg to the adult stage for the same period varied considerably from 1.7 to 21.4%; the highest mortalities were observed in the egg and small nymphal (first- to thirdinstar) stages, which were considered to be key phases for population growth of the pest.

Factors Associated with Dengue Mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1995-2009: An Ecological Study

In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect that environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors have on dengue mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean. To that end, we conducted an observational ecological study, analyzing data collected between 1995 and 2009. Dengue mortality rates were highest in the Caribbean (Spanish-speaking and non-Spanish-speaking). Multivariate analysis through Poisson regression revealed that the following factors were independently associated with dengue mortality: time since identification of endemicity (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 3.2 [for each 10 years]); annual rainfall (aRR = 1.5 [for each 10(3) L/m(2)]); population density (aRR = 2.1 and 3.2 for 20-120 inhabitants/km(2) and > 120 inhabitants/km(2), respectively); Human Development Index > 0.83 (aRR = 0.4); and circulation of the dengue 2 serotype (aRR = 1.7). These results highlight the important role that environmental, demographic, socioeconomic, and biological factors have played in increasing the severity of dengue in recent decades.

Renal Function at Hospital Admission and Mortality Due to Acute Kidney Injury after Myocardial Infarction

Background: The role of an impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at hospital admission in the outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) has been underreported. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of an admission eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) on the incidence and early and late mortality of AMI-associated AKI. Methods: A prospective study of 828 AMI patients was performed. AKI was defined as a serum creatinine increase of >= 50% from the time of admission (RIFLE criteria) in the first 7 days of hospitalization. Patients were divided into subgroups according to their eGFR upon hospital admission (MDRD formula, mL/min/1.73 m(2)) and the development of AKI: eGFR >= 60 without AKI, eGFR<60 without AKI, eGFR >= 60 with AKI and eGFR<60 with AKI. Results: Overall, 14.6% of the patients in this study developed AKI. The admission eGFR had no impact on the incidence of AKI. However, the admission eGFR was associated with the outcome of AMI-associated AKI. The adjusted hazard ratios (AHR, Cox multivariate analysis) for 30-day mortality were 2.00 (95% CI 1.11-3.61) for eGFR, 60 without AKI, 4.76 (95% CI 2.45-9.26) for eGFR >= 60 with AKI and 6.27 (95% CI 3.20-12.29) for eGFR, 60 with AKI. Only an admission eGFR of <60 with AKI was significantly associated with a 30-day to 1-year mortality hazard (AHR 3.05, 95% CI 1.50-6.19). Conclusions: AKI development was associated with an increased early mortality hazard in AMI patients with either preserved or impaired admission eGFR. Only the association of impaired admission eGFR and AKI was associated with an increased hazard for late mortality among these patients.

Suicide rates and income in Sao Paulo and Brazil: a temporal and spatial epidemiologic analysis from 1996 to 2008

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of Sao Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. Methods: Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. Results: Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). Conclusions: Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

The standpoint of professionals on the presence and demands of men on the healthcare services: perspectives for the analysis of the implementation of the Comprehensive Healthcare Policy for Men

In 2009, the Brazilian Comprehensive Healthcare Policy for Men (PNAISH) was launched in Brazil, seeking to reduce morbidity and mortality in this population group. This article strives to analyze the conceptions that health professionals have about the specific demands and behaviors of the male population served by the healthcare services. The data analyzed are part of a larger research project, the objective of which was to evaluate the initial actions of the implementation of PNAISH. Ethnographic observations in 11 health services and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 health professionals. From the perspective of health professionals, the presence of men in the healthcare services is still limited. According to them, it is comprised of two types of clients: workers and the elderly. The male behavior characteristics - haste, objectivity, fear and resistance - and the difficulty faced by health services in receiving this population are the main factors that drive men away from health services. Although the concept of gender is central to PNAISH, it is only triggered by healthcare professionals in order to justify the social standards expected in terms of men's behavior. The attribution of men's behavior to cultural factors ultimately obscures the relations of power that underlie gender relations.

Ankle-Brachial Index: A Simple Way to Predict Mortality among Patients on Hemodialysis - A Prospective Study

Background: Ankle-brachial index (ABI) can access peripheral artery disease and predict mortality in prevalent patients on hemodialysis. However, ABI has not yet been tested in incident patients, who present significant mortality. Typically, ABI is measured by Doppler, which is not always available, limiting its use in most patients. We therefore hypothesized that ABI, evaluated by a simplified method, can predict mortality in an incident hemodialysis population. Methodology/Principal Findings: We studied 119 patients with ESRD who had started hemodialysis three times weekly. ABI was calculated by using two oscillometric blood pressure devices simultaneously. Patients were followed until death or the end of the study. ABI was categorized in two groups normal (0.9-1.3) or abnormal (<0.9 and >1.3). There were 33 deaths during a median follow-up of 12 months (from 3 to 24 months). Age (1 year) (hazard of ratio, 1.026; p = 0.014) and ABI abnormal (hazard ratio, 3.664; p = 0.001) were independently related to mortality in a multiple regression analysis. Conclusions: An easy and inexpensive technique to measure ABI was tested and showed to be significant in predicting mortality. Both low and high ABI were associated to mortality in incident patients on hemodialysis. This technique allows nephrologists to identify high-risk patients and gives the opportunity of early intervention that could alter the natural progression of this population.

Differential Proteomic Analysis of Noncardia Gastric Cancer from Individuals of Northern Brazil

Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. The identification of new cancer biomarkers is necessary to reduce the mortality rates through the development of new screening assays and early diagnosis, as well as new target therapies. In this study, we performed a proteomic analysis of noncardia gastric neoplasias of individuals from Northern Brazil. The proteins were analyzed by two-dimensional electrophoresis and mass spectrometry. For the identification of differentially expressed proteins, we used statistical tests with bootstrapping resampling to control the type I error in the multiple comparison analyses. We identified 111 proteins involved in gastric carcinogenesis. The computational analysis revealed several proteins involved in the energy production processes and reinforced the Warburg effect in gastric cancer. ENO1 and HSPB1 expression were further evaluated. ENO1 was selected due to its role in aerobic glycolysis that may contribute to the Warburg effect. Although we observed two up-regulated spots of ENO1 in the proteomic analysis, the mean expression of ENO1 was reduced in gastric tumors by western blot. However, mean ENO1 expression seems to increase in more invasive tumors. This lack of correlation between proteomic and western blot analyses may be due to the presence of other ENO1 spots that present a slightly reduced expression, but with a high impact in the mean protein expression. In neoplasias, HSPB1 is induced by cellular stress to protect cells against apoptosis. In the present study, HSPB1 presented an elevated protein and mRNA expression in a subset of gastric cancer samples. However, no association was observed between HSPB1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics. Here, we identified several possible biomarkers of gastric cancer in individuals from Northern Brazil. These biomarkers may be useful for the assessment of prognosis and stratification for therapy if validated in larger clinical study sets.