Weibull and generalised exponential overdispersion models with an application to ozone air pollution

We consider the problem of estimating the mean and variance of the time between occurrences of an event of interest (inter-occurrences times) where some forms of dependence between two consecutive time intervals are allowed. Two basic density functions are taken into account. They are the Weibull and the generalised exponential density functions. In order to capture the dependence between two consecutive inter-occurrences times, we assume that either the shape and/or the scale parameters of the two density functions are given by auto-regressive models. The expressions for the mean and variance of the inter-occurrences times are presented. The models are applied to the ozone data from two regions of Mexico City. The estimation of the parameters is performed using a Bayesian point of view via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Mean and Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the CCSM4

This study analyzes important aspects of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from simulations of the fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4): the mean sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress, the Atlantic warm pools, the principal modes of SST variability, and the heat budget in the Benguela region. The main goal was to assess the similarities and differences between the CCSM4 simulations and observations. The results indicate that the tropical Atlantic overall is realistic in CCSM4. However, there are still significant biases in the CCSM4 Atlantic SSTs, with a colder tropical North Atlantic and a hotter tropical South Atlantic, that are related to biases in the wind stress. These are also reflected in the Atlantic warm pools in April and September, with its volume greater than in observations in April and smaller than in observations in September. The variability of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic is well represented in CCSM4. However, in the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic regions, CCSM4 has two distinct modes of variability, in contrast to observed behavior. A model heat budget analysis of the Benguela region indicates that the variability of the upper-ocean temperature is dominated by vertical advection, followed by meridional advection.

Performance of an electronic tongue during monitoring 2-rnethylisoborneol and geosmin in water samples

2-Methylisoborneol (MIB) and geosmin (GSM) are sub products from algae decomposition and, depending on their concentration, can be toxic: otherwise, they give unpleasant taste and odor to water. For water treatment companies it is important to constantly monitor their presence in the distributed water and avoid further costumer complaints. Lower-cost and easy-to-read instrumentation would be very promising in this regard. In this study, we evaluate the potentiality of an electronic tongue (ET) system based on non-specific polymeric sensors and impedance measurements in monitoring MIB and GSM in water samples. Principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the generated data matrix indicated that this ET was capable to perform with remarkable reproducibility the discrimination of these two contaminants in either distilled or tap water, in concentrations as low as 25 ng L-1. Nonetheless, this analysis methodology was rather qualitative and laborious, and the outputs it provided were greatly subjective. Also, data analysis based on PCA severely restricts automation of the measuring system or its use by non-specialized operators. To circumvent these drawbacks, a fuzzy controller was designed to quantitatively perform sample classification while providing outputs in simpler data charts. For instance, the ET along with the referred fuzzy controller performed with a 100% hit rate the quantification of MIB and GSM samples in distilled and tap water. The hit rate could be read directly from the plot. The lower cost of these polymeric sensors allied to the especial features of the fuzzy controller (easiness on programming and numerical outputs) provided initial requirements for developing an automated ET system to monitor odorant species in water production and distribution. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating on-line process control and imperfect corrective maintenance: An economical design

Existing studies of on-line process control are concerned with economic aspects, and the parameters of the processes are optimized with respect to the average cost per item produced. However, an equally important dimension is the adoption of an efficient maintenance policy. In most cases, only the frequency of the corrective adjustment is evaluated because it is assumed that the equipment becomes "as good as new" after corrective maintenance. For this condition to be met, a sophisticated and detailed corrective adjustment system needs to be employed. The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated economic model incorporating the following two dimensions: on-line process control and a corrective maintenance program. Both performances are objects of an average cost per item minimization. Adjustments are based on the location of the measurement of a quality characteristic of interest in a three decision zone. Numerical examples are illustrated in the proposal. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural refinement, growth process, photoluminescence and photocatalytic properties of (Ba1-xPr2x/3)WO4 crystals synthesized by the coprecipitation method

Barium praseodymium tungstate (Ba1-xPr2x/3)WO4 crystals with (x = 0, 0.01, and 0.02) were prepared by the coprecipitation method. These crystals were structurally characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Rietveld refinements, Fourier-transform Raman (FT-Raman) and Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopies. The shape and size of these crystals were observed by field emission scanning electron microcopy (FE-SEM). Their optical properties were investigated by ultraviolet visible (UV-vis) absorption and photoluminescence (PL) measurements. Moreover, we have studied the photocatalytic (PC) activity of crystals for degradation of rhodamine B (RhB) dye. XRD patterns, Rietveld refinements data, FT-Raman and FT-IR spectroscopies indicate that all crystals exhibit a tetragonal structure without deleterious phases. FT-Raman spectra exhibited 13 Raman-active modes in a range from 50 to 1000 cm(-1), while FT-IR spectra have 8 infrared active modes in a range from 200 to 1050 cm(-1). FE-SEM images showed different shapes (bonbon-, spindle-, rice-and flake-like) as well as a reduction in the crystal size with an increase in Pr3+ ions. A possible growth process was proposed for these crystals. UV-vis absorption measurements revealed a decrease in optical band gap values with an increase of Pr3+ into the matrix. An intense green PL emission was noted for (Ba1-xPr2x/3)WO4 crystals (x = 0), while crystals with (x = 0.01 and 0.02) produced a reduction in the wide band PL emission and the narrow band PL emission which is related to f-f transitions from Pr3+ ions. High photocatalytic efficiency was verified for the bonbon-like BaWO4 crystals as a catalyst in the degradation of the RhB dye after 25 min under UV-light. Finally, we discuss possible mechanisms for PL and PC properties of these crystals.

Understanding bias in geographic range size estimates

Aim Estimates of geographic range size derived from natural history museum specimens are probably biased for many species. We aim to determine how bias in these estimates relates to range size. Location We conducted computer simulations based on herbarium specimen records from localities ranging from the southern United States to northern Argentina. Methods We used theory on the sampling distribution of the mean and variance to develop working hypotheses about how range size, defined as area of occupancy (AOO), was related to the inter-specific distribution of: (1) mean collection effort per area across the range of a species (MC); (2) variance in collection effort per area across the range of a species (VC); and (3) proportional bias in AOO estimates (PBias: the difference between the expected value of the estimate of AOO and true AOO, divided by true AOO). We tested predictions from these hypotheses using computer simulations based on a dataset of more than 29,000 herbarium specimen records documenting occurrences of 377 plant species in the tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae). Results The working hypotheses predicted that the mean of the inter-specific distribution of MC, VC and PBias were independent of AOO, but that the respective variance and skewness decreased with increasing AOO. Computer simulations supported all but one prediction: the variance of the inter-specific distribution of VC did not decrease with increasing AOO. Main conclusions Our results suggest that, despite an invariant mean, the dispersion and symmetry of the inter-specific distribution of PBias decreases as AOO increases. As AOO increased, range size was less severely underestimated for a large proportion of simulated species. However, as AOO increased, range size estimates having extremely low bias were less common.

Monitoring internal load parameters during simulated and official basketball matches

Moreira, A, McGuigan, MR, Arruda, AFS, Freitas, CG, and Aoki, MS. Monitoring internal load parameters during simulated and official basketball matches. J Strength Cond Res 26(3): 861-866, 2012-The purpose of this study was to compare the internal load responses (session rating of perceived exertion [RPE] and salivary cortisol) between simulated and official matches (SM and OM). Ten professional basketball players participated in 2 OMs and 2 SMs during the competition season. Subjects provided saliva samples 30 minutes before the prematch warm-up (PRE) and 10 minutes after the end of the match. Session RPE (CR-10 scale) was assessed 30 minutes after each match. The results from the 2-way analysis of variance showed significant differences for post-OM salivary cortisol as compared with pre-OM values (p < 0.05). No changes were observed for cortisol during the SM. Before the OM, a significant difference in salivary cortisol was observed as compared with pre-SM values (p < 0.05). Moreover, the OM session RPE was significantly greater than that of SM. There was a significant correlation between session RPE and cortisol changes (r = 0.75). In summary, the results of this study showed a greater magnitude of cortisol and session RPE responses after OM as compared with that after SM confirming the hypothesis that a real competition generates a greater stress response than a simulated condition does. The anticipatory effect was also observed in the OM. In addition, the results indicate that session RPE seems to be a viable tool in monitoring internal loads, and the results are useful in providing a better understanding of internal loads imposed by basketball training and competitions. The precise monitoring of these responses might help the coaches to plan appropriate loads maximizing recovery and performance.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Materno-infantilism, feminism and maternal health policy in Brazil

In the last days of 2011, President of Brazil Dilma Rousseff issued a provisional measure (or draft law) entitled "National Surveillance and Monitoring Registration System for the Prevention of Maternal Mortality" (MP 557), as part of a new maternal health programme. It was supposed to address the pressing issue of maternal morbidity and mortality in Brazil, but instead it caused an explosive controversy because it used terms such as nascituro (unborn child) and proposed the compulsory registration of every pregnancy. After intense protests by feminist and human rights groups that this law was unconstitutional, violated women's right to privacy and threatened our already limited reproductive rights, the measure was revised in January 2012, omitting "the unborn child" but not the mandatory registration of pregnancy. Unfortunately, neither version of the draft law addresses the two main problems with maternal health in Brazil: the over-medicalisation of childbirth and its adverse effects, and the need for safe, legal abortion. The content of this measure itself reflects the conflictive nature of public policies on reproductive health in Brazil and how they are shaped by close links between different levels of government and political parties, and religious and professional sectors. (C) 2012 Reproductive Health Matters

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985–2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

Background: Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Conclusions: This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Assessment of metabolic control among patients in a capillary glucose self-monitoring program

OBJECTIVE: To assess the metabolic control of diabetes mellitus patients registered in a capillary glucose self-monitoring program at home. METHODS: In this longitudinal retrospective study, 97 subjects at four health institutions in a Brazilian city were followed during 37 months between 2005 and 2008. The health files were analyzed of patients selected to register the evolution of variables related to capillary glucose self-monitoring at home and metabolic control of diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: During the assessment, both mean and monthly percentages of capillary blood glucose measurements at home decreased from 34.1 (65.1%) to 33.6 (64.8%), respectively (p <0.001). Mean HbA1c levels dropped from 9.20% to 7.94% (p<0.001). HDL cholesterol decreased from 51 mg/dl to 47 mg/dl (p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients' metabolic control improved, characterized by a significant reduction in HbA1C.