23 resultados para model selection in binary regression
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo
Resumo:
Model diagnostics is an integral part of model determination and an important part of the model diagnostics is residual analysis. We adapt and implement residuals considered in the literature for the probit, logistic and skew-probit links under binary regression. New latent residuals for the skew-probit link are proposed here. We have detected the presence of outliers using the residuals proposed here for different models in a simulated dataset and a real medical dataset.
Resumo:
Binary stars are frequent in the universe, with about 50% of the known main sequence stars being located at a multiple star system (Abt, 1979). Even though, they are universally thought as second rate sites for the location of exo-planets and the habitable zone, due to the difficulties of detection and high perturbation that could prevent planet formation and long term stability. In this work we show that planets in binary star systems can have regular orbits and remain on the habitable zone. We introduce a stability criterium based on the solution of the restricted three body problem and apply it to describe the short period planar and three-dimentional stability zones of S-type orbits around each star of the Alpha Centauri system. We develop as well a semi-analytical secular model to study the long term dynamics of fictional planets in the habitable zone of those stars and we verify that planets on the habitable zone would be in regular orbits with any eccentricity and with inclination to the binary orbital plane up until 35 degrees. We show as well that the short period oscillations on the semi-major axis is 100 times greater than the Earth's, but at all the time the planet would still be found inside the Habitable zone.
Resumo:
This theoretical proposal applies evolutionary aesthetic, animal signalling and sexual selection to understand our artistic cognition, especially rock art aesthetics. Iconographic motifs, universally found in rock art, indicate which set of pre-artistic aesthetic psychological bias has been co-opted to catch the viewer`s attention. The co-evolutionary process of sexual selection could have shaped the design features of both rock art images and their aesthetic cognition by conferring mutual benefits on both producers, via manipulation, and receivers, via information extraction. We show some strategic techniques identified in rock art and art that indicate the occurrence of this co-evolution between producers and receivers.
Resumo:
The starting point of this article is the question "How to retrieve fingerprints of rhythm in written texts?" We address this problem in the case of Brazilian and European Portuguese. These two dialects of Modern Portuguese share the same lexicon and most of the sentences they produce are superficially identical. Yet they are conjectured, on linguistic grounds, to implement different rhythms. We show that this linguistic question can be formulated as a problem of model selection in the class of variable length Markov chains. To carry on this approach, we compare texts from European and Brazilian Portuguese. These texts are previously encoded according to some basic rhythmic features of the sentences which can be automatically retrieved. This is an entirely new approach from the linguistic point of view. Our statistical contribution is the introduction of the smallest maximizer criterion which is a constant free procedure for model selection. As a by-product, this provides a solution for the problem of optimal choice of the penalty constant when using the BIC to select a variable length Markov chain. Besides proving the consistency of the smallest maximizer criterion when the sample size diverges, we also make a simulation study comparing our approach with both the standard BIC selection and the Peres-Shields order estimation. Applied to the linguistic sample constituted for our case study, the smallest maximizer criterion assigns different context-tree models to the two dialects of Portuguese. The features of the selected models are compatible with current conjectures discussed in the linguistic literature.
Resumo:
This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Abstract Background Using univariate and multivariate variance components linkage analysis methods, we studied possible genotype × age interaction in cardiovascular phenotypes related to the aging process from the Framingham Heart Study. Results We found evidence for genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure. Conclusions There is polygenic genotype × age interaction for fasting glucose and systolic blood pressure and quantitative trait locus × age interaction for a linkage signal for systolic blood pressure phenotypes located on chromosome 17 at 67 cM.
Resumo:
The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.
Resumo:
In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activation schemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer.
Resumo:
Information on the solvation in mixtures of water, W, and the ionic liquids, ILs, 1-allyl-3-R-imidazolium chlorides; R = methyl, 1-butyl, and 1-hexyl, has been obtained from the responses of the following solvatochromic probes: 2,6-dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-R-pyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, R = methyl, MePMBr2; 1-octyl, OcPMBr(2), and the corresponding quinolinium derivative, MeQMBr(2). A model developed for solvation in binary mixtures of W and molecular solvents has been extended to the present mixtures. Our objective is to assess the relevance to solvation of hydrogen-bonding and the hydrophobic character of the IL and the solvatochromic probe. Plots of the medium empirical polarity, E-T(probe) versus its composition revealed non-ideal behavior, attributed to preferential solvation by the IL and, more efficiently, by the IL-W hydrogen-bonded complex. The deviation from linearity increases as a function of increasing number of carbon atoms in the alkyl group of the IL, and is larger than that observed for solvation by W plus molecular solvents (1-propanol and 2-(1-butoxy)ethanol) that are more hydrophobic than the ILs investigated. This enhanced deviation is attributed to the more organized structure of the ILs proper, which persists in their aqueous solutions. MeQMBr(2) is more susceptible to solvent lipophilicity than OcPMBr(2), although the former probe is less lipophilic. This enhanced susceptibility agrees with the important effect of annelation on the contributions of the quinonoid and zwitterionic limiting structures to the ground and excited states of the probe, hence on its response to both medium composition and lipophilicity of the IL.
Resumo:
Dapsone (DAP) is a synthetic sulfone drug with bacteriostatic activity, mainly against Mycobacterium leprae. In this study we have investigated the interactions of DAP with cyclodextrins, 2-hydroxypropyl-beta-cyclodextrin (HP beta CD) and beta-cyclodextrin (beta CD), in the presence and absence of water-soluble polymers, in order to improve its solubility and bioavailability. Solid systems DAP/HP beta CD and DAP/beta CD, in the presence or absence of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP K30) or hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC), were prepared. The binary and ternary systems were evaluated and characterized by SEM, DSC, XRD and NMR analysis as well as phase solubility assays, in order to investigate the interactions between DAP and the excipients in aqueous solution. This study revealed that inclusion complexes of DAP and cyclodextrins (HP beta CD and beta CD) can be produced in order to improve DAP solubility and bioavailability in the presence or absence of polymers (PVP K30 and HPMC). The more stable inclusion complex was obtained with HP beta CD, and consequently HP beta CD was more efficient in improving DAP solubility than beta CD, and the addition of polymers had no influence on DAP solubility or on the stability of the DAP/CDs complexes.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The allometric growth of two groups of Nassarius vibex on beds of the bivalve Mytella charruana on the northern coast of the State of Sao Paulo, was evaluated between September 2006 and February 2007 in the bed on Camaroeiro Beach, and from March 2007 to June 2007 at Cidade Beach. The shells from Camaroeiro were longer and wider and had a smaller shell aperture than those from Cidade; a principal components analysis also confirmed different morphometric patterns between the areas. The allometric growth of the two groups showed great variation in the development of individuals. The increase of shell width and height in relation to shell length did not differ between the two areas. Shell aperture showed a contrasting growth pattern, with individuals from Camaroeiro having smaller apertures. The methodology based on Kullback-Leibler information theory and the multi-model inference showed, for N. vibex, that the classic linear allometric growth was not the most suitable explanation for the observed morphometric relationships. The patterns of relative growth observed in the two groups of N. vibex may be a consequence of different growth and variation rates, which modifies the development of the individuals. Other factors such as food resource availability and environmental parameters, which might also differ between the two areas, should also be considered.
Resumo:
Background and Purpose: Becoming proficient in laparoscopic surgery is dependent on the acquisition of specialized skills that can only be obtained from specific training. This training could be achieved in various ways using inanimate models, animal models, or live patient surgery-each with its own pros and cons. Currently, there are substantial data that support the benefits of animal model training in the initial learning of laparoscopy. Nevertheless, whether these benefits extent themselves to moderately experienced surgeons is uncertain. The purpose of this study was to determine if training using a porcine model results in a quantifiable gain in laparoscopic skills for moderately experienced laparoscopic surgeons. Materials and Methods: Six urologists with some laparoscopic experience were asked to perform a radical nephrectomy weekly for 10 weeks in a porcine model. The procedures were recorded, and surgical performance was assessed by two experienced laparoscopic surgeons using a previously published surgical performance assessment tool. The obtained data were then submitted to statistical analysis. Results: With training, blood loss was reduced approximately 45% when comparing the averages of the first and last surgical procedures (P = 0.006). Depth perception showed an improvement close to 35% (P = 0.041), and dexterity showed an improvement close to 25% (P = 0.011). Total operative time showed trends of improvement, although it was not significant (P = 0.158). Autonomy, efficiency, and tissue handling were the only aspects that did not show any noteworthy change (P = 0.202, P = 0.677, and P = 0.456, respectively). Conclusions: These findings suggest that there are quantifiable gains in laparoscopic skills obtained from training in an animal model. Our results suggest that these benefits also extend to more advanced stages of the learning curve, but it is unclear how far along the learning curve training with animal models provides a clear benefit for the performance of laparoscopic procedures. Future studies are necessary to confirm these findings and better understand the impact of this learning tool on surgical practice.
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian analysis for the right-censored survival data when immune or cured individuals may be present in the population from which the data is taken. In our approach the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution which generalizes the Poisson distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to develop a Bayesian procedure for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a real data set are considered.