Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Analysis of NDVI time series using cross-correlation and forecasting methods for monitoring sugarcane fields in Brazil

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

Investigation of the optical absorption of a magnetic colloid from the thermal to the electronic time-scale regime: measurement of the free-carrier absorption cross-section

The free-carrier absorption cross-section sigma of a magnetic colloid composed of magnetite nanoparticles dispersed in oil is obtained by using the Z-scan technique in different experimental conditions of the laser beam. We show that it is possible to obtain sigma with picosecond pulsed and millisecond chopped beams with pulse frequencies smaller than about 30 Hz. For higher pulse frequencies, the heating of the colloidal system triggers the appearance of the Soret effect. This effect artificially increases the value of sigma calculated from the experimental results. The limits of the different experimental setups are discussed. (C) 2012 Optical Society of America

Constraint-based analysis of gene interactions using restricted boolean networks and time-series data

Abstract Background A popular model for gene regulatory networks is the Boolean network model. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to perform an analysis of gene regulatory interactions using the Boolean network model and time-series data. Actually, the Boolean network is restricted in the sense that only a subset of all possible Boolean functions are considered. We explore some mathematical properties of the restricted Boolean networks in order to avoid the full search approach. The problem is modeled as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) and CSP techniques are used to solve it. Results We applied the proposed algorithm in two data sets. First, we used an artificial dataset obtained from a model for the budding yeast cell cycle. The second data set is derived from experiments performed using HeLa cells. The results show that some interactions can be fully or, at least, partially determined under the Boolean model considered. Conclusions The algorithm proposed can be used as a first step for detection of gene/protein interactions. It is able to infer gene relationships from time-series data of gene expression, and this inference process can be aided by a priori knowledge available.

Discovery and cross-section measurement of neutron-rich isotopes in the element range from neodymium to platinum with the FRS

Using the high-resolution performance of the fragment separator FRS at GSI we have discovered 60 new neutron-rich isotopes in the atomic number range of 60 <= Z <= 78. The new isotopes were unambiguously identified in reactions with a U-238 beam impinging on a Be target at 1 GeV/nucleon. The production cross-section for the new isotopes have been measured down to the pico-barn level and compared with predictions of different model calculations. For elements above hafnium fragmentation is the dominant reaction mechanism which creates the new isotopes, whereas fission plays a dominant role for the production of the new isotopes up to thulium. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of a Species-Specific Spectral Vegetation Index for Leaf Area Index (LAI) Monitoring: Example with MODIS Reflectance Time-Series on Eucalyptus Plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) is a key characteristic of forest ecosystems. Estimations of LAI from satellite images generally rely on spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) or radiative transfer model (RTM) inversions. We have developed a new and precise method suitable for practical application, consisting of building a species-specific SVI that is best-suited to both sensor and vegetation characteristics. Such an SVI requires calibration on a large number of representative vegetation conditions. We developed a two-step approach: (1) estimation of LAI on a subset of satellite data through RTM inversion; and (2) the calibration of a vegetation index on these estimated LAI. We applied this methodology to Eucalyptus plantations which have highly variable LAI in time and space. Previous results showed that an RTM inversion of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) near-infrared and red reflectance allowed good retrieval performance (R-2 = 0.80, RMSE = 0.41), but was computationally difficult. Here, the RTM results were used to calibrate a dedicated vegetation index (called "EucVI") which gave similar LAI retrieval results but in a simpler way. The R-2 of the regression between measured and EucVI-simulated LAI values on a validation dataset was 0.68, and the RMSE was 0.49. The additional use of stand age and day of year in the SVI equation slightly increased the performance of the index (R-2 = 0.77 and RMSE = 0.41). This simple index opens the way to an easily applicable retrieval of Eucalyptus LAI from MODIS data, which could be used in an operational way.

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaita in Amaznia State, Porto Ferreira in So Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22 years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2-8 years, possibly related to El Nio events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5 years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4-8 years.

Measurement of the Cross Section for Electromagnetic Dissociation with Neutron Emission in Pb-Pb Collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV

The first measurement of neutron emission in electromagnetic dissociation of Pb-208 nuclei at the LHC is presented. The measurement is performed using the neutron zero degree calorimeters of the ALICE experiment, which detect neutral particles close to beam rapidity. The measured cross sections of single and mutual electromagnetic dissociation of Pb nuclei at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV with neutron emission are sigma(singleEMD) = 187.4 +/- 0.2(stat)(-11.2)(+13.2) (syst) b and sigma(mutualEMD) = 5. 7 +/- 0.1(stat) +/- 0.4(syst) b, respectively. The experimental results are compared to the predictions from a relativistic electromagnetic dissociation model. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.252302

Measurement of the proton-air cross section at root s=57 TeV with the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a measurement of the proton-air cross section for particle production at the center-of-mass energy per nucleon of 57 TeV. This is derived from the distribution of the depths of shower maxima observed with the Pierre Auger Observatory: systematic uncertainties are studied in detail. Analyzing the tail of the distribution of the shower maxima, a proton-air cross section of [505 +/- 22(stat)(-36)(+28)(syst)] mb is found.

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008: a time-series ecological study

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with Sao Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata. IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In Sao Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in Sao Paulo.

Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

Comparing non-stationary and irregularly spaced time series

In this paper, we present approximate distributions for the ratio of the cumulative wavelet periodograms considering stationary and non-stationary time series generated from independent Gaussian processes. We also adapt an existing procedure to use this statistic and its approximate distribution in order to test if two regularly or irregularly spaced time series are realizations of the same generating process. Simulation studies show good size and power properties for the test statistic. An application with financial microdata illustrates the test usefulness. We conclude advocating the use of these approximate distributions instead of the ones obtained through randomizations, mainly in the case of irregular time series. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

K-41(n, gamma)K-42 thermal and resonance integral cross section measurements

We measured the K-41 thermal neutron absorption and resonance integral cross sections after the irradiation of KNO3 samples near the core of the IEA-R1 IPEN pool-type research reactor. Bare and cadmium-covered targets were irradiated in pairs with Au-Al alloy flux-monitors. The residual activities were measured by gamma-ray spectroscopy with a HPGe detector, with special care to avoid the K-42 decay beta(-) emission effects on the spectra. The gamma-ray self-absorption was corrected with the help of MCNP simulations. We applied the Westcott formalism in the average neutron flux determination and calculated the depression coefficients for thermal and epithermal neutrons due to the sample thickness with analytical approximations. We obtained 1.57(4) and 1.02(4) b, for thermal and resonance integral cross sections, respectively, with correlation coefficient equal to 0.39.

Transverse single-spin asymmetry and cross section for pi(0) and eta mesons at large Feynman x in p(up arrow) + p collisions at root s=200 GeV

Measurements of the differential cross section and the transverse single-spin asymmetry, A(N), vs x(F) for pi(0) and eta mesons are reported for 0.4 < x(F) < 0.75 at an average pseudorapidity of 3.68. A data sample of approximately 6.3 pb(-1) was analyzed, which was recorded during p(up arrow) + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The average transverse beam polarization was 56%. The cross section for pi(0), including the previously unmeasured region of x(F) > 0.55, is consistent with a perturbative QCD prediction, and the eta/pi(0) cross-section ratio agrees with existing midrapidity measurements. For 0.55 < x(F) < 0.75, the average A(N) for eta is 0.210 +/- 0.056, and that for pi(0) is 0.081 +/- 0.016. The probability that these two asymmetries are equal is similar to 3%.