Bayesian Analysis for Errors in Variables with Changepoint Models

Changepoint regression models have originally been developed in connection with applications in quality control, where a change from the in-control to the out-of-control state has to be detected based on the avaliable random observations. Up to now various changepoint models have been suggested for differents applications like reliability, econometrics or medicine. In many practical situations the covariate cannot be measured precisely and an alternative model are the errors in variable regression models. In this paper we study the regression model with errors in variables with changepoint from a Bayesian approach. From the simulation study we found that the proposed procedure produces estimates suitable for the changepoint and all other model parameters.

Electroluminescence of phenylene-vinylene random copolymers with different conjugation lengths

PPV random derivates were synthesized and characterized. Polymer light emitting diodes (PLEDs) were assembled using the random copolymers as emissive layer and showed EL in the blue-green region in function of the method of preparation. The increase in the average conjugation degree in the polymer chain led to the reduction of the turn-on voltage of the device. The addition of Alq3 as ETL increased tenfold the luminescence efficiency. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FOLLOW-UP OF TREATED OSTEOSARCOMA PATIENT

Objective: To evaluate the value of post-treatment follow-up in osteosarcoma patients. Methods: Data were collected through a clinical record, with socio-demographic and clinical data, and information relating to the medical appointment. Descriptive analysis of the data was carried out. The Chi-squared test was used to associate the independent variables with attendance at scheduled follow-up appointments. Results: We found a recurrence in 59.6% of cases, of which 58% were lung related; 44% presented clinical complaints and arrived on the scheduled date of the appointment. There was no statistically significant association between the demographic characteristics and early attendance of follow-up visits. 81.3% of the cases who came for the appointment earlier than originally scheduled presented complaints compared to those who did not (p=0.005). Of the cases who presented recurrence, 12.9% attended an appointment late and those who did not present recurrence, 47.6% were late for the appointment (p=0.006). Conclusion: It is seen that the patients who came for an earlier appointment presented more complaints and were associated with the positive result of the exams carried out. The patients who had recurrence and came for an earlier appointment did not present a statistically significant difference in recurrence-free survival. It was observed that distance was not a predominant factor in late attendance at appointments. Level of Evidence II, Retrospective Study.

Association analysis of clinical aspects and vitamin D receptor gene polymorphism with external apical root resorption in orthodontic patients

Introduction: Vitamin D is responsible for the regulation of certain genes at the transcription level, via interaction with the vitamin D receptor, and influences host immune responses and aspects of bone development, growth, and homeostasis. Our aim was to investigate the association of TaqI vitamin D receptor gene polymorphism with external apical root resorption during orthodontic treatment. Methods: Our subjects were 377 patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion, divided into 3 groups: (1) 160 with external apical root resorption <= 1.43 mm, (2) 179 with external apical root resorption >1.43 mm), and (3) 38 untreated subjects. External apical root resorption of the maxillary incisors was evaluated on periapical radiographs taken before and after 6 months of treatment. After DNA collection and purification, vitamin D receptor TaqI polymorphism analysis was performed by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to verify the association of clinical and genetic variables with external apical root resorption (P <0.05). Results: There was a higher proportion of external apical root resorption in orthodontically treated patients compared with the untreated subjects. In patients orthodontically treated, age higher than 14 years old, initial size of the maxillary incisor root superior to 30 mm, and premolar extraction were associated with increased external apical root resorption. Genotypes containing the C allele were weakly associated with protection against external apical root resorption (CC + CT x TT [odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.07-1.23; P = 0.091]) when treated orthodontic patients were compared to untreated individuals. Conclusions: Clinical factors and vitamin D receptor TaqI polymorphism were associated with external apical root resorption in orthodontic patients. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2012; 142: 339-47)

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfers from a freestanding birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil: A case control study

Objectives: to identify factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfer from a freestanding birth centre to hospital. Design: case-control study with retrospective data collection. Participants and settings: cases included all 111 women transferred from a freestanding birth centre in Sao Paulo to the referral hospital, from March 2002 to December 2009. The controls were 456 women who gave birth in the birth centre during the same period who were not transferred, randomly selected with four controls for each case. Methods: data were obtained from maternal records. Factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfers were initially analysed using a chi(2) test of association. Variables with p < 0.20 were then included in multivariate analyses. A multiple logistic regression model was built using stepwise forward selection; variables which reached statistical significance at p < 0.05 were considered to be independently associated with maternal transfer. Findings: during the study data collection period, 111(4%) of 2,736 women admitted to the centre were transferred intrapartum. Variables identified as independently associated factors for intrapartum transfer included nulliparity (OR 5.1, 95% CI 2.7-9.8), maternal age >= 35 years (OR 5.4, 95% CI 2.1-13.4), not having a partner (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.5-5.3), cervical dilation <= 3 cm on admission to the birth centre (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.2) and between 5 and 12 antenatal appointments at the birth centre (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.9-7.5). In contrast, a low correlation between fundal height and pregnancy gestation (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.6) appeared to be protective against transfer. Conclusions and implications for practice: identifying factors associated with maternal intrapartum transfer could support decision making by women considering options for place of birth, and support the content of appropriate information about criteria for admission to a birth centre. Findings add to the evidence base to support identification of women in early labour who may experience later complications and could support timely implementation of appropriate interventions associated with reducing transfer rates. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spin-glass behaviour on random lattices

The ground-state phase diagram of an Ising spin-glass model on a random graph with an arbitrary fraction w of ferromagnetic interactions is analysed in the presence of an external field. Using the replica method, and performing an analysis of stability of the replica-symmetric solution, it is shown that w = 1/2, corresponding to an unbiased spin glass, is a singular point in the phase diagram, separating a region with a spin-glass phase (w < 1/2) from a region with spin-glass, ferromagnetic, mixed and paramagnetic phases (w > 1/2).

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection in Inland Brazil: An analysis of pooled epidemiological sectional studies

In order to assess the contribution of different parenteral routes as risk exposure to the hepatitis C virus (HCV), samples from nine surveys or cross-sectional studies conducted in two Brazilian inland regions were pooled, including a total of 3,910 subjects. Heterogeneity among the study results for different risk factors was tested and the results were shown to be homogeneous. Anti-HCV antibodies were observed in 241 individuals, of which 146 (3.7%, 95% CI?=?3.24.4) had HCV exposure confirmed by immunoblot analysis or PCR test. After adjustment for relevant variables, a correlation between confirmed HCV exposure and injection drug use, tattooing, and advance age was observed. In a second logistic model that included exposures not searched in all nine studies, a smaller sample was analyzed, revealing an independent HCV association with past history of surgery and males who have sex with other males, in addition to repeated injection drug use. Overall, these analyses corroborate the finding that injection drug use is the main risk factor for HCV exposure and spread, in addition to other parenteral routes. J. Med. Virol. 84:756762, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling random corrosion processes via polynomial chaos expansion

Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a flexible tool to represent different types of random variables/processes. However, applications to real, experimental data are still limited. In this article, PCE is used to represent the random time-evolution of metal corrosion growth in marine environments. The PCE coefficients are determined in order to represent data of 45 corrosion coupons tested by Jeffrey and Melchers (2001) at Taylors Beach, Australia. Accuracy of the representation and possibilities for model extrapolation are considered in the study. Results show that reasonably accurate smooth representations of the corrosion process can be obtained. The representation is not better because a smooth model is used to represent non-smooth corrosion data. Random corrosion leads to time-variant reliability problems, due to resistance degradation over time. Time variant reliability problems are not trivial to solve, especially under random process loading. Two example problems are solved herein, showing how the developed PCE representations can be employed in reliability analysis of structures subject to marine corrosion. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to solve the resulting time-variant reliability problems. However, an accurate and more computationally efficient solution is also presented.

Longitudinal reference ranges for fetal ultrasound biometry in twin pregnancies

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to establish longitudinal reference ranges for fetal ultrasound biometry measurements and growth parameters in twin pregnancies. METHOD: A total of 200 uncomplicated twin pregnancies before 21 weeks of gestation were recruited for this prospective, longitudinal study. Women who abandoned follow-up, pregnancies with unknown outcomes or pregnancies with complications were excluded. Ultrasound scans were performed every three weeks, and biparietal and occipitofrontal diameters, head and abdominal circumferences, and femur diaphysis length measurements were obtained for each fetus at each visit. Estimated fetal weight, biparietal/occipitofrontal diameter, head circumference/abdominal circumference, and femur diaphysis length/abdominal circumference ratios were also calculated. Multilevel regression analysis was performed on normalized data. RESULTS: A total of 807 ultrasound examinations were performed in 125 twin pregnancies between 14 and 38 weeks of gestation (6.5 +/- 1.4 scans/pregnancy). Regression analysis demonstrated significant correlations for all variables with gestational age, namely log of the biparietal diameter (r = 0.98), log of the occipitofrontal diameter (r = 0.98), log of the head circumference (r = 0.99), log of the abdominal circumference (r = 0.98), square root of the femur length (r = 0.99), log of the estimated fetal weight (r = 0.99), biparietal/occipitofrontal ratio (r = -0.11), head/abdomen circumference ratio (r = -0.56), and log of the femur length/abdominal circumference ratio (r = 0.61). Values corresponding to the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for estimated fetal weight at 28, 32, and 36 weeks, respectively, were as follows: 937, 1,096, 1,284 g; 1,462, 1,720, 2,025 g; and 2,020, 2,399, 2,849 g. CONCLUSION: In twin pregnancies, fetal ultrasound biometry measurements and growth parameters show a significant correlation with gestational age.

Long-Term Follow-Up of Patients after Acute Kidney Injury: Patterns of Renal Functional Recovery

Background and Objectives: Patients who survive acute kidney injury (AKI), especially those with partial renal recovery, present a higher long-term mortality risk. However, there is no consensus on the best time to assess renal function after an episode of acute kidney injury or agreement on the definition of renal recovery. In addition, only limited data regarding predictors of recovery are available. Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements: From 1984 to 2009, 84 adult survivors of acute kidney injury were followed by the same nephrologist (RCRMA) for a median time of 4.1 years. Patients were seen at least once each year after discharge until end stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. In each consultation serum creatinine was measured and glomerular filtration rate estimated. Renal recovery was defined as a glomerular filtration rate value >= 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. A multiple logistic regression was performed to evaluate factors independently associated with renal recovery. Results: The median length of follow-up was 50 months (30-90 months). All patients had stabilized their glomerular filtration rates by 18 months and 83% of them stabilized earlier: up to 12 months. Renal recovery occurred in 16 patients (19%) at discharge and in 54 (64%) by 18 months. Six patients died and four patients progressed to ESRD during the follow up period. Age (OR 1.09, p < 0.0001) and serum creatinine at hospital discharge (OR 2.48, p = 0.007) were independent factors associated with non renal recovery. The acute kidney injury severity, evaluated by peak serum creatinine and need for dialysis, was not associated with non renal recovery. Conclusions: Renal recovery must be evaluated no earlier than one year after an acute kidney injury episode. Nephrology referral should be considered mainly for older patients and those with elevated serum creatinine at hospital discharge.

Mapping an uncertainty zone between interpolated types of a categorical variable

Categorical data cannot be interpolated directly because they are outcomes of discrete random variables. Thus, types of categorical variables are transformed into indicator functions that can be handled by interpolation methods. Interpolated indicator values are then backtransformed to the original types of categorical variables. However, aspects such as variability and uncertainty of interpolated values of categorical data have never been considered. In this paper we show that the interpolation variance can be used to map an uncertainty zone around boundaries between types of categorical variables. Moreover, it is shown that the interpolation variance is a component of the total variance of the categorical variables, as measured by the coefficient of unalikeability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heritability Estimate and Genetic Correlations of Reproductive Features in Nellore Bulls, Offspring of Super Precocious, Precocious and Normal Cows Under Extensive Farming Conditions

The present work aimed to estimate heritability and genetic correlations of reproductive features of Nellore bulls, offspring of mothers classified as superprecocious (M1), precocious (M2) and normal (M3). Twenty one thousand hundred and eighty-six animals with average age of 21.29 months were used, evaluated through the breeding soundness evaluation from 1999 to 2008. The breeding soundness features included physical semen evaluation (progressive sperm motility and sperm vigour), semen morphology (major, minor and total sperm defects), scrotal circumference (SC), testicular volume (TV) and SC at 18 months of age (SC18). The components of variance, heritability and genetic correlations for and between the features were estimated simultaneously by restricted maximum likelihood, with the use of the vce software system vs 6. The heritability estimates were high for SC18, SC and TV (0.43, 0.63 and 0.54; 0.45, 0.45 and 0.44; 0.42, 0.45 and 0.41, respectively for the categories of mothers M1, M2 and M3) and low for physical and morphological semen aspects. The genetic correlations between SC18 and SC were high, as well as between these variables with TV. High and positive genetic correlations were recorded among SC18, SC and TV with the physical aspects of the semen, although no favourable association was verified with the morphological aspects, for the three categories of mothers. It can be concluded that the mothers sexual precocity did not affect the heritability of their offspring reproduction features.

Protein diets promote the maturation of oocytes and spawning of Piaractus mesopotamicus kept in cages

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of balanced diets on the maturation of oocytes and the reproductive performance of P. mesopotamicus in cages. A completely random design with 224 fish in 16 cages measuring 5 m(3) was employed for this purpose. The treatments consisted of diets containing 18, 24, 30, and 36% crude protein (CP) provided ad libitum. The external and internal morphological characteristics of the specimens were examined, as well as: the position of the germinal vesicle, the distribution of oocyte diameters, the fertilization and hatching rates, the number of oocytes released, the total number of oocytes, the remaining weight and total weight of the ovaries, the gonadosomatic index, the condition factor (K), and the histology of the oocytes and ovaries post-spawning and during ovarian regression. The diameters of the oocytes collected before the first hormonal application displayed a unimodal distribution for the lowest protein content and a polymodal distribution for the other treatments. A similar situation was seen during spawning. The lowest fertilization and hatching rates were found as a consequence of the treatment with 30% CP (P < 0.05). The greatest hatching rate occurred in the females fed 18% CP. The greatest total oocyte weight was found in the specimens that received between 30 and 36% CP. The lowest K index was found in the females fed 36% CP. In conclusion, a diet containing 18% CP satisfies the reproductive requirements of females adapted to this system.

The influence of anthropometric factors on postural balance: the relationship between body composition and posturographic measurements in young adults

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of anthropometric characteristics and gender on postural balance in adults. One hundred individuals were examined (50 males, 50 females; age range 20-40 years). METHODS: The following body composition measurements were collected (using bone densitometry measurements): fat percentage (% fat), tissue (g), fat (g), lean mass (g), bone mineral content (g), and bone mineral density (g/cm(2)). In addition, the following anthropometric measurements were collected: body mass (kg), height (cm), length of the trunk-cephalic region (cm), length of the lower limbs (cm) and length of the upper limbs (cm). The following indices were calculated: body mass index (kg/m(2)), waist-hip ratio and the support base (cm 2). Also, a postural balance test was performed using posturography variables with open and closed eyes. RESULTS: The analysis revealed poor correlations between postural balance and the anthropometric variables. A multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that the whole group (female and male) height explained 12% of the medial-lateral displacement, 10% of the speed of oscillation, and 11% of the displacement area. The length of the trunk-cephalic length explained 6% of the displacement in the anteroposterior direction. With eyes closed, the support base and height explained 18% of the medial displacement, and the lateral height explained 10% of the displacement speed and 5% of the scroll area. CONCLUSION: Measured using posturography, the postural balance was only slightly influenced by the anthropometric variables, both with open and closed eyes. Height was the anthropometric variable that most influenced postural balance, both in the whole group and separately for each gender. Postural balance was more influenced by anthropometric factors in males than females.