A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.

Lipid levels in the second year of life among HIV-infected and HIV-exposed uninfected Latin American children

Background: Dyslipidemia is observed among older children and adults with HIV. We examined nonfasting cholesterol and triglycerides in two groups of 12-23-month-old Latin American children - HIV-infected vs. HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU). Methods: HIV-infected and HEU children in Latin America and Jamaica were enrolled in an observational cohort. Eligibility for this analysis required having cholesterol and triglyceride results available during the second year of life. Results: HIV-infected (n = 83) children were slightly older at the time of lipid testing than the HEU (n 681). Forty percent of the HIV-infected children were on protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART); 41% were not on ART. There was no statistically significant difference in mean cholesterol concentrations (mg/dl) by HIV status; however, the HIV-infected children had higher mean triglyceride concentrations. The prevalence of high cholesterol (>200 mg/dl) and high triglycerides (>110 mg/dl) was higher among the HIV-infected vs. HEU. Among the HIV-infected children, mean cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations varied by ART. Children receiving no ART had a significantly lower mean cholesterol concentration. Those receiving protease inhibitor-containing ART had a significantly higher mean triglyceride concentration compared to the other two antiretroviral regimen groups. Conclusion: A greater proportion of HIV-infected children at 12-23 months have hyperlipidemia when compared to HEU children, with the highest triglyceride concentrations observed among those receiving protease inhibitor-containing ART, and the lowest cholesterol levels among those not receiving ART. Implications of these findings will require continued follow-up of HIV-infected children who initiate therapy early in life. (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins