A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Lethal effects of abamectin on the aquatic organisms Daphnia similis, Chironomus xanthus and Danio rerio

Abamectin is used as an acaricide and insecticide for fruits, vegetables and ornamental plants, as well as a parasiticide for animals. One of the major problems of applying pesticides to crops is the likelihood of contaminating aquatic ecosystems by drift or runoff. Therefore, toxicity tests in the laboratory are important tools to predict the effects of chemical substances in aquatic ecosystems. The aim of this study was to assess the potential hazards of abamectin to the freshwater biota and consequently the possible losses of ecological services in contaminated water bodies. For this purpose, we identified the toxicity of abamectin on daphnids, insects and fish. Abamectin was highly toxic, with an EC50 48 h for Daphnia similis of 5.1 ng L-1, LC50 96 h for Chironomus xanthus of 2.67 mu g L-1 and LC50 48 h for Danio rerio of 33 mu g L-1. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy and outcomes after coronary stenting with the genous (TM) bio-engineered R stent (TM) in patients from the e-healing registry

Objective: We investigated the relation between duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) and clinical outcomes up to 12 months after Genous (TM) endothelial progenitor cell capturing R stent (TM) placement in patients from the e-HEALING registry. Background: Cessation of (DAPT) has been shown to be associated with the occurrence of stent thrombosis (ST). After Genous placement, 1 month of DAPT is recommended. Methods: Patients were analyzed according to continuation or discontinuation of DAPT at a 30-day and 6-month landmark, excluding patients with events before the landmark. Each landmark was a new baseline, and outcomes were followed up to 12 months after stenting. The main outcome for our current analysis was target vessel failure (TVF), defined as target vessel-related cardiac death or myocardial infarction and target vessel revascularization. Secondary outcomes included ST. (Un)adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for TVF were calculated with Cox regression. Results: No difference was observed in the incidence of TVF [HR: 1.03; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.651.65, P = 0.89] in patients continuing DAPT (n = 4,249) at 30 days versus patients stopped (n = 309), and HR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.551.23, P = 0.34) in patients continuing DAPT (n = 2,654) at 6 months versus patients stopped [n = 1,408] DAPT). Furthermore, no differences were observed in ST. Even after addition of identified independent predictors for TVF, adjusted TVF hazards were comparable. Conclusions: In a post-hoc analysis of e-HEALING, duration of DAPT was not associated with the occurrence of the outcomes TVF or ST. The Genous stent may be an attractive treatment especially in patients at increased risk for (temporary) cessation of DAPT or bleeding. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Overall Survival Improvement in Patients with Lung Cancer and Bone Metastases Treated with Denosumab Versus Zoledronic Acid Subgroup Analysis from a Randomized Phase 3 Study

Introduction: Denosumab, a fully human anti-RANKL monoclonal antibody, reduces the incidence of skeletal-related events in patients with bone metastases from solid tumors. We present survival data for the subset of patients with lung cancer, participating in the phase 3 trial of denosumab versus zoledronic acid (ZA) in the treatment of bone metastases from solid tumors (except breast or prostate) or multiple myeloma. Methods: Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or intravenous ZA 4 mg. An exploratory analysis, using Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards models, was performed for overall survival among patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and SCLC. Results: Denosumab was associated with improved median overall survival versus ZA in 811 patients with any lung cancer (8.9 versus 7.7 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.80) and in 702 patients with NSCLC (9.5 versus 8.0 months; HR 0.78) (p = 0.01, each comparison). Further analysis of NSCLC by histological type showed a median survival of 8.6 months for denosumab versus 6.4 months for ZA in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.68; p = 0.035). Incidence of overall adverse events was balanced between treatment groups; serious adverse events occurred in 66.0% of denosumab-treated patients and 72.9% of ZA-treated patients. Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis of the jaw was similar between groups (0.7% denosumab versus 0.8% ZA). Hypocalcemia rates were 8.6% with denosumab and 3.8% with ZA. Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis, denosumab was associated with improved overall survival compared with ZA, in patients with metastatic lung cancer.

Vascular dysfunction by myofibroblast activation in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and prognostic significance

In this study, we demonstrated the importance of telomerase protein expression and determined the relationships among telomerase, endothelin-1 (ET-1) and myofibroblasts during early and late remodeling of parenchymal and vascular areas in usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) using 27 surgical lung biopsies from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Telomerase+, myofibroblasts alpha-SMA+, smooth muscle cells caldesmon+, endothelium ET-1+ cellularity, and fibrosis severity were evaluated in 30 fields covering normal lung parenchyma, minimal fibrosis (fibroblastic foci), severe ( mural) fibrosis, and vascular areas of UIP by the point-counting technique and a semiquantitative score. The impact of these markers was determined in pulmonary functional tests and follow-up until death from IPF. Telomerase and ET-1 expression was significantly increased in normal and vascular areas compared to areas of fibroblast foci. Telomerase and ET-1 expression was inversely correlated with minimal fibrosis in areas of fibroblast foci and directly associated with severe fibrosis in vascular areas. Telomerase activity in minimal fibrosis areas was directly associated with diffusing capacity of the lung for oxygen/alveolar volume and ET-1 expression and indirectly associated with diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide and severe fibrosis in vascular areas. Cox proportional hazards regression revealed a low risk of death for females with minimal fibrosis displaying high telomerase and ET-1 expression in normal areas. Vascular dysfunction by telomerase/ET-1 expression was found earlier than vascular remodeling by myofibroblast activation in UIP with impact on IPF evolution, suggesting that strategies aimed at preventing the effect of these mediators may have a greater impact on patient outcome.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Biomonitoring of Microcystin and Aflatoxin Co-Occurrence in Aquaculture Using Immunohistochemistry and Genotoxicity Assays

This work investigated the effects of co-occurring aflatoxin B-1 (AFB(1)) and microcystin (MC) in aquaculture, using immunohistochemistry and genotoxicity methods. Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were exposed to AFB(1) by intraperitoneal and MC (cell extract of Microcystis aeruginosa) by intraperitoneal and immersion routes. The interaction of MC-AFB(1) was evaluated co-exposing the intraperitoneal doses. Blood samples were collected after 8, 24, and 48h to analyze the micronucleus frequency and comet score. The interaction of MC-AFB(1) showed a synergic mutagenic response by higher micronucleus frequency of co-exposed group. A slight genotoxic synergism was also observed in the comet score. Immunohistochemistry detected MC in al lthe fish liver tissues exposed to MC by intraperitoneal route, and only the immersed group with the highest dose of MC showed a positive response. Although MC was non-detectable in the edible muscle, the combination of immunohistochemistry with genotoxicity assay was an attractive biomonitoring tool in aquaculture, where the animals were frequently exposed to co-occurring synergic hazards.

Natriuretic Peptides and Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Severe Aortic Stenosis

Background and aim of the study: The natriuretic peptides, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and its N-terminal prohormone (NT-proBNP), can be used as diagnostic and prognostic markers for aortic stenosis (AS). However, the association between BNP, NT-proBNP, and long-term clinical outcomes in patients with severe AS remains uncertain. Methods: A total of 64 patients with severe AS was prospectively enrolled into the study, and underwent clinical and echocardiographic assessments at baseline. Blood samples were drawn for plasma BNP and NT-proBNP analyses. The primary outcome was death from any cause, through a six-year follow up period. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to examine the association between natriuretic peptides and long-term mortality, adjusting for important clinical factors. Results: During a mean period of 1,520 681 days, 51 patients (80%) were submitted to aortic valve replacement, and 13 patients (20%) were medically managed without surgical interventions. Mortality rates were 13.7% in the surgical group and 62% in the medically managed group (p <0.001). Patients with higher plasma BNP (>135 pg/ml) and NT-proBNP (>1,150 pg/ml) levels at baseline had a greater risk of long-term mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-9.1; HR 4.3, 95% CI 1.4-13.5, respectively). After adjusting for important covariates, both BNP and NT-proBNP remained independently associated with long-term mortality (HR 2.9, 95%CI 1.5-5.7; HR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1-3.1, respectively). Conclusion: In patients with severe AS, plasma BNP and NT-proBNP levels were associated with long-term mortality. The use of these biomarkers to guide treatment might represent an interesting approach that deserves further evaluation. The Journal of Heart Valve Disease 2012;21:331-336

Higher incidence of death in multi-vessel coronary artery disease patients associated with polymorphisms in chromosome 9p21

Background: We investigated whether 9p21 polymorphisms are associated with cardiovascular events in a group of 611 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and preserved left ventricular function. Methods: The participants of the MASS II were genotyped for 9p21 polymorphisms (rs10757274, rs2383206, rs10757278 and rs1333049). Survival curves were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank statistic. We assessed the relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point of death, death from cardiac causes and myocardial infarction using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results: We observed significant differences between patients within each polymorphism genotype group for baseline characteristics. The frequency of diabetes was lower in patients carrying GG genotype for rs10757274, rs2383206 and rs10757278 (29.4%, 32.8%, 32.0%) compared to patients carrying AA or AG genotypes (49.1% and 39.2%, p = 0.01; 52.4% and 40.1%, p = 0.01; 47.8% and 37.9%, p = 0.04; respectively). Significant differences in genotype frequencies between double and triple vessel disease patients were observed for the rs10757274, rs10757278 and rs1333049. Finally, there was a higher incidence of overall mortality in patients with the GG genotype for rs2383206 compared to patients with AA and AG genotypes (19.5%, 11.9%, 11.0%, respectively; p = 0.04). Moreover, the rs2383206 was still significantly associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of overall mortality (p = 0.02) even after adjustment of a Cox multivariate model for age, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, smoking and type of coronary anatomy. Conclusions: Our data are in accordance to previous evidence that chromosome 9p21 genetic variation may constitute a genetic modulator in the cardiovascular system in different scenarios. In patients with established CAD, we observed an association between the rs2383206 and higher incidence of overall mortality and death from cardiac causes in patients with multi-vessel CAD.

The Real Importance of Pre-Existing Comorbidities on Long-Term Mortality after Acute Kidney Injury

Background: The causes of death on long-term mortality after acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been well studied. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role of comorbidities and the causes of death on the long-term mortality after AKI. Methodology/Principal Findings: We retrospectively studied 507 patients who experienced AKI in 2005-2006 and were discharged free from dialysis. In June 2008 (median: 21 months after AKI), we found that 193 (38%) patients had died. This mortality is much higher than the mortality of the population of Sao Paulo City, even after adjustment for age. A multiple survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model and showed that death was associated with Khan's index indicating high risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 (1.38-4.66)], chronic liver disease [1.93 (1.15-3.22)], admission to non-surgical ward [1.85 (1.30-2.61)] and a second AKI episode during the same hospitalization [1.74 (1.12-2.71)]. The AKI severity evaluated either by the worst stage reached during AKI (P=0.20) or by the need for dialysis (P=0.12) was not associated with death. The causes of death were identified by a death certificate in 85% of the non-survivors. Among those who died from circulatory system diseases (the main cause of death), 59% had already suffered from hypertension, 34% from diabetes, 47% from heart failure, 38% from coronary disease, and 66% had a glomerular filtration rate <60 previous to the AKI episode. Among those who died from neoplasms, 79% already had the disease previously. Conclusions: Among AKI survivors who were discharged free from dialysis the increased long-term mortality was associated with their pre-existing chronic conditions and not with the severity of the AKI episode. These findings suggest that these survivors should have a medical follow-up after hospital discharge and that all efforts should be made to control their comorbidities.

Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

Occupational safety and health practices among flower greenhouses workers from Alto Tiete region (Brazil)

In this preliminary study the occupational safety and health practices among flower greenhouses workers were evaluated. The study was carried out in the alto Tiete region, located at the Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Inadequate welfare facilities; poor pesticide storage, use and disposal conditions; use of highly toxic pesticides; lack of adequate data regarding pesticide use; and incorrect use and maintenance of PPE were observed in most of the visited greenhouses. These results suggest that, in greenhouses, workers may be at higher risk of pesticide exposure, due to many factors that can intensify the exposure such as the lack of control on reentry intervals after pesticide application. Specific regulations are needed to ensure better OSH practices on pesticide use and to improve working conditions in greenhouses, in order to deal with the peculiarities of greenhouse working environment. Some of the special requirements for greenhouses workers' protection are the establishment of ventilation criteria for restricted entry interval; clear reentry restrictions; and EPI for workers other than applicators that need to enter the greenhouse before expiring REI interval. Another important way to improve OSH practices among workers includes the distribution of simple guidelines on the dos and don'ts regarding OSH practices in greenhouses and extensively training interventions to change the perception of hazards and the behavior towards risk. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Independent predictors and a prognostic model for surgical outcome in refractory frontal lobe epilepsy

Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between UCP2 A55V polymorphism and risk of cardiovascular events in patients with multi-vessel coronary arterial disease

Background UCP2 (uncoupling protein 2) plays an important role in cardiovascular diseases and recent studies have suggested that the A55V polymorphism can cause UCP2 dysfunction. The main aim was to investigate the association of A55V polymorphism with cardiovascular events in a group of 611 patients enrolled in the Medical, Angioplasty or Surgery Study II (MASS II), a randomized trial comparing treatments for patients with coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function. Methods The participants of the MASS II were genotyped for the A55V polymorphism using allele-specific PCR assay. Survival curves were calculated with the Kaplan–Meier method and evaluated with the log-rank statistic. The relationship between baseline variables and the composite end-point of cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), refractory angina requiring revascularization and cerebrovascular accident were assessed using a Cox proportional hazards survival model. Results There were no significant differences for baseline variables according genotypes. After 2 years of follow-up, dysglycemic patients harboring the VV genotype had higher occurrence of AMI (p=0.026), Death+AMI (p=0.033), new revascularization intervention (p=0.009) and combined events (p=0.037) as compared with patients carrying other genotypes. This association was not evident in normoglycemic patients. Conclusions These findings support the hypothesis that A55V polymorphism is associated with UCP2 functional alterations that increase the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with previous coronary artery disease and dysglycemia.

Blood transfusion in cardiac surgery is a risk factor for increased hospital length of stay in adult patients

Abstract Background Allogeneic red blood cell (RBC) transfusion has been proposed as a negative indicator of quality in cardiac surgery. Hospital length of stay (LOS) may be a surrogate of poor outcome in transfused patients. Methods Data from 502 patients included in Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery (TRACS) study were analyzed to assess the relationship between RBC transfusion and hospital LOS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and enrolled in the TRACS study. Results According to the status of RBC transfusion, patients were categorized into the following three groups: 1) 199 patients (40%) who did not receive RBC, 2) 241 patients (48%) who received 3 RBC units or fewer (low transfusion requirement group), and 3) 62 patients (12%) who received more than 3 RBC units (high transfusion requirement group). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, the following factors were predictive of a prolonged hospital length of stay: age higher than 65 years, EuroSCORE, valvular surgery, combined procedure, LVEF lower than 40% and RBC transfusion of > 3 units. Conclusion RBC transfusion is an independent risk factor for increased LOS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This finding highlights the adequacy of a restrictive transfusion therapy in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: http://NCT01021631.