Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Percolation transition in quantum Ising and rotor models with sub-Ohmic dissipation

We investigate the influence of sub-Ohmic dissipation on randomly diluted quantum Ising and rotor models. The dissipation causes the quantum dynamics of sufficiently large percolation clusters to freeze completely. As a result, the zero-temperature quantum phase transition across the lattice percolation threshold separates an unusual super-paramagnetic cluster phase from an inhomogeneous ferromagnetic phase. We determine the low-temperature thermodynamic behavior in both phases, which is dominated by large frozen and slowly fluctuating percolation clusters. We relate our results to the smeared transition scenario for disordered quantum phase transitions, and we compare the cases of sub-Ohmic, Ohmic, and super-Ohmic dissipation.

A modified Primal-Dual Logarithmic-Barrier Method for solving the Optimal Power Flow problem with discrete and continuous control variables

The aim of solving the Optimal Power Flow problem is to determine the optimal state of an electric power transmission system, that is, the voltage magnitude and phase angles and the tap ratios of the transformers that optimize the performance of a given system, while satisfying its physical and operating constraints. The Optimal Power Flow problem is modeled as a large-scale mixed-discrete nonlinear programming problem. This paper proposes a method for handling the discrete variables of the Optimal Power Flow problem. A penalty function is presented. Due to the inclusion of the penalty function into the objective function, a sequence of nonlinear programming problems with only continuous variables is obtained and the solutions of these problems converge to a solution of the mixed problem. The obtained nonlinear programming problems are solved by a Primal-Dual Logarithmic-Barrier Method. Numerical tests using the IEEE 14, 30, 118 and 300-Bus test systems indicate that the method is efficient. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing phenomenological and theoretical models of dark matter density profiles with galaxy clusters

We use the stacked gravitational lensingmass profile of four high-mass (M 1015M ) galaxy clusters around z≈0.3 from Umetsu et al. to fit density profiles of phenomenological [Navarro– Frenk–White (NFW), Einasto, S´ersic, Stadel, Baltz–Marshall–Oguri (BMO) and Hernquist] and theoretical (non-singular Isothermal Sphere, DARKexp and Kang & He) models of the dark matter distribution. We account for large-scale structure effects, including a two-halo term in the analysis.We find that the BMO model provides the best fit to the data as measured by the reduced χ2. It is followed by the Stadel profile, the generalized NFW profile with a free inner slope and by the Einasto profile. The NFW model provides the best fit if we neglect the two-halo term, in agreement with results from Umetsu et al. Among the theoretical profiles, the DARKexp model with a single form parameter has the best performance, very close to that of the BMO profile. This may indicate a connection between this theoretical model and the phenomenology of dark matter haloes, shedding light on the dynamical basis of empirical profiles which emerge from numerical simulations.

Using occupancy models to investigate space partitioning between two sympatric large predators, the jaguar and puma in central Brazil

Coexistence of sympatric species is mediated by resource partitioning. Pumas occur sympatrically with jaguars throughout most of the jaguar's range but few studies have investigated space partitioning between both species. Here, camera trapping and occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection were employed in a Bayesian framework to investigate space partitioning between the jaguar and puma in Emas National Park (ENP), central Brazil. Jaguars were estimated to occupy 54.1% and pumas 39.3% of the sample sites. Jaguar occupancy was negatively correlated with distance to water and positively correlated with the amount of dense habitat surrounding the camera trap. Puma occupancy only showed a weak negative correlation with distance to water and with jaguar presence. Both species were less often present at the same site than expected under independent distributions. Jaguars had a significantly higher detection probability at cameras on roads than at off-road locations. For pumas, detection was similar on and off-road. Results indicate that both differences in habitat use and active avoidance shape space partitioning between jaguars and pumas in ENP. Considering its size, the jaguar is likely the competitively dominant of the two species. Owing to its habitat preferences, suitable jaguar habitat outside the park is probably sparse. Consequently, the jaguar population is likely largely confined to the park, while the puma population is known to extend into ENP's surroundings. (C) 2011 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Covariates of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are distinct for incident CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 as disclosed by competing-risks regression models

Background: In addition to the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV), several cofactors are needed in cervical carcinogenesis, but whether the HPV covariates associated with incident i) CIN1 are different from those of incident ii) CIN2 and iii) CIN3 needs further assessment. Objectives: To gain further insights into the true biological differences between CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, we assessed HPV covariates associated with incident CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3. Study Design and Methods: HPV covariates associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3 were analysed in the combined cohort of the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS study (n = 12,114), using competing-risks regression models (in panel data) for baseline HR-HPV-positive women (n = 1,105), who represent a sub-cohort of all 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in these two studies. Results: Altogether, 90 (4.8%), 39 (2.1%) and 14 (1.4%) cases progressed to CIN1, CIN2, and CIN3, respectively. Among these baseline HR-HPV-positive women, the risk profiles of incident GIN I, CIN2 and CIN3 were unique in that completely different HPV covariates were associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3, irrespective which categories (non-progression, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 or all) were used as competing-risks events in univariate and multivariate models. Conclusions: These data confirm our previous analysis based on multinomial regression models implicating that distinct covariates of HR-HPV are associated with progression to CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3. This emphasises true biological differences between the three grades of GIN, which revisits the concept of combining CIN2 with CIN3 or with CIN1 in histological classification or used as a common end-point, e.g., in HPV vaccine trials.

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

Physical objects on navigation channal simulation models

This paper presents the results of a simulation using physical objects. This concept integrates the physical dimensions of an entity such as length, width, and weight, with the usual process flow paradigm, recurrent in the discrete event simulation models. Based on a naval logistics system, we applied this technique in an access channel of the largest port of Latin America. This system is composed by vessel movement constrained by the access channel dimensions. Vessel length and width dictates whether it is safe or not to have one or two ships simultaneously. The success delivered by the methodology proposed was an accurate validation of the model, approximately 0.45% of deviation, when compared to real data. Additionally, the model supported the design of new terminals operations for Santos, delivering KPIs such as: canal utilization, queue time, berth utilization, and throughput capability

A cyclic bipolar wind in the interacting binary V 393 Scorpii

V393 Scorpii is a double periodic variable characterized by a relatively stable non-orbital photometric cycle of 253 d. Mennickent et al. argue for the presence of a massive optically thick disc around the more massive B-type component and describe the evolutionary stage of the system. In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of the main spectroscopic optical lines during the long non-orbital photometric cycle. We study the radial velocity of the donor determining its orbital elements and find a small but significant orbital eccentricity (e = 0.04). The donor spectral features are modelled and removed from the spectrum at every observing epoch using the light-curve model given by Mennickent et al. We find that the line emission is larger during eclipses and mostly comes from a bipolar wind. We also find that the long cycle is explained in terms of a modulation of the wind strength; the wind has a larger line and continuum emissivity at the high state. We report the discovery of highly variable chromospheric emission in the donor, as revealed by the Doppler maps of the emission lines Mg II 4481 and C I 6588. We discuss notable and some novel spectroscopic features like discrete absorption components, especially visible at blue depressed O I 7773 absorption wings during the second half-cycle, Balmer double emission with V/R curves showing 'Z-type' and 'S-type' excursions around secondary and main eclipses, respectively, and H beta emission wings extending up to +/- 2000 km s(-1). We also discuss possible causes for these phenomena and for their modulations with the long cycle.

Predictive models for mutations in mismatch repair genes: implication for genetic counseling in developing countries

Background: Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common form of inherited predisposition to colorectal cancer (CRC), accounting for 2-5% of all CRC. LS is an autosomal dominant disease characterized by mutations in the mismatch repair genes mutL homolog 1 (MLH1), mutS homolog 2 (MSH2), postmeiotic segregation increased 1 (PMS1), post-meiotic segregation increased 2 (PMS2) and mutS homolog 6 (MSH6). Mutation risk prediction models can be incorporated into clinical practice, facilitating the decision-making process and identifying individuals for molecular investigation. This is extremely important in countries with limited economic resources. This study aims to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of five predictive models for germline mutations in repair genes in a sample of individuals with suspected Lynch syndrome. Methods: Blood samples from 88 patients were analyzed through sequencing MLH1, MSH2 and MSH6 genes. The probability of detecting a mutation was calculated using the PREMM, Barnetson, MMRpro, Wijnen and Myriad models. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the models, receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed. Results: Of the 88 patients included in this analysis, 31 mutations were identified: 16 were found in the MSH2 gene, 15 in the MLH1 gene and no pathogenic mutations were identified in the MSH6 gene. It was observed that the AUC for the PREMM (0.846), Barnetson (0.850), MMRpro (0.821) and Wijnen (0.807) models did not present significant statistical difference. The Myriad model presented lower AUC (0.704) than the four other models evaluated. Considering thresholds of >= 5%, the models sensitivity varied between 1 (Myriad) and 0.87 (Wijnen) and specificity ranged from 0 (Myriad) to 0.38 (Barnetson). Conclusions: The Barnetson, PREMM, MMRpro and Wijnen models present similar AUC. The AUC of the Myriad model is statistically inferior to the four other models.

THE LOG-BURR XII REGRESSION MODEL FOR GROUPED SURVIVAL DATA

The log-Burr XII regression model for grouped survival data is evaluated in the presence of many ties. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, where the times are grouped in k intervals, and we fit discrete lifetime regression models to the data. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed model, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, so-called global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to these measures, the total local influence and influential estimates are also used. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of the proposed model for grouped survival. A real data set is analyzed using a regression model for grouped data.

Anomalous centrality evolution of two-particle angular correlations from Au-Au collisions at root s(NN)=62 and 200 GeV

We present two-dimensional (2D) two-particle angular correlations measured with the STAR detector on relative pseudorapidity eta and azimuth phi for charged particles from Au-Au collisions at root s(NN) = 62 and 200 GeV with transverse momentum p(t) >= 0.15 GeV/c, vertical bar eta vertical bar <= 1, and 2 pi in azimuth. Observed correlations include a same-side (relative azimuth <pi/2) 2D peak, a closely related away-side azimuth dipole, and an azimuth quadrupole conventionally associated with elliptic flow. The same-side 2D peak and away-side dipole are explained by semihard parton scattering and fragmentation (minijets) in proton-proton and peripheral nucleus-nucleus collisions. Those structures follow N-N binary-collision scaling in Au-Au collisions until midcentrality, where a transition to a qualitatively different centrality trend occurs within one 10% centrality bin. Above the transition point the number of same-side and away-side correlated pairs increases rapidly relative to binary-collision scaling, the eta width of the same-side 2D peak also increases rapidly (eta elongation), and the phi width actually decreases significantly. Those centrality trends are in marked contrast with conventional expectations for jet quenching in a dense medium. The observed centrality trends are compared to perturbative QCD predictions computed in HIJING, which serve as a theoretical baseline, and to the expected trends for semihard parton scattering and fragmentation in a thermalized opaque medium predicted by theoretical calculations and phenomenological models. We are unable to reconcile a semihard parton scattering and fragmentation origin for the observed correlation structure and centrality trends with heavy-ion collision scenarios that invoke rapid parton thermalization. If the collision system turns out to be effectively opaque to few-GeV partons the present observations would be inconsistent with the minijet picture discussed here. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevC.86.064902

A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photo luminescent polymer electrolyte based on agar and containing europium picrate for electrochemical devices

Dispersion of photoluminescent rare earth metal complexes in polymer matrices is of great interest due to the possibility of avoiding the saturation of the photoluminescent signal. The possibility of using a natural ionic conducting polymer matrix was investigated in this study. Samples of agar-based electrolytes containing europium picrate were prepared and characterized by physical and chemical analyses. The FTIR spectra indicated strong interaction of agar O-H and 3.6-anhydro-galactose C-O groups with glycerol and europium picrate. The DSC analyses revealed no glass transition temperature of the samples in the -60 to 250 degrees C range. From the thermogravimetry (TG), a thermal stability of the samples of up to 180 degrees C was stated. The membranes were subjected to ionic conductivity measurement, which provided the values of 2.6 x 10(-6) S/cm for the samples with acetic acid and 1.6 x 10(-5) S/cm for the samples without acetic acid. Moreover, the temperature-dependent ionic conductivity measurements revealed both Arrhenius and VTF models of the conductivity depending on the sample. Surface visualization through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) demonstrated good uniformity. The samples were also applied in small electrochromic devices and showed good electrochemical stability. The present work confirmed that these materials may perform as satisfactory multifunctional component layers in the field of electrochemical devices. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.