Comparative analysis of rating curve and ADP estimates of instantaneous water discharge through estuaries in two contrasting Brazilian rivers

This work quantifies, using ADP and rating curve techniques, the instantaneous outflows at estuarine interfaces: higher to middle estuary and middle to lower estuary, in two medium-sized watersheds (72 000 and 66 000 km(2) of area, respectively), the Jaguaribe and Contas Rivers located in the northeastern (semi-arid) and eastern (tropical humid) Brazilian coasts, respectively. Results from ADP showed that the net water balances show the Contas River as a net water exporter, whereas the Jaguaribe River Estuary is a net water importer. At the Jaguaribe Estuary, water retention during flood tide contributes to 58% of the total volume transferred during the ebb tide from the middle to lower estuary. However, 42% of the total water volume (452 m(3) s(-1)) that entered during flood tide is retained in the middle estuary. In the Contas River, 90% of the total water is retained during the flood tide contributing to the volume transported in the ebb tide from the middle to the lower estuary. Outflows obtained with the rating curve method for the Contas and Jaguaribe Rivers were uniform through time due to river flow normalization by dams in both basins. Estimated outflows with this method are about 65% (Contas) and 95% (Jaguaribe) lower compared to outflows obtained with ADP. This suggests that the outflows obtained with the rating curve method underestimate the net water balance in both systems, particularly in the Jaguaribe River under a semi-arid climate. This underestimation is somewhat decreased due to wetter conditions in the Contas River basin. Copyright. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating the legacy of landscape history: extinction debt and species credit in bird and small mammal assemblages in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.

Air accident investigation among regulatory agencies

The aim of this manuscript is to describe and compare regulatory aviation agencies according to their subordination and attributions to investigate air accidents. Possible consequences in identifying the contributory factors are also presented. Distinct procedures investigating air accidents among agencies lead to a lack of standardization of the statistics, making it difficult to analyze the data globally. Separately the information does not configure the entire scenario of what occurred, affecting the analysis and subsequent interventions. We recommend a joint and collaborative work between the different committees that operate in the investigation of air accidents.

Is there a relationship between the total volume of load lifted in bench press exercise and the rating of perceived exertion?

Aim. The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationship between the total volume of load lifted (TVLL) and the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) measures during different resistance training (RT) schemes using the bench press exercise. Methods. The present study was divided into two experiments. In the first experiment, 18 healthy men performed three different RT schemes: a strength oriented scheme (SS), a muscular endurance oriented scheme (ES) and a hypertrophy oriented scheme (HS). TVLL was calculated for each scheme. Mean-RPE and session-RPE were assessed. In the second experiment, 23 men performed two resistance exercise bouts at different intensities (50 %-1RM and 75%-1RM) with matched TVLL. Mean-RPE and session-RPE were also assessed. Results. SS and HS showed higher TVLL and greater RPE scores as compared to ES (P<0.05). No significant difference was observed between SS and HS. It was verified significant positive correlations between TVLL and session-RPE (SS r=0.63, HS r=0.64, ES r=0.56; P<0.05), and between mean-RPE and TVLL (SS r=0.55, HS r=0.52, ES r=0.47; P<0.05) for all schemes. No differences were observed for mean-RPE, session-RPE and TVLL between the 50%-1RM and 75%1RM. Significant positive relationships between TVLL and session-RPE (50 %-1RM r=0.61, 75 %-1RM r=0.66; p<0.05) and between TVLL and mean-RPE (50 %-1RM r=0.51, 75%1RM r=0.49; P<0.05) were observed. Conclusion. The results of this study have shown that the TVLL in RT influences RPE measures. These findings corroborates the existence of a relationship between total work performed (external training load) and perception of effort (internal training load).

Determinants of discordance in patients' and physicians' rating of rheumatoid arthritis disease activity

Objective To assess the determinants of patients' (PTGL) and physicians' (MDGL) global assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) activity and factors associated with discordance among them. Methods. A total of 7,028 patients in the Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA study had PTGL and MDGL assessed at the same clinic visit on a 0-10-cm visual analog scale (VAS). Three patient groups were defined: concordant rating group (PTGL and MDGL within >= 2 cm), higher patient rating group (PTGL exceeding MDGL by > 2 cm), and lower patient rating group (PTGL less than MDGL by > 2 cm). Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify determinants of PTGL and MDGL and their discordance. Results. The mean +/- SD VAS scores for PTGL and MDGL were 4.01 +/- 2.70 and 2.91 +/- 2.37, respectively. Pain was overwhelmingly the single most important determinant of PTGL, followed by fatigue. In contrast, MDGL was most influenced by swollen joint count (SJC), followed by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and tender joint count (TJC). A total of 4,454 (63.4%), 2,106 (30%), and 468 (6.6%) patients were in the concordant, higher, and lower patient rating groups, respectively. Odds of higher patient rating increased with higher pain, fatigue, psychological distress, age, and morning stiffness, and decreased with higher SJC, TJC, and ESR. Lower patient rating odds increased with higher SJC, TJC, and ESR, and decreased with lower fatigue levels. Conclusion. Nearly 36% of patients had discordance in RA activity assessment from their physicians. Sensitivity to the "disease experience" of patients, particularly pain and fatigue, is warranted for effective care of RA.

On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparação dos instrumentos Childhood Autism Rating Scale e Autism Behavior Checklist na identificação e caracterização de indivíduos com distúrbios do espectro autístico

OBJETIVO: Comparar as respostas dos instrumentos Childhood Autism Rating Scale e Autism Behavior Checklist na identificação e caracterização de indivíduos com Distúrbios do Espectro Autístico. MÉTODOS: Participaram 28 indivíduos que estavam em atendimento fonoaudiológico e possuíam diagnósticos inseridos no Espectro do Autismo. Todos foram avaliados por meio dos instrumentos Autism Behavior Checklist e Childhood Autism Rating Scale a partir de informações obtidas, respectivamente, com pais e terapeutas. Os dados foram analisados estatisticamente em relação à concordância das respostas obtidas. Foram considerados concordantes os resultados de alta ou moderada probabilidade para autismo no Autism Behavior Checklist e com autismo leve-moderado ou grave na Childhood Autism Rating Scale, e respostas de baixa probabilidade no Autism Behavior Checklist e sem autismo na Childhood Autism Rating Scale. RESULTADOS: Houve concordância na maior parte das respostas obtidas. Casos em que houve discordância entre os resultados obtidos a partir dos protocolos corroboram dados da literatura, evidenciando que os instrumentos podem não ser suficientes, quando aplicados isoladamente para a definição do diagnóstico. CONCLUSÃO: Enquanto a Childhood Autism Rating Scale pode não diagnosticar crianças efetivamente autistas, o Autism Behavior Checklist pode incluir como autistas, crianças com outros distúrbios. Portanto, recomenda-se o uso complementar dos dois instrumentos.