Bootstrap confidence intervals for industrial recurrent event data

Industrial recurrent event data where an event of interest can be observed more than once in a single sample unit are presented in several areas, such as engineering, manufacturing and industrial reliability. Such type of data provide information about the number of events, time to their occurrence and also their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the cost and the number of cumulative recurrent events. Although this is a standard procedure, it can not perform well in some situations, in particular when the sample size available is small. In this context, computer-intensive methods such as bootstrap can be used to construct confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a technique based on the bootstrap method to have interval estimates for the cost and the number of cumulative events. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is the possibility for its application in several areas and its easy computational implementation. In addition, it can be a better alternative than asymptotic-based methods to calculate confidence intervals, according to some Monte Carlo simulations. An example from the engineering area illustrates the methodology.

Potent Antiretroviral Therapy for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Increases Aortic Stiffness

Background: Highly active antiretroviral therapy for AIDS is known to increase cardiovascular risk, but the effects of potent antiretroviral agents according to gender are unknown. Objective: The present study evaluated the impact of HIV infection treatment on aortic stiffness according to gender. Methods: From university-affiliated hospitals, we recruited 28 AIDS patients undergoing highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART), 28 treatment-naive HIV-infected patients, 44 patients with type 2 diabetes, and 30 controls. Aortic stiffness was determined by measuring pulse wave velocity (PWV) using a validated and non-invasive automatic device. Results: The crude mean PWV values and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for HAART, diabetics, and controls were 9.77 m/s (95% CI 9.17-10.36),, 9.00 m/s (95% CI 8.37-9.63), 9.90 m/s (95% CI 9.32-10.49), and 9.28 m/s (95% CI 8.61-9.95), respectively, for men (P-value for trend = 0.14), and 9.61 m/s (95% CI 8.56-10.66), 8.45 m/s (95% CI 7.51-9.39), 9.83 (95% CI 9.21-10.44), and 7.79 m/s (95% CI 6.99-8.58), respectively, for women (P-value for trend <0.001). Post-hoc analysis revealed a significant difference between the mean PWV values in the HAART group and controls in women (P-value <0.01). After adjusting for other potential covariates, including systolic blood pressure and diabetes, these results did not change. The findings indicate that the impact of HAART treatment on aortic stiffness was amplified in women with hypertension, dyslipidemia, and metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: Potent anti-retroviral agents used in the treatment of HIV infection increases aortic stiffness, mainly among women with higher cardiovascular risk. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(6):1100-1107)

PREVALENCE AND DETERMINANTS OF EXCLUSIVE BREASTFEEDING IN THE CITY OF SERRANA, SAO PAULO, BRAZIL

The objective of this cross-sectional and quantitative study was to identify the prevalence and determinants of exclusive breastfeeding among infants less than six months of age in the city of Serrana, Sao Paulo, Brazil in 2009. A validated semi-structured questionnaire was administered to the guardians of the children less than six months of age who attended the second phase of a Brazilian vaccination campaign against polio. Univariate and multivariate analysis presented in odds ratios and confidence intervals was accomplished. Of the total of 275 infant participants, only 29.8% were exclusively breastfed. Univariate analysis revealed that mothers who work outside the home without maternity leave, mothers who did not work outside the home, adolescent mothers, and the use of pacifiers have a greater chance of interrupting exclusive breastfeeding. In the multivariate analysis, mothers who work outside the home without maternity leave are three times more likely to wean their children early. Results provide suggestions for the redirection and planning of interventions targeting breastfeeding.

Ischemic heart disease and correlates in adults from Ribeirao Preto, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify the prevalence of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and correlates in an adult population. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based epidemiological study including a weighted sample of 2,471 adults of both sexes and with age 30 years or older residing in Ribeirao Preto, Southeastern Brazil, in 2007. The Rose Questionnaire was administered, and IHD prevalence was calculated with point estimates and 95% confidence intervals. To identify correlates (sociodemographic, cardiovascular risk factors, and those related to access to health services and to physical activity level), crude and adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: IHD prevalence was higher in females than males at all age strata. In the final model, the following variables were independently associated with IHD: work status (PR = 0.54 [0.37; 0.78]); family history of IHD (PR = 1.55 [1.12;2.13]); hypertension (PR = 1.70 [1.18;2.46]); self-reported health status (PR=2.15 [1.40;3.31]); smoking duration (third tertile) (PR=1.73 [1.08;2.76]); adjusted waist circumference (PR=1.79 [1.21;2.65]) and hypertriglyceridemia (PR=1.48 [1.05;2.10]). Linear trend test of PR across self-reported health status categories was statistically significant (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of IHD was found, and the factors associated with the outcome are almost all modifiable and potentially influenced by public policy interventions.

Prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.

Duration of dual antiplatelet therapy and outcomes after coronary stenting with the genous (TM) bio-engineered R stent (TM) in patients from the e-healing registry

Objective: We investigated the relation between duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) and clinical outcomes up to 12 months after Genous (TM) endothelial progenitor cell capturing R stent (TM) placement in patients from the e-HEALING registry. Background: Cessation of (DAPT) has been shown to be associated with the occurrence of stent thrombosis (ST). After Genous placement, 1 month of DAPT is recommended. Methods: Patients were analyzed according to continuation or discontinuation of DAPT at a 30-day and 6-month landmark, excluding patients with events before the landmark. Each landmark was a new baseline, and outcomes were followed up to 12 months after stenting. The main outcome for our current analysis was target vessel failure (TVF), defined as target vessel-related cardiac death or myocardial infarction and target vessel revascularization. Secondary outcomes included ST. (Un)adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for TVF were calculated with Cox regression. Results: No difference was observed in the incidence of TVF [HR: 1.03; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.651.65, P = 0.89] in patients continuing DAPT (n = 4,249) at 30 days versus patients stopped (n = 309), and HR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.551.23, P = 0.34) in patients continuing DAPT (n = 2,654) at 6 months versus patients stopped [n = 1,408] DAPT). Furthermore, no differences were observed in ST. Even after addition of identified independent predictors for TVF, adjusted TVF hazards were comparable. Conclusions: In a post-hoc analysis of e-HEALING, duration of DAPT was not associated with the occurrence of the outcomes TVF or ST. The Genous stent may be an attractive treatment especially in patients at increased risk for (temporary) cessation of DAPT or bleeding. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Extraoral Implants in the Rehabilitation of Craniofacial Defects: Implant and Prosthesis Survival Rates and Peri-Implant Soft Tissue Evaluation

Purpose: Few reports have evaluated cumulative survival rates of extraoral rehabilitation and peri-implant soft tissue reaction at long-term follow-up. The objective of this study was to evaluate implant and prosthesis survival rates and the soft tissue reactions around the extraoral implants used to support craniofacial prostheses. Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was performed of patients who received implants for craniofacial rehabilitation from 2003 to 2010. Two outcome variables were considered: implant and prosthetic success. The following predictor variables were recorded: gender, age, implant placement location, number and size of implants, irradiation status in the treated field, date of prosthesis delivery, soft tissue response, and date of last follow-up. A statistical model was used to estimate survival rates and associated confidence intervals. We randomly selected 1 implant per patient for analysis. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to compare survival curves. Results: A total of 150 titanium implants were placed in 56 patients. The 2-year overall implant survival rates were 94.1% for auricular implants, 90.9% for nasal implants, 100% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .585). The implant survival rates were 100% for implants placed in irradiated patients and 94.4% for those placed in nonirradiated patients (P = .324). The 2-year overall prosthesis survival rates were 100% for auricular implants, 90.0% for nasal implants, 92.3% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .363). The evaluation of the peri-implant soft tissue response showed that 15 patients (26.7%) had a grade 0 soft tissue reaction, 30 (53.5%) had grade 1, 6 (10.7%) had grade 2, and 5 (8.9%) had grade 3. Conclusions: From this study, it was concluded that craniofacial rehabilitation with extraoral implants is a safe, reliable, and predictable method to restore the patient's normal appearance. (C) 2012 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 70:1551-1557, 2012

Evaluation of the agreement by examiners according to classifications of third molars

Objectives. This study recorded and evaluated the intra-and inter-group agreement degree by different examiners for the classification of lower third molars according to both the Winter's and Pell & Gregory's systems. Study Design. An observational and cross-sectional study was realized with forty lower third molars analyzed from twenty digital panoramic radiographs. Four examiner groups (undergraduates, maxillofacial surgeons, oral radiologists and clinical dentists) from Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil, classified them in relation to angulation, class and position. The variance test (ANOVA) was applied in the examiner findings with significance level of p<0.05 and confidence intervals of 95%. Results. Intra- and inter-group agreement was observed in Winter's classification system among all examiners. Pell & Gregory's classification system showed an average intra-group agreement and a statistical significant difference to position variable in inter-group analysis with greater disagreement to the clinical dentists group (p<0.05). Conclusions. High reproducibility was associated to Winter's classification, whereas the system proposed by Pell & Gregory did not demonstrate appropriate levels of reliability.

Early stroke case-fatality rates in three hospital registries in the Northeast and Southeast of Brazil

Few studies have addressed early cerebrovascular lethality in Brazil. Objective: To evaluate 10 and 28-day stroke case-fatality rates in three hospitals in three Brazilian cities. Methods: We described the stroke registries in Sao Paulo, Joao Pessoa, and Natal. Results: Out of a total of 962 first-ever events (mean age, 68.1 years-old; 53% men), 83.6% (804 cases) were classified as ischemic and 16.4% (158) as hemorrhagic stroke. Overall, the case-fatality rates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for hemorrhagic stroke events were higher than for ischemic events, both at 10 (12.3%; 95% CI 7.2-17.4 versus 7.0%; 95% CI 5.3-8.8) and at 28 days (19.8%; 95% CI 13.6-26.0 versus 11.1%; 95% CI 8.9-13.3). Conclusions: We did not find any substantial differences in early case-fatality rates according to stroke subtypes, when comparing the three centers.

Vitamin or mineral supplement intake and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

To investigate the potential role of vitamin or mineral supplementation on the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC), we analyzed individual-level pooled data from 12 casecontrol studies (7,002 HNC cases and 8,383 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. There were a total of 2,028 oral cavity cancer, 2,465 pharyngeal cancer, 874 unspecified oral/pharynx cancer, 1,329 laryngeal cancer and 306 overlapping HNC cases. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for self reported ever use of any vitamins, multivitamins, vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin E, and calcium, beta-carotene, iron, selenium and zinc supplements were assessed. We further examined frequency, duration and cumulative exposure of each vitamin or mineral when possible and stratified by smoking and drinking status. All ORs were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, education level, pack-years of smoking, frequency of alcohol drinking and fruit/vegetable intake. A decreased risk of HNC was observed with ever use of vitamin C (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.590.96) and with ever use of calcium supplement (OR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.420.97). The inverse association with HNC risk was also observed for 10 or more years of vitamin C use (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.540.97) and more than 365 tablets of cumulative calcium intake (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.160.83), but linear trends were not observed for the frequency or duration of any supplement intake. We did not observe any strong associations between vitamin or mineral supplement intake and the risk of HNC.

INFERENCES FOR THE CHANGE-POINT OF THE EXPONENTIATED WEIBULL HAZARD FUNCTION

In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the change-point of the hazard function. The change-point could be a maximum for unimodal hazard functions or a minimum for bathtub forms of hazard functions and is usually of great interest in medical or industrial applications. For lifetime distributions where this change-point of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can also be obtained. Considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution for the lifetime data, we have different forms for the hazard function: constant, increasing, unimodal, decreasing or bathtub forms. This model gives great flexibility of fit, but we do not have analytic expressions for the change-point of the hazard function. In this way, we consider the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to get posterior summaries for the change-point of the hazard function considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution.

ABSENCE OF STABILIZATION POINT OF THE SPECIES ACCUMULATION CURVE IN TROPICAL FORESTS

The definition of the sample size is a major problem in studies of phytosociology. The species accumulation curve is used to define the sampling sufficiency, but this method presents some limitations such as the absence of a stabilization point that can be objectively determined and the arbitrariness of the order of sampling units in the curve. A solution to this problem is the use of randomization procedures, e. g. permutation, for obtaining a mean species accumulation curve and empiric confidence intervals. However, the randomization process emphasizes the asymptotical character of the curve. Moreover, the inexistence of an inflection point in the curve makes it impossible to define objectively the point of optimum sample size.

Household income, sex and respiratory mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2010

SETTING: Respiratory mortality rates are declining in several countries, including Brazil; however, the effect of socio-economic indicators and sex is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To identify differences in mortality trends according to income and sex in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. DESIGN: We performed a time-trend analysis of all respiratory diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer and tuberculosis, using Joinpoint regression comparing high, middle and low household income levels from 1996 to 2010. RESULTS: The annual per cent change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for death rates from all respiratory disease in men in high-income areas was -1.1 (95%CI -2.7 to 0.5) in 1996-2002 and -4.3 (95%CI -5.9 to -2.8) in 2003-2009. In middle- and low-income areas, the decline was respectively -1.5 (95%CI -2.2 to -0.7) and -1.4 (95%CI -1.9 to -0.8). For women, the APC declined in high-income (-1.0, 95%CI -1.9 to -0.2) and low-income areas (0.8, 95%CI -1.3 to -0.2), but not in middle-income areas (-0.5, 95%CI -1.4 to 0.3) from 1996 to 2010. CONCLUSION: Death rates due to COPD and all respiratory disease declined more consistently in men from high-income areas. Mortality due to lung cancer decreased in men, but increased in women in middle- and low-income areas.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p (trend) = 0.13) and processed meat (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.14-1.65, p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Are mental health problems and depression associated with bruxism in children?

Renner AC, da Silva AAM, Rodriguez JDM, Simoes VMF, Barbieri MA, Bettiol H, Thomaz EBAF, Saraiva MC. Are mental health problems and depression associated with bruxism in children? Community Dent Oral Epidemiol 2011. (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S Abstract Objectives: Previous studies have found an association between bruxism and emotional and behavioral problems in children, but reported data are inconsistent. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of bruxism, and of its components clenching and grinding, and its associations with mental problems and depression. Methods: Data from two Brazilian birth cohorts were analyzed: one from 869 children in Ribeirao Preto RP (Sao Paulo), a more developed city, and the other from 805 children in Sao Luis SL (Maranhao). Current bruxism evaluated by means of a questionnaire applied to the parents/persons responsible for the children was defined when the habit of tooth clenching during daytime and/or tooth grinding at night still persisted until the time of the assessment. Additionally, the lifetime prevalence of clenching during daytime only and grinding at night only was also evaluated. Mental health problems were investigated using the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and depression using the Childrens Depression Inventory (CDI). Analyses were carried out for each city: with the SDQ subscales (emotional symptoms, conduct problems, peer problems, attention/hyperactivity disorder), with the total score (sum of the subscales), and with the CDI. These analyses were performed considering different response variables: bruxism, clenching only, and grinding only. The risks were estimated using a Poisson regression model. Statistical inferences were based on 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: There was a high prevalence of current bruxism: 28.7% in RP and 30.0% in SL. The prevalence of clenching was 20.3% in RP and 18.8% in SL, and grinding was found in 35.7% of the children in RP and 39.1% in SL. Multivariable analysis showed a significant association of bruxism with emotional symptoms and total SDQ score in both cities. When analyzed separately, teeth clenching was associated with emotional symptoms, peer problems, and total SDQ score; grinding was significantly associated with emotional symptoms and total SDQ score in RP and SL. Female sex appeared as a protective factor for bruxism, and for clenching and grinding in RP. Furthermore, maternal employment outside the home and white skin color of children were associated with increased prevalence of teeth clenching in SL. Conclusions: Mental health problems were associated with bruxism, with teeth clenching only and grinding at night only. No association was detected between depression and bruxism, neither clenching nor grinding. But it is necessary to be cautious regarding the inferences from some of our results.